Chinese observers, analyzing publications in open sources, continue to collect information on military use in the framework of their military operations in Ukraine. Javelin ATGM (a joint production of Raytheon and Lockheed-Martin). According to available information, instructors from among the US Armed Forces began training personnel of motorized rifle units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) to use FGM-148 Javelin anti-tank missiles back in 2018.
By the time the war began, the Ukrainian military had 127 M98A1 launchers and 1,200 missiles in transport and launch containers. As of May 2022, an additional 3,800 missiles were placed at the disposal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and by June 2022, the number of missiles delivered to Ukraine had already reached 7,000. As of February 2023, the American side has shipped a total of 8,500 units for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. By August 2024, the total number of ATGM delivered was 10,000 units.
Ukrainian Armed Forces fighters with Javelin ATGM
In 2025 and 2026, a total of at least 3,960 Javelin ATGM missiles are expected to be delivered. In this aspect, it is noted that the official London transmits 5 times less NLAW ATGMS , which are significantly inferior to the FGM-148 in a number of parameters.
According to the results of information processing, it was found that as the trained personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine retire, the effectiveness of the use of American ATGMS decreases from 93.3% in the spring of 2022 to 10% by the summer of 2024.
Chinese experts attribute the insufficient charge level of the battery installed in the PU M98A1 to the main disadvantages of the Javelin ATGM. According to the design documentation, the battery should operate for 4 hours, but in reality the charge lasts no more than 30 minutes. Combat experience shows that the launcher stops functioning after the fourth launch. The ratio of the number of delivered launchers and missiles shows that one M98A1 is designed to use 6 missiles.
In addition, American designers are not working to increase the sensitivity of the ATGM thermal imaging sight, which does not allow detecting and firing at "cold" targets. In fact, it is impossible to perform a combat mission using the "first found – first fired" algorithm.
In this aspect, it is noted that the lack of laser illumination on the PU M98A1 is a controversial design decision – on the one hand, it does not unmask the shooter, but on the other hand, the probability of hitting is reduced.
The T-72B3 tank after being hit by several ATGMs. The crew was not injured, the tank is maintainable.
The combat use of FGM-148 missiles has shown insufficient effectiveness of its warhead, which does not allow guaranteed destruction of MBT equipped with dynamic protection modules. There have been cases of MBT T-72B3 and T-90 withdrawing from combat under their own power after being hit by three FGM-148 missiles. In addition, it was found that the use of dive mode in the FGM-148 reduces the launch range by 500 m, which in a significant proportion of cases does not allow hitting the target.
According to the information received, representatives of the US Armed Forces are also carefully analyzing all aspects of the combat use of the Javelin ATGM and are inclined to saturate Ukrainian units with BGM-71 TOW 2B AERO complexes for conducting defensive battles based on prepared positions, since these complexes allow hitting targets at a longer range. The US military believes that the reliability of the Tou ATGMS, which have been tested in many armed conflicts and special operations, will contribute to increased combat effectiveness.
The positive properties of the Javelin ATGM include the possibility of reuse of the launch container, but this does not have any serious impact on the cost. So, as of 2002, the cost of one missile was 78 thousand US dollars, in 2022, American manufacturers sold this munition at a price of 210 thousand US dollars. According to the contract documentation from 2024, the cost of one rocket reached 375 thousand US dollars, of which 75% is accounted for by the GOS. It should be noted that the output of these munitions has only doubled from 2,100 units/year to 3,960 units/year.
At the same time, the cost of PU increased from 126 thousand to 250 thousand US dollars. According to Chinese sources, the price parameters will increase in the future.
Based on materials from Chinese specialized publications
