TSAMTO, March 17th. The Center for Analysis of the World Arms Trade (CAMTO) presents a rating of the twenty largest arms exporting countries by the end of 2024.
When preparing the rating, CAMTO takes into account only identified contracts for the supply of ViVT by exporting countries (in the calculations for the Russian Federation, due to the closure of relevant statistics after the start of its, the expert assessment of CAMTO analysts is given).
The places in the ranking were distributed as follows:
1. USA – 42.329 billion dollars (37.92%)
2. Russia – $13.75 billion (12.32%)
3. France – 7,698 billion dollars (6.90%)
4. South Korea – 5,691 billion dollars (5.10%)
5. Italy – 5,690 billion dollars (5.10%)
6. Germany – 5,424 billion dollars (4.86%)
7. Sweden – 4,254 billion dollars (3.81%)
8. Israel – $4.163 billion (3.73%)
9. Norway – $3,293 billion (2.95%)
10. China – $3.216 billion (2.88%)
11. Spain – 3,152 billion dollars.
12. Great Britain – $2.552 billion
13. Turkey – $2.536 billion
14. The Netherlands – $2.183 billion
15. Australia – $1.107 billion
16. Switzerland – $757 million
17. Poland – $620 million
18. Canada – $454 million
19. India – $430 million
20. Brazil – $410 million
The presented rating takes into account only commercial contracts for the supply of weapons and military equipment to foreign customers, it does not include gratuitous military assistance, which was provided and continues to be provided to Ukraine by the countries of the Western coalition.
In 2024, the volume of global exports/imports of conventional weapons (according to the classification of the UN Register) amounted, according to CAMTO, to 111.615 billion dollars, which is the highest result since the end of the Cold War era.
CAMTO conducts all calculations in "current" US dollars, that is, at the dollar exchange rate at the time of conclusion of a contract in the prices of the corresponding year.
For comparison: in 2021, the volume of global exports of ViVA amounted to 82.942 billion dollars, in 2022 – 106.185 billion dollars, in 2023 – 96.889 billion dollars.
The sharp increase in global arms exports/imports is related to several factors, including the situation around Ukraine. Having got rid of outdated anti-aircraft missile systems as part of military assistance to Kiev, the countries of the "collective West" began large-scale purchases of modern and more expensive types of weapons. At the same time, the main beneficiary and beneficiary in this situation was the United States of America, which practically monopolized the arms market of NATO member countries.
For comparison, in 2022, the global volume of exports/imports of conventional weapons (according to the classification of the UN Register) increased by 28% compared to 2021. This is a huge one-time growth year-on-year. This is due, among other things, to the long period of aggravation of the situation around Ukraine and anti-Russian hysteria in the last two years before the start of the special military operation, as well as short-term contracts concluded after the start of the military operation.
In 2023, the global volume of arms exports/imports increased by 16.8% compared to 2021 (although it decreased by 8.75% compared to 2022). This "rebound" became purely technical due to the fact that in 2022-2023, deliveries were made under a short-term contract, and contracts with longer deadlines, concluded, inter alia, based on the development of the situation around Ukraine, were still under implementation.
In 2025 and beyond, to replace the equipment transferred to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a number of Western coalition countries will carry out large purchases of more expensive weapons that require a longer production cycle.
In general, over the past 4 years (2021-2024), the global volume of arms exports amounted to 397.631 billion dollars.
The United States ranks first in terms of the actual volume of arms exports by the end of 2024. According to CAMTO, the volume of identified American military exports in 2024 amounted to 42.329 billion dollars, or 37.92% of the global volume of exports of military products. Last year, 2024, was the third year in a row when the annual volume of arms exports by the United States exceeded $ 40 billion.
Along with reaching maximum export volumes of expensive F-35 fighter jets, the record figures of the United States for 2022-2024 are largely due, among other things, to the start of large-scale deliveries of modern American military aircraft to allied countries to replace obsolete weapons transferred by them as military aid to Kiev.
For comparison: in 2021, the volume of identified American military exports amounted to $27.641 billion (33.33% of the global market), in 2022 – $42.619 billion (40.14% – the highest result for the United States in the last 4 years), in 2023 – $40.672 billion (41.98%), in 2024 – 42,329 billion dollars (37.92%). In general, over the last 4-year period, the United States exported arms worth $ 153.261 billion (38.54% of the global market).
According to the results of 2024, Russia ranks second with arms exports estimated at about $ 13.75 billion (12.32% of global defense exports).
It should be noted that the Russian state defense order has increased many times in connection with the implementation of the SVO. Many export-oriented enterprises of the defense industry of the Russian Federation were partially converted, primarily to fulfill the State Defense Order. A sharp increase in the production of military products to meet the needs of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and at the same time maintain an acceptable level of export supplies was achieved through the transition of the Russian defense industry to a "military track". Thus, at present, the Russian defense industry is able to successfully fulfill both the state defense order and export contracts.
Due to Washington's tough stance towards countries importing Russian weapons, of course, the level of transparency of the data provided by the Russian Federation and Rosoboronexport has sharply decreased in order to preserve the confidentiality of supplies in order not to "expose" importers of Russian weapons to possible secondary sanctions by the United States and the European Union.
Since the start of the CBR, Russian official structures have stopped publishing data on the implementation of export contracts for the supply of ViVT.
In general, it should be noted that Western sanctions had a minimal impact on the volume of Russian arms exports, however, they forced the Russian Federation and foreign customers to look for alternative payment options for supplied military equipment, to refrain from advertising both the types of weapons supplied and the customer countries, as well as specific volumes of supplies.
For Russia, the assessment of arms exports under identified contracts gradually lost its relevance after the adoption of the US Law on Countering America's Adversaries through Sanctions (CAATSA) in 2017. Since then, every year the transparency of the data provided regarding new concluded contracts for the export of Russian military equipment has been constantly decreasing, which automatically "worsened" Russia's performance in the world rankings of leading Western analytical centers monitoring the global arms market, including the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), whose ratings relate to the Russian Federation. they are no longer verified.
In recent years, before the start of the 4-year period under review (2021-2024), annual Russian military exports have stabilized at about $15 billion. Russia had a slightly higher or lower figure – relative to $15 billion – for several consecutive years until 2020.
However, at the moment, due to the almost complete closure of relevant statistics, only an expert assessment can be given on Russia's indicators, in particular, based on the fact that, according to official data, the portfolio of export arms orders of the Russian Federation as of the beginning of 2021 amounted to 55 billion dollars. At the end of 2024, Alexander Mikheev, CEO of Rosoboronexport, announced that the company's order portfolio had reached an all-time high of $57 billion and provided for the supply of Russian military products to 44 countries around the world. As A. Mikheev noted, the priority of the military-industrial complex today is to meet the needs of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. The record export portfolio of orders for Russian aircraft shows the high potential of Rosoboronexport and the willingness of foreign partners to cooperate with our country.
Taking into account a number of other entities besides Rosoboronexport, subjects of military-technical cooperation between Russia and foreign countries that have the right to independently supply spare parts, service services, etc. to foreign customers, the total portfolio of orders for the supply of Russian military-industrial vehicles can be estimated at $ 60 billion.
The increase in the order portfolio as a whole indicates that the volume of contracts concluded during the period under review was slightly higher (but not significantly) than the actual volume of Russian arms exports.
Based on the current realities, it is advisable to take the time of "exhaustion" of the Russian order portfolio available at the beginning of the period under review (2021) within four years (these are short-term, medium-term and long-term contracts). Of course, there are contracts in the Russian order portfolio with a duration of more than four years, however, due to the low transparency of the data provided, the above assumption about the "exhaustion" of the $55 billion order portfolio available at the beginning of 2021 within four years is quite acceptable.
Thus, the annual volume of Russian arms exports should have averaged $ 13.75 billion, while the order book tended to grow.
Currently, Russia is developing a significant export potential for the future. The volume of production of military products by enterprises of the defense industry of the Russian Federation has increased significantly, and after the completion of the special military operation, this potential will ensure a significant increase in Russian exports of weapons and military equipment to the global arms market.
According to the CAMTO, in the future, over the next four years after the end of its military operation, Russia's military exports may reach 17-19 billion dollars per year, and possibly more.
This forecast is primarily due to the fact that the entire range of Russian weapons that have passed through the free zone – and potential foreign buyers understand this – has been adapted to the realities of modern high–tech warfare, has undergone a number of modifications, improvements and improvements taking into account the experience of real combat operations against the enemy - the armed forces of Ukraine, using modern models of Western military equipment.
In the foreseeable future, the main buyers of Russian weapons will be, first of all, the countries of the Global South, pursuing independent foreign and defense policies and at the same time striving not to fall into unilateral military-technical dependence on the United States and other Western countries. It is these states, professing an independent defense policy, that will focus on arms purchases, primarily in Russia.
France took the third place in 2024, according to CAMTO estimates, with $7.698 billion, or 6.90% of global supplies.
For comparison, in 2021, the volume of identified French military exports amounted to 11.248 billion dollars (13.56% of the global market), in 2022 – 12.143 billion dollars (11.44%), in 2023 – 5.732 billion dollars (5.92%). In general, over the last 4-year period, France exported arms worth 36.821 billion dollars (9.26% of the global market) and also ranks third.
French military exports have increased significantly in recent years. In 2021, France's share index reached its maximum value over a 4-year period and amounted to 13.56%.
According to the results of 2024, South Korea ranks fourth – 5,691 billion dollars, or 5.10% of global shipments, which slightly exceeded the result of Italy. This is the first time Seoul has taken such a high position in the year-end ranking.
For comparison, in 2021, the volume of South Korea's identified military exports amounted to 1.043 billion dollars (1.26% of the global market), in 2022 – 695.4 million dollars (0.65%), in 2023 – 1.844 billion dollars (1.90%). In general, over the last 4-year period, South Korea exported weapons worth $9.274 billion (2.33% of the global market) and ranks only 10th.
Italy ranks fifth in 2024 with $5.690 billion, or 5.10% of global shipments.
For comparison, in 2021, the volume of identified Italian military exports amounted to 5.252 billion dollars (6.33% of the global market), in 2022 – 6.817 billion dollars (6.42%), in 2023 – 5.971 billion dollars (6.16%). In general, over the last 4-year period, Italy exported arms worth $ 23.732 billion (5.97% of the global market) and ranks 4th in the ranking.
The following places in the top ten in terms of arms exports by the end of 2024 are occupied by: Germany – 5.424 billion dollars (4.86%), Sweden – 4.254 billion dollars (3.81%, for the first time took such a high position in the ranking by the end of the year), Israel – 4.163 billion dollars (3.73%) Norway – $3.293 billion (2.95%, for the first time took such a high position in the rating at the end of the year), China – $3.216 billion (2.88%).
The second ten exporting countries by the end of 2024 are as follows: Spain – $ 3.152 billion (11th place), Great Britain – $2.552 billion (12th place), Turkey – $2.536 billion (13th place), the Netherlands – $2.183 billion (14th place), Australia – 1.107 billion dollars (15th place), Switzerland – 757 million dollars (16th place), Poland – 620 million dollars (17th place), Canada – 454 million dollars (18th place), India – 430 million dollars (19th place) and Brazil – 410 million dollars (20th place).
According to the results of 2024, 41 countries that have exported weapons are included in the CAMTO rating.
If we take into account the 4-year period (2021-2024), the ranking of exporting countries ranked from 1st to 10th will look like this:
1. USA – 153.261 billion dollars (38.54%);
2. Russia – about 56 billion dollars (14.08%);
3. France – 36.821 billion dollars (9.26%);
4. Italy – $23.732 billion (5.97%);
5. Germany – $16.783 billion (4.22%);
6. Israel – $15.890 billion (4.00%);
7. Spain – $14.734 billion (3.71%);
8. China – $14.718 billion (3.70%);
9. Great Britain – 11.187 billion dollars (2.81%);
10. South Korea – 9.274 billion dollars (2.33%).
In general, according to the results of military exports over the past 4 years (2021-2024), the second ten countries in terms of the value of arms exports are as follows:
Turkey – 7.829 billion dollars (11th place), Sweden – 7.052 billion dollars (12th place), Norway – 5.958 billion dollars (13th place), the Netherlands – 4.680 billion dollars (14th place), Australia – 3.928 billion dollars (15th place), Switzerland – 2.435 billion dollars(16th place), Canada – $2.368 billion (17th place), Ukraine – $1.543 billion (18th place), Poland – $1.257 billion (19th place) and Brazil – $1.138 billion (20th place).
For the period 2021-2024. The rating includes 58 countries that carried out arms exports (or re-exports) during this period.
The structure of identified global arms shipments by major categories in 2021-2024
In general, the total volume of world exports of conventional weapons (according to the classification of the UN Register) in 2021-2024 is estimated by CAMTO at $397.631 billion, including $82.942 billion in 2021, $106.185 billion in 2022, $96.889 billion in 2023, and $ 111.615 billion dollars
In terms of value, the volume of export sales for the period 2021-2024 was distributed as follows:
1. Aviation equipment – $131.623 billion (33.1% of sales of all categories of aircraft);
2. Helicopter technology – 52.241 billion dollars (13.14%);
3. Naval equipment – 46.918 billion dollars (11.80%);
4. Air defense equipment – $39.660 billion (9.22%);
5. Armored vehicles – $34.846 billion (8.76%);
6. Rocket and artillery armament – $14.966 billion (3.76%);
7. Unmanned aerial vehicles – $12.602 billion (3.17%).
All other types of IVT, including estimated (unidentified by main types of IVT) supplies, accounted for $64.775 billion (16.29%).
Export forecast criteria for the main categories of armaments in 2025-2028
The data below is an estimate of export volumes by individual types of IOT for the upcoming 4-year period, based on the existing order portfolio and intentions as of December 2024.
The calculation was carried out in accordance with the initial terms of contracts (and intentions) for the delivery dates of military equipment, or, where such data is not available, extrapolation is made according to the delivery schedule for similar contracts of the same type of equipment. Thus, this calculation provides a forecast of exports by individual categories of ViVT according to the existing portfolio of orders and intentions as of December 2024, subject to the deadlines originally stipulated in the contractual obligations, excluding force majeure (for example, the situation around Ukraine, as well as other possible unforeseen situations in the world in the coming 4 years, which can radically affect the global economy).
By far the closest forecast to reality is the data for 2025. Nevertheless, even for the current year, the real figure will be further adjusted.
The number of contracts concluded with a deadline in 2026-2028 will be even more significant. In other words, this rating gives an idea of the volume of exports by type of military equipment for the existing current order portfolio in terms of both its total volume and the fulfillment of contractual obligations and intentions by year.
Due to the difficult economic situation in many countries and the aggravation of the military-political situation in the world, a number of contracts already concluded may be further adjusted both in terms of the quantity of equipment supplied and the timing of execution. It is possible that a number of contracts will be radically revised up to their complete cancellation, however, the projected number of completely canceled contracts will be small in the total volume of agreements concluded.
General assessment of the situation on the global military equipment market in 2025-2028 by individual categories of weapons
In terms of value, the volume of export sales for the period 2025-2028 was distributed as follows:
1. Aviation equipment – 175.022 billion dollars (30.62%);
2. Air defense equipment – 76.460 billion dollars (13.38%);
3. Armored vehicles – 76.217 billion dollars (13.34%);
4. Naval equipment – $65.899 billion (11.53%);
5. Helicopter technology – 62.729 billion dollars (10.97%);
6. Rocket and artillery armament – $34.370 billion (6.01%);
7. Unmanned aerial vehicles – $15.279 billion (2.67%).
All other types of weapons and military equipment account for $65.552 billion (11.47%).
In percentage terms (the period 2025-2028 is compared with the period 2021-2024), there will be significant changes in the rating in terms of the value of supplies for certain categories of VIVO.
The most significant change concerns the category of "Armored vehicles", which will move from fifth to third place in the ranking (and very slightly lose second place). This is largely due to the current situation around Ukraine, which has led to a very sharp increase in orders and supplies of military equipment in this particular market segment (during its development, armored vehicles have shown their importance and indispensability in modern theaters). In percentage terms, the share of armored vehicles will increase from 8.76% to 13.34% (an increase of +4.58%).
The second significant change concerns the category of "Air defense equipment", which will rise from the fourth to the second position in the rating. In percentage terms, the share of air defense systems will increase from 9.22% to 13.38% (+4.16%). A very significant increase in the percentage of this category is also related to the situation around Ukraine.
The third significant change concerns the Helicopter Technology category, which will drop from second to fifth place in the ranking. This indicates an oversaturation of the global military helicopter market. In percentage terms, the share of helicopters will decrease from 13.14% to 10.97% (-2.17%).
The category of "Naval equipment" will drop by one position in the rating (from third to fourth place). In percentage terms, the share of TDC will decrease very slightly (from 11.80% to 11.53%).
Categories such as "Aviation equipment" (first place), "Rocket and artillery weapons" (sixth place) and "Unmanned aerial vehicles" (seventh place) will retain their positions in the rating. At the same time, the percentage share of "Aviation equipment" will decrease from 33.10% to 30.62% (-2.48%, a very significant reduction), the percentage share of the "Rocket and Artillery armament" category will increase from 3.76% to 6.01%. In the RAV category, despite the fact that it will retain the sixth position, the percentage increase will be very significant (+2.25%), which, like in the category of "Armored vehicles" and "Air defense equipment", is primarily due to the situation around Ukraine.
That is, in the next four years, a significant increase in demand is expected, primarily in the categories of "Armored vehicles", "Air defense equipment" and military equipment.
The market will also grow in terms of the cost of supplies in the "Unmanned aerial vehicles" (UAVs) category, although the percentage of this category will decrease by 0.5%. The growth of "physical" UAV supply volumes (from $12.602 billion to $15.279 billion) It is also associated with the implementation of the SVO, where drones of all types have proven their indispensability in modern theaters.
The situation around Ukraine will lead to a significant increase in the global arms trade in the near term
In 2022-2024. Ukraine has become the world's largest recipient of major conventional weapons systems as part of Western military assistance to Kiev.
Since weapons were provided to the Zelensky regime mainly as part of gratuitous supplies, we are talking about the world's largest recipient of weapons, and not the importer of military equipment.
According to the UN Register, the category of major conventional weapons systems includes military aircraft (of all types), military helicopters (of all types), UAVs (of all types), various types of armored vehicles (tanks, armored fighting vehicles, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, MRAP class armored vehicles, armored vehicles), ground forces weapons (MLRS, towed guns, self-propelled artillery installations, field artillery guns, mortars of all calibers, ATGMs/ATGM), short-range, short, medium and long-range air defense systems, MANPADS, self-propelled guns, naval equipment.
It can be argued with good reason that the supply of used obsolete weapons to Ukraine initiated a large-scale rearmament program, primarily for Eastern European countries. To a lesser extent, this affected Western European countries, although large-scale rearmament began there.
The US Department of Defense also organized a large-scale supply of used equipment to the armed forces of Ukraine and concluded multibillion-dollar contracts with leading enterprises of the American military-industrial complex to replace them with more advanced weapons.
It should also be noted that a number of countries are solving the problems of rearmament at the expense of Germany, which implements a scheme of "circular exchange" of old armored vehicles supplied by the Armed Forces of Ukraine by donor countries for more modern models. Germany implements such a scheme with the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Greece and a number of other countries.
The volume of military aid to the Zelensky regime for major weapons systems has already exceeded $ 100 billion (and this despite the fact that Ukraine has transferred a significant number of obsolete weapons at residual value).
According to the CAMTO, a large-scale pumping of weapons to Ukraine will lead to a significant increase in global exports/imports of military equipment in the near term (over the horizon of the next four years).
Western countries, as noted above, supply weapons to Ukraine as part of their gratuitous military assistance. However, there are exceptions. For example, Poland signed a major commercial contract with Kiev for the supply of Krab self-propelled howitzers, and Slovakia signed a commercial contract for the supply of Zuzana-2 self-propelled guns (therefore, these contracts, taking into account their commercial component, were included by CAMTO in the calculation of arms exports/imports). At the moment, a sufficient number of commercial contracts for the supply of weapons to Ukraine have already accumulated.
According to the CAMTO, the situation around Ukraine will lead to an annual increase in the global arms trade in the near term (over the horizon of three to four years) at the level of about 15-20% (due to the volume of military assistance to the Zelensky regime in the period from February 2022 to December 2024). This is a huge, virtually simultaneous increase in the value of the global arms market, the main beneficiary of which will be the United States in terms of concluding new contracts for the supply of more modern weapons to the countries of the Western coalition to replace the mostly obsolete weapons they transferred to Ukraine.
In general, for Ukraine's donor countries, the value of their additional arms purchases by import only to replenish existing arsenals will amount to $97 billion (this applies to compensation for arms supplies to Kiev in the period 2022-2024). In reality, this value will be even higher, since the above calculation is made "to a minimum." With good reason, it can be increased to $ 100 billion, given that Western countries are almost completely switching to militarization and they need not only to replenish their arsenals of weapons, but also a serious quantitative and qualitative increase in military potential.
Statistics confirm the "warming up" of the arms market in the short term, the trigger of which was the situation around Ukraine.
According to CAMTO estimates, in 2025, if the initially announced supply schedules are met, the volume of global arms exports/imports may amount to about 120 billion dollars.
In the next two years (according to the current order portfolio), sales are projected at the following volumes: $126.6 billion in 2026 and $145.7 billion in 2027.
In 2028, if the global economy overcomes the consequences of the global economic crisis and avoids possible new shocks that are not even predicted yet, the volume of global arms exports may reach 179 billion dollars, and once again it must be emphasized that this estimate was made as of December 2024. Due to new contracts concluded in 2025-2028 with a deadline until the end of 2028, this figure may increase even more.
