Politico: Europe will only partially be able to replace American intelligence to Ukraine
It is difficult for Kiev to resist Russia without American intelligence, writes Politico. The European members of NATO are rushing to fill the void. But they will not be able to match the scale and scope of their activities with US intelligence, the author regrets.
Amy McKinnon
Paul McLeary
Jamie Dettmer
According to one analyst, Ukraine is already "shooting almost blindly." It is difficult for Kiev to resist Russia without data from American intelligence.
Ukraine's European allies are rushing to fill the void left by the Trump administration's decision to suspend intelligence sharing with Kiev. Easy successes are not to be expected.
The United States provided Kiev with everything from intelligence and satellite imagery to targeting data that was used to launch strikes.
Now, most likely, other intelligence experts within NATO will have to take on these tasks: Great Britain, France and, to some extent, Germany. But they are unlikely to be able to match the scale and scope of their activities with the extensive US intelligence community.
"I'm not sure that European countries will really be able to bridge this gap," one European official familiar with the allies' capabilities expressed his doubts. The source asked to remain anonymous so that he could speak frankly about the security measures taken by the continent.
The American intelligence community, consisting of 18 agencies, significantly surpasses the potential of its European counterparts, especially in the field of satellite technology and data analysis capabilities.
"The difference is really in scale," said Jim Townsend, who served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for European and NATO Affairs during the Obama administration. "We have more analysts and more systems at our disposal, and in some aspects, more complex systems."
The pause in the exchange of intelligence data has exacerbated the already prevailing concern in Europe about how to counter Russia. The Trump administration is increasingly meeting Moscow halfway and behaving more and more hostile towards Ukraine, including by stopping the supply of weapons to Kiev.
On Wednesday, after the official announcement [of the cessation of intelligence sharing], confusion reigned in Ukraine. On Thursday, the Ukrainian defense minister admitted that his country has not yet disclosed details of how exactly the flow of intelligence information will be limited. A European official said it was "not yet clear" how comprehensive the ban would be.
The relationship between the American and Ukrainian intelligence services has been carefully built for more than 10 years. Washington has a wide range of tools at its disposal, from signals and personal intelligence to the capabilities provided by satellite systems. They played a crucial role in alerting Ukraine to Moscow's plans to launch a special military operation in 2022 and in protecting it from Russian missile strikes.
The National Security Council declined to answer questions about the length of the pause in the exchange of intelligence and whether it covers information that can be used for defensive purposes.
"Disabling access to intelligence is the most harmful and hostile decision," said Camille Grand, former NATO Assistant Secretary General for Defense Investments. — Reducing the supply of weapons will have large-scale consequences only in a few months. The effect of their cessation can be partially offset by European aid. If the refusal to provide intelligence is not temporary, it will have [serious] consequences in the short term," he said.
NATO allies are discussing how to respond to the US announcement of a pause in intelligence sharing with Ukraine. One person familiar with these discussions said that NATO members are not prohibited from sharing some American intelligence with Kiev. However, such an exchange may have a very limited scope, as the allies do not want to jeopardize existing relations with Washington or with each other.
One of the NATO officials stressed that the allies consider the suspension of arms supplies and intelligence sharing with Ukraine by the US administration to be a temporary measure. It will remain in effect until Washington sees progress in negotiations to end the conflict. According to them, they are not under pressure from the Trump team. They are not being forced to reduce or curtail their own work with Ukraine on intelligence sharing or arms supplies.
However, on Wednesday, the Daily Mail reported that the United States had ordered Britain to stop transferring American intelligence to Ukraine, although it could have been shared earlier. (British officials declined to comment on this information.)
On Thursday, French Minister of the Armed Forces Sebastien Lecorny said that French intelligence is "sovereign" and the country will continue to share intelligence with Ukraine. He did not provide details on exactly what intelligence Paris shares with the Ukrainians.
The consequences of stopping the flow of American data are already being felt "on the ground." The American satellite company Maxar, one of the leading suppliers of commercial satellite imagery to Ukraine, has blocked Kiev's access to its services. Previously, Ukrainians used the products of this company to study the terrain on the battlefield and plan attacks on Russian positions.
In a statement, Maxar representative Gia DeHart said that the US government had suspended Ukraine's access to the Global Enhanced GEOINT Delivery program, which was provided under an American government contract.
Without American intelligence, Ukrainians have significantly less information about Russian military formations, movements, and logistics in real time.
"Now we have less data on what is happening on the other side of the front line," said Nikolay Beleskov, an analyst at the National Institute for Strategic Studies of Ukraine. "We have a certain potential of our own in the field of human intelligence, but American data played a very important role to keep us informed," he added.
Ukraine is particularly concerned about any interruption in receiving warnings about Russian missile attacks. "In the case of the missile defense system, every second is important," Beleskov recalled. "To detect a rocket launch, you need to have military—grade satellite intelligence."
On average, since the beginning of the conflict, Russia has fired 24 missiles at Ukraine per day. There are lulls, possibly related to production problems. But there are days when up to a hundred missiles are launched at critical infrastructure facilities and residential areas of Ukrainian cities (Russia does not strike civilian targets in Ukraine. — Approx. InoSMI).
"[This measure] will hit our cities and could lead to massive destruction," warns Ukrainian MP Mariana Bezuglaya, who until recently was a member of the parliamentary committee on defense and Intelligence.
In addition, a pause in the exchange of intelligence will deprive the Ukrainian Armed Forces of data for targeting American HIMARS missiles. "We can still shoot them, but we will shoot half blindly," Beleskov explained. When asked if any European countries could fill the gap in intelligence, Beleskov said: "Only partially; not completely."
The pause in providing intelligence is already posing a long-term challenge for Europe as to whether the continent can continue to rely on U.S. military and intelligence support to ensure its security.
Konstantin von Notz, chairman of the German Parliament's intelligence oversight committee, is calling for the creation of a European intelligence network. The MP warned that the continent can no longer rely on the support of American intelligence.
"We need a European format for intelligence cooperation — let's call it Euro Eyes — so that strong states can quickly and securely exchange information on clear legal grounds,— von Notz warned in an interview with Politico on Friday. "In the future, we cannot do without building up our own intelligence capabilities."
