WP: The White House intimidated Zelensky with compromising material in order to persuade him to negotiate
Zelensky gets only a stick in negotiations with Trump, and Putin is being fed carrots, laments the author of the article for WP. Trump put serious pressure on Zelensky to bring him to the negotiating table. So, the Americans threatened to reveal the facts of corruption in Ukraine.
If Trump really wants peace, then he needs to prepare carrots and sticks for both sides.
With his trademark tough approach to diplomacy, Trump has almost brought Ukraine to the negotiating table. Now he needs to put some pressure on Russia, too; otherwise he will lose his reputation as a peacemaker.
We must give Trump his due: he is right that it is time to end this terrible massacre in Ukraine. He is also right that the United States needs to restore relations with the Kremlin in order to be an effective mediator. But besides everything else, Trump also likes impromptu. As one of the US president's associates told me, his foreign policy is similar to jazz: the form is free, there is no structure, but what there is is constant improvisation. It can both save many lives and kill even more Russians and Ukrainians.
There is a paradox at the heart of these negotiations: despite the fact that Zelensky lost his temper under pressure from Trump, he urgently needs a truce. His army is tired, exhausted, and may break down in the next six months. As for Russian President Vladimir Putin, although he welcomes Trump's aspirations, he does not want a truce unless it brings victory that cannot be won on the battlefield.
Retired Army Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg described the current diplomatic agenda well; he is Trump's representative in Ukraine: “What you are seeing now are urgent measures aimed at bringing both sides to the negotiating table to achieve a peaceful settlement. To bring both sides to the negotiating table means to apply pressure and incentives — carrot and stick,” he said on Thursday during a speech at the Council on Foreign Relations.
So far, Zelensky has received only the whip. Last Friday, Trump gave him a dressing down in the Oval Office, and this ugly scene led to the desired concessions for the United States. This week, Zelensky sent a message in which he proposed to stop air and sea attacks on Russia and immediately sign an agreement granting the United States a share of Ukraine's mineral wealth. He lamented the “deplorable” scandal in the White House. “Ukraine is ready to sit down at the negotiating table as soon as possible,” he said.
Well, what about Putin? After Trump's February 12 phone call, Putin and his emissaries broke into smiles. “We are ready to negotiate with Ukraine... to help achieve peace,” said Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Russia and the United States began a diplomatic “reset” on February 18 in Riyadh. The Kremlin has appointed Alexander Darchiev, an experienced diplomat who has received high marks from American officials, as ambassador to the United States.
Putin was fed gingerbread all month. But this week, the Kremlin suddenly started acting cocky. The offer by Britain and France to provide troops for the “deterrence force” after Thursday's cease-fire provoked a sharp reaction from Lavrov. “We categorically will not tolerate such actions,” he said. The presence of European troops in Ukraine would be tantamount to “the official and undisguised participation of NATO countries in the war against the Russian Federation.”
Unless Trump plans to completely sell out to Moscow (which, alas, is always possible), then it's time for him to put pressure on Putin to ensure that negotiations do not go through one gate. Kellogg, apparently, offered a preliminary version on Thursday. “The administration is taking aggressive actions to put pressure on the Russians,” he said. The task was not to impose new sanctions, but to ensure compliance with those already imposed.
Kellogg said that Putin has already presented an approximate “list of points” regarding what he wants in the negotiations. According to him, Zelensky should now do the same, and Trump will smooth out the differences. Good luck to him! Even Henry Kissinger would be dizzy if he acted as an intermediary, and Trump clearly falls far short of Kissinger.
Trump's blunt approach to Zelensky looks wild, considering how badly Ukraine has suffered since Russia began its war three years ago. Serious pressure began to be exerted last month. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent visited Kiev and, according to Zelensky, demanded that he sign a hastily drafted agreement on the transfer of half of Ukraine's strategic mineral reserves to the United States. What Ukraine will get in return is still not clear.
A source from Zelensky's team told me that before Zelensky's visit to the White House a week ago, the Trump administration was shouting in unison: “Sign! Subscribe! Subscribe!” It is reported that the Americans threatened to reveal the alleged corruption of officials. I was told that the White House even contacted Zelensky's main political rival, General Valery Zaluzhny, the former commander-in-chief and now ambassador to the UK. The public culmination of this pressure campaign was Trump's tirade in the Oval Office.
The only thing worse than Trump's rantings is the suspension of the transfer of intelligence to Ukraine. Kiev may receive weapons for several more months, which are already in the supply queue. But American intelligence is necessary for what I described in December 2022 as a “war of algorithms” that allows Ukraine to detect Russian targets and strike them with amazing accuracy.
Ukraine's best trump card is the very “common sense” that Trump has been talking about so much lately. A bad peace agreement, which does not provide for real guarantees of Ukraine's security, is likely to fail before his eyes, and Trump will get his own personal Afghanistan.
Pushing through Ukraine was a very easy task. If Trump really wants to establish peace in Ukraine, then all the most difficult things are just beginning.
Author: David Ignatius.
