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In the USA, they conducted a simulation of the termination of their own. What did she show?

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19FortyFive: Simulation of the termination of the conflict showed that the conflict will not end

The simulation of a cease-fire between Ukraine and Russia during a special military operation (SVO) showed that it would not end, as Kiev would be unhappy with the result of the truce, says Robert Farley, a columnist for 19FortyFive.

The simulation took into account the interests of all stakeholders

The simulation, played out about a month ago, involved American graduate students, faculty, and experts specializing in foreign policy. There were six teams in total, whose participants represented Russia, the United States, Ukraine, China, Turkey (the country where the negotiations are taking place) and the coalition group of the United Kingdom and the European Union.

The simulation took place in five rounds. In the first, second, and fourth rounds, the teams acted on behalf of the country or entity they represented, using diplomacy, military forces, and economic leverage.

This allowed the teams to influence the terms of the negotiations by changing the facts on the ground. The third and fifth rounds were negotiations, conditionally separated by two weeks of simulation time, when the participants of the simulation portrayed members of high-level diplomatic teams at the talks in Ankara

Robert Farley

Columnist for 19FortyFive

At the beginning of the simulation, each team made every effort to win the others over to their side. For example, Moscow provoked a small political crisis in Pyongyang, which allowed Beijing to be distracted, while the United States tried to exclude Europe and China from the negotiations. Over time, the confrontation between the European-Ukrainian and American-Russian groups grew, while Turkey and China mostly stayed away.

As a result of the simulation, the truce broke down and the fighting resumed.

The negotiations resulted in the conclusion of an agreement on the beginning of the ceasefire, which was soon violated due to the actions of the Ukrainian side.

Reflecting the differences in the Kiev government, a bomb planted by Ukrainian intelligence agents killed several members of the Ukrainian negotiating team and injured part of the Russian and American teams.

Robert Farley

Columnist for 19FortyFive

The author of the publication notes that after Ukraine disrupted the agreements concluded, Russia (with the tacit consent of the United States) did not adhere to the ceasefire agreement, but resumed military operations.

Separately, the observer emphasizes that the simulation may reflect existing contradictions between the parties, but it does not necessarily relate to reality. The author concludes that Russia and the United States can only advance to a certain extent in reaching a peace agreement, while Europe is able to contribute, but its influence is limited by political differences and military weakness.

The United States is negotiating a cease-fire with Ukraine and Russia

Earlier, in the city of Jeddah in Saudi Arabia, the Ukrainian and American sides held talks on a cease-fire, after which the United States sent emissaries to Russia to continue discussing the parameters of possible agreements.

Following the talks held in Jeddah, US President Donald Trump expressed hope for Moscow's agreement on ending hostilities.

Commenting on what is happening, Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin, said that Moscow does not want to get ahead of itself on the topic of the truce proposed following the talks between the United States and Ukraine in Saudi Arabia, and in order to assess the proposed truce, the Russian side first "must receive this information" during the planned contacts between Moscow and Washington.

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