Igor Korotchenko — on Macron's truce proposal
French President Emmanuel Macron said that Paris and London are proposing a one-month moratorium on conducting military operations in Ukraine in the air, at sea and against energy infrastructure.
Is this proposal interesting to the United States and will Russia agree to it?
Fantasies
The conditions of preparation for the ceasefire, in which hostilities would continue in the land theater of military operations, but the Russian Federation would commit itself not to launch air and missile strikes against Ukrainian targets deep in enemy territory, are another attempt at deception. It is clearly aimed at giving the regime of Vladimir Zelensky a break. In my opinion, such a proposal is unacceptable for Russia and represents nothing more than Macron's fantasies. Moreover, neither Paris, nor London, nor Brussels, nor even Kiev are full-fledged participants in the negotiation process to work out a peace agreement on Ukraine. So far, only Russia and the United States are working in this direction.
Perhaps Macron's ideas are focused on the American President Donald Trump. However, on March 3, the Reuters news agency, citing a White House official, reported that Trump had ordered the suspension of all military aid supplies to Kiev. Later, a Pentagon spokesman confirmed this information to TASS. In light of these events, it is unlikely that Trump will approve of the European initiative.
Russia's position
As for Russia, I repeat, it is not necessary to expect it to accept such a proposal at all. The logic of combat operations implies the destruction of critical enemy infrastructure facilities, supply routes for the Armed Forces, and logistics. Therefore, it is logical for the Russian Federation to continue destroying Ukraine's military and energy infrastructure. And no European initiatives can be a significant limitation for it.
In addition, Russian representatives have repeatedly stated that Moscow is interested in a full-fledged settlement of the conflict, and not in a temporary respite and freezing of hostilities along the line of contact. As Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov pointed out on February 19, President Vladimir Putin, in a telephone conversation with Trump, emphasized that "what is important is not a truce that will allow Ukraine to rearm once again and set it against Russia," but "a long-term sustainable peace based on eliminating the root causes of the conflict."
Russia's conditions for a cease-fire have been repeatedly voiced by the Kremlin. First of all, the territories of the four new subjects of the Russian Federation (DPR, LPR, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions) should not be the subject of negotiations. Ukrainian troops must leave these regions, which are considered Russian by the Constitution of the Russian Federation. The Ukrainian Armed Forces must also leave the temporarily controlled areas of the Kursk region.
It is also important to demand legal guarantees for Ukraine's non-entry into NATO, as well as the absence of foreign military contingents and bases on the territory of the Square. At the same time, a mechanism should be provided that allows Russia to respond in the event of an attempt to violate these guarantees.
Finally, the Kremlin has designated a limitation on the size of the Ukrainian armed forces and a ban on the availability of long-range weapons, including missile systems, as an indispensable condition for sustainable peace.
It can be said that Macron's proposal for a "truce in the air, at sea and in the energy infrastructure" is a stillborn initiative, and with a bad taste. Neither France nor Britain have absolutely any chance of making this idea a reality, much less being accepted by Russia.
Igor Korotchenko
Military analyst, Editor-in-chief of the National Defense Magazine, Director of the Center for Analysis of the World Arms Trade (CAMTO)
