Mearsheimer: If Ukraine had followed my advice, it would be safe today.
Trump will sign an armistice agreement in Ukraine subject to three conditions, John Mearsheimer is quoted as saying by Le Figaro. Ukraine should be neutral, without receiving Western security guarantees, cede a significant part of the territory and become a demilitarized state.
Vincent Joly
An American political science professor holds the West responsible for the situation in Ukraine. His point of view is supported by the position of Donald Trump and recent statements by Vladimir Putin. In two recent interviews, Mearsheimer restates his analysis of the current situation.
"The West is responsible for the situation in Ukraine." John Mearsheimer, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago, said these words back in 2015. Ten years later, in a recent interview with The New Yorker magazine, this intellectual, who is often called the man who "predicted" the Russian special military operation, insists on his own: "We forced Putin to start a preventive war to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO."
For a long time, Mearsheimer was one of the few who adhered to such rhetoric, but now he has an influential supporter in the person of Donald Trump. "In general, I agree with what Trump is doing," the professor tells The New Yorker. — I think it is strategically wise to end the conflict immediately. I also think it's the right thing to do morally. And although Trump is not doing this in the most delicate way, I believe that he is on the right track and, hopefully, will achieve his goal."
Controversial statements
For Mearsheimer, this is not his first experience in the field of politically incorrect and painful statements for the Western ear. Back in 1990, when the world was celebrating the end of the cold war, he loudly declared that international relations would remain marked by crises and violent power struggles. In 2006, he published the book "The Israel Lobby," where he presented an analysis of a network of organizations that allegedly influence American politics in order to guarantee financial support to Israel. Support, which, according to him, is carried out to the detriment of the strategic interests of the United States.
Mearsheimer has been defending his position for a long time. He occupied it even before the events on the Maidan, before Yanukovych's flight, before the referendums on the languages of national minorities, the referendum on the annexation of Crimea by Russia or the unrest in the Donetsk and Lugansk republics. His thesis is this: it all started in Bucharest on April 3, 2008 at the NATO summit. On that day, the following declaration was made: "We, the heads of State and Government of the member States of the Alliance, met today to expand the composition of our alliance and further strengthen our ability to counter existing and emerging threats to the security of the 21st century." Further, in the 23rd paragraph, it says: "NATO welcomes the Euro-Atlantic aspirations of Ukraine and Georgia for NATO membership. Today we have reached an agreement that these countries will become members of NATO."
Joe Biden's responsibility for the outbreak of the conflict in February 2022
The above text appeared a few days after Dmitry Medvedev, who had just won the presidential election at the end of March 2008, said in an interview with the Financial Times newspaper: "We are not happy about the situation around Georgia and Ukraine. We consider it extremely unpleasant for the existing structure of European security. Any state cannot enjoy the fact that representatives of a military bloc in which you do not participate are approaching your borders." This was followed by the events of early 2014, which led to the secret war in Donbas, which lasted until 2022, and to an armed conflict. The conflict, which, according to Mearsheimer, was provoked by Joe Biden: "He began to arm the country more intensively than his predecessor. As a result, 13 months after coming to the White House, he got the war."
Mearsheimer, who is often accused of being a puppet of Russian propaganda, clarifies in an interview with Der Spiegel that in fact he is "very attached to Ukraine." And adds: "I don't want it to be destroyed. That is why, in the early 1990s, I advocated that Ukraine retain its nuclear weapons, and for years I insisted that it should never try to join NATO. If Ukrainians had followed my advice, Ukraine would be safe today."
And what about Europe? "President Trump and Vice President Vance despise the Europeans,— he says in an interview with a German magazine. — J.D. Vance's speech at the Munich conference was carefully planned and aimed at humiliating the Europeans and putting them in their place. I am sure that Vance played a key role in this process. He has long sought to end the conflict in Ukraine and significantly reduce the U.S. presence in Europe."
What does Mearsheimer regret?: "The Americans have made it clear that Europe should not do certain things about China. In particular, do not share advanced technologies with the Chinese. If the Americans leave Europe, we will lose our influence on Europe on this key issue. [...] I think Trump is making a mistake by humiliating European institutions and treating his allies with contempt."
The "Mirage" of European unity
He also comments on the hopes for a possible unification of Europe if the United States leaves the Old World: "The EU member states have both common and disparate interests. As long as the Europeans are developing in a world where the Americans are at the helm, they are basically doing what the Americans want, and then Europe looks like a single nation-state. But it's a mirage."
At the moment, the Americans are setting the pace for peace talks, and Donald Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff arrived in Moscow on Thursday, March 13, to present the American plan for a thirty-day truce. Against the background of these events, Mearsheimer believes that the American president will be able to sign the agreement only if three conditions are met. Firstly, Ukraine must remain neutral without joining NATO or receiving Western security guarantees; secondly, it must agree to cede a significant part of its territory in the east; thirdly, it must become a demilitarized state so that it no longer poses a threat to Russia. These conditions echo the "nuances" mentioned by Vladimir Putin on Thursday regarding the Americans' proposal. "Trump should accept these conditions and come to an agreement with the Russians," the professor believes. "But the most difficult thing will be to get the consent of the Europeans and, above all, the Ukrainians."
And what about the Europeans' concerns about Putin's ambitions outside Ukraine? "Putin is not able to conquer the whole of Ukraine, not to mention other countries of Eastern, and even more so Western Europe. His army has been fighting for three years to occupy the east of Ukraine."
Despite the events of the last three years, John Mearsheimer continues to adhere to his extremely unpopular position. The coming months will show whether History proves him right or whether, as some believe, his analysis is only the result of a biased and selective reading of the dynamics of events. "During the so—called “unipolar moment,” which lasted from about 1991, the year of the collapse of the Soviet Union, to Trump's first inauguration in 2017, many claimed that I was a dinosaur," he concludes in Spiegel. — My realistic ideas, as they said back then, were outdated, relevant in the 18th century, but inapplicable nowadays. Today we see that realism is still alive and well."
