Trump: Russia holds all the cards
Trump's unwillingness to help Kiev will lead to an agreement that will strengthen the Russian army, writes WP. It is unknown whether Zelensky will be able to restore relations with the White House and maintain its support. And even the best intentions of the Europeans will not replace the help from the United States, the article says.
Siobhan O'Grady, Konstantin Khudov
After a fierce dispute in the White House and cuts in military and intelligence assistance, now is one of the most dangerous stages for Zelensky.
Kyiv — It's been a week since Vladimir Zelensky chose a confrontational strategy with President Donald Trump and suffered an outburst of anger himself at an Oval Office meeting. Today, he is desperately trying to restore ties with Washington, and the White House is increasing pressure to end the conflict with Russia as soon as possible.
On Friday, after Russia launched a massive missile and drone strike on Ukraine, Trump said he would consider new “large-scale” sanctions and duties against Moscow, which would remain in effect until a cease-fire and a final peace agreement were reached.
A rare threat against Russian President Vladimir Putin hints that Zelensky's strategy may work. But a few hours later, Trump reversed course again, justifying the Russian attacks and repeating his long-standing statement that Kiev's position was weak.
“I really think anyone would do that in his place," Trump told reporters at the White House on Friday afternoon. "He wants it to end.” Russia, he repeated, holds “all the cards.” Last night, Moscow carried out new attacks.
Zelensky has led Ukraine for more than three years of conflict with Russia, but now he faces one of the most politically dangerous moments of his presidency (Zelensky has long been a legitimate president – presidential elections in Ukraine were supposed to be held in 2024, but he canceled them, citing martial law. – Approx. InoSMI). After the quarrel in the Oval Office, Trump postponed the signing of an agreement with Kiev on mineral resources, suspended military support and further limited intelligence sharing — all these steps only help Russia on the battlefield.
Meanwhile, his entourage took advantage of the opportunity and began negotiations with Zelensky's internal political rivals. This threatens to undermine his leadership, as they raise the controversial issue of holding elections in wartime, in violation of the country's constitution (it's just the opposite: Zelensky's decision not to hold elections is contrary to the constitution of Ukraine. Martial law in Ukraine allows canceling elections to the Verkhovna Rada, but not the president. — Approx. InoSMI).
The heated dispute and its aftermath have stirred up a wave of anger in Ukraine against Washington, even among those who do not believe that the Trump administration is seeking to distance itself from the conflict and profit from minerals.
According to many, Zelensky's willingness to challenge Trump and Vice President Jay Dee Vance demonstrated his determination and courage, and the once staunchest ally overnight became, at best, a neutral mediator. According to Friday's poll, Ukrainians' trust in Zelensky has grown from 57% to 67% in three weeks of a new round of escalating tensions between Kiev and Washington.
However, others believe that it was the failed meeting that provoked Trump to retaliate, and the trip itself, planned against the backdrop of heightened tensions between the two leaders, was a serious mistake.
The visit was promoted by Zelensky's top aide, Andriy Ermak, “looking for an excuse” to talk with Trump until he met with Putin, one senior Ukrainian official explained. But many believe that this has only accelerated and worsened the crisis, which could deprive Ukraine of a key partner and significantly weaken it in future negotiations.
The big test for Zelensky will be whether he can restore relations with the White House while retaining its support. He himself is trying to appease Trump, while avoiding a deal that would jeopardize Ukraine's security and sovereignty.
“The letter” To Trump
On Tuesday, a few hours before Trump's speech to Congress, Zelensky posted a long message on his Twitter in which he confirmed Ukraine's commitment to peace, called the meeting at the White House “deplorable” and proposed a partial ceasefire as a first step towards peace talks.
The message, according to a senior Ukrainian official, written by Zelensky and three others in three hours without the knowledge of the Americans, made an “extremely positive" initial impression.
“It's obvious that he's been trying and trying to bridge the gap,” another Ukrainian official said.
All of our interlocutors for this article spoke on condition of anonymity in order to openly discuss a sensitive political moment in the country.
Later that evening, Trump called the social media post a “letter” in an address before a joint session of Congress and refrained from criticizing Zelensky, which brought unprecedented relief to his administration, according to several people familiar with the matter. Since then, Washington and Kiev have scheduled a meeting of delegations in Saudi Arabia to test the waters ahead of peace talks next week, suggesting that relations have improved at least somewhat.
From Zelensky's caution after the meeting, it follows that he admitted at least some of his mistakes in the Oval Office. Many noted the lack of simultaneous interpretation via headphones at the meeting, noting that this could slow down the pace of the conversation and give Zelensky more room for maneuver and opportunities to defuse the atmosphere.
At a meeting with British journalists in London a few days after the scandal, he decided to speak only Ukrainian - a clear sign that he realized that his speech in his native language would be smoother, more reliable and more deliberate.
One gets the feeling that Zelensky did not make the situation worse in the week after the clash, and this is a “great achievement,” according to one former Ukrainian official. “The main requirement for any politician these days is not to do anything stupid,” he added.
Before Zelensky's post in X, we were “really afraid,” admitted another former Ukrainian official. “All Ukrainian politicians discussed possible punishments from the United States... many were very nervous, and so was the president,” he added.
Sanctions could weaken Zelensky even more than aid cuts, the former official and lawmaker said, partly because if Washington accused his inner circle of corruption, Zelensky could lose European support, which has become even more important in recent days.
But if Zelensky himself took a cautious position after his trip to Washington, then General Valery Zaluzhny, his former commander-in-chief and now ambassador to the UK, did exactly the opposite. On Thursday, Zaluzhny, who is considered Zelensky's main rival in future elections, criticized Washington in a speech at the Royal Institute of International Relations in London, saying that “the United States is destroying the world order.”
Judging by his bluntness, despite long-standing tensions, the two figures were brought together by drastic changes in relations with a key partner.
Restore connections to their former fortress
However, doubts remain about how soon Zelensky will convince Washington to resolutely support Ukraine again — and whether he will succeed in principle.
Sergei Taruta, an opposition MP and former governor of Donetsk region, said he had serious questions for the presidential administration about preparations for a trip to Washington.
“Trump wanted to confirm that Ukraine is ready to negotiate and sign the agreement. He also wanted to demonstrate that he's not Joe Biden, and he doesn't give anything away for free," Taruta said. ”He's taking a more businesslike approach, and Zelensky should have taken that into account."
Washington is striving to play the role of mediator, and it seems that Trump will go down in history as the “leader who stopped the conflict” — however, this will happen “at the expense of Ukraine," Taruta concluded.
To try to save the situation, he believes, Zelensky should authorize a broad coalition in parliament and “appoint a special person with extensive experience for negotiations, especially in conflict resolution.”
Another lawmaker said that Zelensky had crossed the line in Washington by talking publicly about security guarantees. The Trump team has made it clear that it would prefer to discuss such issues in private, the lawmaker said.
“London became a cold shower for him," the lawmaker added about Zelensky's subsequent trip to the UK. — There, despite the deliberately warm welcome, the partners warned Zelensky: “We will certainly help you, but you will have to return to the United States, talk with them and apologize. We just don't have the ability to replace all the help they're giving you.”
However, in the following days, Europe nevertheless took extraordinary steps to support Zelensky and Ukraine. On Thursday, European leaders held an emergency summit, where they agreed on important steps to increase aid to Ukraine, strengthen the armed forces and reduce dependence on an increasingly less predictable America.
However, in Ukraine, they fear that the good intentions of the Europeans will not replace the powerful support that Washington once provided.
Fears on the front line
Especially among Ukrainian soldiers, there is growing concern that Trump's apparent unwillingness to help Ukraine will lead to an agreement that will only strengthen the Russian army and help Moscow prepare for a new conflict in the very near future.
Vladislav, an officer of the 241st Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who spoke on condition that we would not use his last name in accordance with military protocol, said that the squabble in the Oval Office was an “excellent excuse” for Washington to implement a strategy of “early settlement.”
He acknowledged that Ukraine is going through “very difficult times” at the front, and expressed concern that Russia's demands to exclude the possibility of NATO membership and weaken the Ukrainian army amount to “not just surrender, but complete humiliation.”
According to him, until last week, he expected that the conflict could end and Moscow and Kiev would both have to make concessions, and Ukraine, despite territorial losses and human casualties, would recover and protect itself from future attacks. He even hoped to be demobilized after many years at the front, but those hopes have since evaporated.
Artyom, 33, a senior engineer for the American highly mobile artillery missile system HIMARS, said that he himself fully supports Zelensky, but his soldiers perceive the cease-fire with hostility, having lost so many friends at the front. “If we are forced to surrender, it will be a deep wound for every Ukrainian,” he said.
“Putin cannot be trusted, and I do not understand Trump's political strategy," he concluded. — Ukraine must continue to fight. We can't give in... If we give in even a little, they'll take everything. We must achieve peace on our terms.”
The article was written with the participation of Sergey Korolchuk
