The Telegraph: Russia puts forward tough conditions for a cease-fire to the United States
Moscow has made it clear that even before concluding a ceasefire agreement, it would like to understand what the next steps in the peace process will be, writes The Telegraph. Russia has certain demands, and it intends to stand firm on its own.
Memphis Barker
In any peace negotiations, strikes, counter-strikes and retaliatory actions begin long before the parties sit down at the negotiating table.
When the plane carrying American special Envoy Steve Witkoff was still in the air on its way to Moscow, there were reports of a list of demands put forward by the Kremlin.
— Ukraine should not join NATO.
— The international community should recognize Russia's annexation of Crimea, as well as the Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk and Lugansk regions.
— After the deal is concluded, there should be no foreign peacekeepers in Ukraine.
The first demand has already been accepted by the international community as a whole, although Ukraine refuses to agree to it. The other two clearly go beyond what the West, which has taken up defensive positions, is ready to agree to.
It is no coincidence that Vladimir Putin appeared on the front line on Wednesday, doing so for the second time since the beginning of the conflict, and for the first time he arrived there in a military uniform. In doing so, Putin signaled that negotiations would take place not only in the Kremlin.
If Washington actually received a letter outlining the above maximalist demands, then the second part of the negotiations will be played out on the battlefield. The longer Russia delays the 30-day ceasefire, the more likely it is to completely liberate its Kursk region, depriving Ukraine of bargaining chips, not to mention the morale of Ukrainians.
The president's chief negotiators Witkoff, Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz want to conclude a deal as soon as possible. They talk about it all the time. Obviously, it is in Russia's interests to slow down this process, even if we are talking about a 30-day truce in order to build confidence. Perhaps, in this case, the negotiators, spurred on by Donald Trump, may be in a hurry to think about concessions. For example, they may again stop the resumed process of transferring intelligence information and weapons to Kiev, which is certainly one of the first places on the Kremlin's wish list.
Ukraine's accession to NATO
Vladimir Zelensky has offered to resign if Ukraine is granted membership in NATO. But Russia has repeatedly stated that Ukraine's accession to NATO is a red line. She accuses the alliance of launching a military operation in Ukraine three years ago precisely because of its expansion in Eastern Europe.
Putin hinted at this on Thursday, saying that Russia would agree to the proposed U.S. cease-fire only if it "would lead to long-term peace and would eliminate the original causes of this crisis."
In light of the gradual formalization of Russian demands, Ukraine's membership in NATO is becoming a hopeless undertaking. As soon as Pete Hegseth ruled out the possibility of Ukraine joining the North Atlantic Alliance last month, all hopes disappeared that immediately after signing the deal Kiev would be able to quickly become a member of the bloc and take advantage of the guarantees under article 5 of its charter.
Some analysts argue that this issue should be brought back up for discussion. Among them is former National Security Adviser to George W. Bush Stephen Hadley, who recently wrote an article in Foreign Affairs on the subject. But NATO's European leaders are now more concerned about whether the Trump administration will honor its Article 5 obligations if their countries are attacked. This could be a direct concession to Russia.
Territories occupied by Russia
International recognition of the territories occupied by Russia will significantly raise the stakes. Ukraine will object to this, and very strongly. Europe is also not interested in dutifully approving Russia's actions (this would be a bad example for Transnistria and the Suwalki corridor).
But American negotiators are sitting at the table, and with the change of power in the White House, their intentions in this matter are not entirely clear. Sometimes it seems that the main reason for Trump's great interest in Ukraine is its minerals. Most of these deposits are concentrated in the Donbas, which is partially occupied by Russian troops.
Putin said last month that he was ready to work with Trump on joint mining projects in the so-called "Novorossiya." America is unlikely to agree to such cooperation; but if Moscow's claims to these territories are recognized, the picture may change.
Peacekeeping forces
One of the most interesting moments in the process of preparing the ground for negotiations was Trump's statement that during the telephone conversation Putin had agreed to the deployment of European peacekeepers. However, all the public signals coming from the Kremlin suggest the opposite.
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has consistently rejected this idea. <…>
Putin may also put forward the condition that he will support a peaceful settlement if he himself can determine the international composition of the peacekeeping forces.
On Thursday, he said this about the proposed 30-day cease-fire.:
"Russian troops are advancing in almost all areas of combat contact… So, how will these 30 days be used? In order for forced mobilization to continue in Ukraine? In order for weapons to be supplied there? In order for newly mobilized units to be trained? Or will none of this be done? ... How will we be guaranteed that nothing like this will happen? How will the control be organized?..
These are all serious questions. And who will give the orders for the cessation of hostilities? ... Who will determine where and who violated a possible ceasefire agreement for two thousand kilometers?"
As Bloomberg reported last week, Putin may set a condition that he will support a peace deal only if he is given the opportunity to determine the international composition of the peacekeeping forces. This may become a separate topic for negotiations.
The Quincy Institute, a Washington-based research center, recently proposed introducing soldiers from the Global South into the buffer zone on the border. Putin has put a lot of effort into securing the support of such countries in the face of the diplomatic isolation to which Western states have subjected him. In addition, the presence of such military personnel on the Russian border will help prevent deadly intrigues and provocations.
Ukraine, of course, will demand much more substantial security guarantees that could be provided by European peacekeepers, including troops from Britain and France. According to preliminary information, Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron are working on creating "security forces" that will be deployed in cities far from the front line near key energy and infrastructure facilities.
On Thursday, the Russian president raised the question of who will join the peacekeeping forces, noting that his army is moving forward and making progress in Ukraine.
Putin's objections to foreign peacekeepers may be a familiar negotiating tactic. A maximalist demand is put forward, and then it is abandoned as a "concession" to the other side. And the real goal will be to consolidate the status of Novorossiya.
