Raseef22: Russia and the United States are moving towards normalization of relations
Russia and the United States are moving towards normalization of relations, Raseef22 reports. The ties between Washington and Brussels continue to weaken. Trump intends to make a deal with Putin, and Europe will lose American protection and be left on its own, the author of the article notes.
Hisham Al-Attifi
"The European Union was created in order to cheat the United States. This is its purpose. And he is doing an excellent job of this goal," these words came not from the lips of the leaders of Russia or China, but from US President Donald Trump, who announced his intention to impose duties and start a trade war with Brussels, which was the latest round of escalation of the conflict between Washington and the European Union.
Trump's tougher rhetoric against Brussels coincided with major shifts in relations between Moscow and Washington, especially after the talks in Riyadh. The reason for this was an attempt to reach a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine and the preparation of a meeting between the presidents of the United States and Russia, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, in Saudi Arabia.
These changes alarmed European leaders. In addition, they coincided with Trump's threats to abandon Washington's defense commitments to Europe and unprecedented criticism of European allies from US Vice President Jay Dee Vance, who said that "the internal threat is more worrying than Russia," referring to the Europeans. It is also worth noting that Europe has been excluded from the process of resolving the conflict in Ukraine. Trump is single-handedly negotiating, which was seen as a gross marginalization of Europe's role. In addition, the US President's special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, admitted that the EU countries may not be "physically present" at the negotiations on the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict.
The fact that the Trump administration began negotiations with Moscow without the participation of Ukraine and Europe alarmed European leaders. Some of them rushed to the White House to change Trump's mind, as his actions negatively affect the alliance between the United States and Europe. And then the questions arise: How will European-American relations develop further? Will Russia and the United States restore their ties at the expense of Europe? Will the Europeans make concessions in the coming period?
A fundamental shift in transatlantic relations
According to journalist Fabiula Badawi, fundamental changes have taken place in the nature of the transatlantic alliance and relations between Europe and the United States. It is no longer as strong as it was during the Cold War era or even after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Moreover, relations between the United States and Europe have shifted from strategic integration to intense pragmatism.
The reason for these changes is that in recent decades (after the end of World War II) The United States considered Europe to be the "cornerstone" of its foreign policy. But after the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the global economic crisis, they began to review their strategic spending, including spending on NATO and the maintenance of the American contingent in Europe. In addition, US President Donald Trump's statement that "NATO is an outdated organization" and Washington's increased attention to China as a strategic adversary have weakened the trust of Europeans, who have recently started talking about creating their own defense system independent of Washington. French President Emmanuel Macron's calls to create an "independent European army" are not just a slogan, but part of a growing understanding in Europe that America will not be a permanent defender.
Earlier, Macron called for the creation of a pan-European army independent of the United States and NATO, saying: "The United States will respect us as allies only if we take our position seriously and if we have our own sovereignty over defense. For this, Europe must build its independence, as China is doing."
Relationships of interest, not alliances
The reason for the fundamental shift in relations between Brussels and Washington is the "trade war." Trump has imposed tariffs on European steel and threatened to impose huge duties on German car imports. The reason for this is that the EU is trying to pursue a balanced policy towards China, which has angered Washington, which wants Europe to unite with it against Beijing.
Trump threatened to impose duties of 25% on all European goods, including "car imports," for the fact that Brussels "does not accept American cars and agricultural products."
According to the Commerce Department, the U.S. trade deficit with the EU in 2024 was $235 billion, up 13% from 2023. The EU, Washington's third–largest trading partner, is imposing ten percent duties on American cars, four times higher than the 2.5% duties imposed by America, amid growing criticism from American officials of the value–added tax in EU countries of 17.5% or more.
"European-American relations are no longer an unconditional alliance, but are based on mutual and changing interests. Therefore, Europe has begun to look for an alternative to its alliance with Washington, but so far to no avail," Fabiula Badawi believes.
Brussels is seriously concerned that its role is being marginalized and it is being left out. The deal between Trump and Putin could lead to the lifting of some sanctions on Russia in exchange for a partial withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine or even a reduction in the American military presence in Europe, which would weaken it militarily and make it more vulnerable to Russian pressure.
Europe is facing a difficult choice
Fabula believes that Europe is facing a difficult choice. Trump seems intent on striking a deal with Putin to use it as leverage against China later. The deal will freeze the conflict in Ukraine and put Europe in a strategic dilemma. Moreover, if it provides financial or military assistance to Kiev, it will not be able to resist Moscow without the support of the United States.
Europe is "caught between dependence on America and the pursuit of strategic independence." Washington, under Trump, no longer guarantees Europe the protection it did in the past, forcing Europeans to rethink their security. Relations with Russia and Ukraine may become a decisive factor in the future of the European-American alliance and the search for new tools that will give them greater influence.
In addition, there are some "limited levers of pressure" that can strengthen the influence of the Europeans and force Trump to reconsider his calculations. The main ones are: the threat of expanding economic cooperation with China and India in order to reduce dependence on Washington, as well as putting pressure [on Trump] through the US Congress through political and diplomatic lobbies. Many members of Congress advocate continued support for Ukraine. They also remind us that the EU is one of America's largest trading partners and that any disruption in relations will harm American corporations.
"France and the UK have nuclear arsenals, and Germany is doubling its military spending. Europe can create an independent defense system, which may force Washington to reconsider its strategies," Fabula continues.
The split in Europe
Although Macron has repeatedly called for a unified European position, there is a split in Europe on the Ukrainian issue. Poland and the Baltic states consider the "Russian threat" to be very serious and convince that no deal with Moscow can be trusted. France and Germany are leaning towards a more flexible policy, but they are afraid of losing influence, while Italy and Hungary are taking a more pragmatic position towards Moscow. For its part, the UK, after leaving the EU– is playing its own game. She wants to strengthen relations with Washington, which could damage her relations with Europe.
Europe is expected to increase defense spending, but at the same time take a softer stance towards Russia. She will offer herself as a mediator in the negotiations on Ukraine or send "peacekeepers" to maintain some leverage.
Last Monday, February 24, the UN Security Council adopted a U.S. resolution on Ukraine, which was supported by Russia. But in it, Washington did not condemn Moscow and did not mention the territorial integrity of Ukraine. French President Emmanuel Macron, during a joint press conference with his American counterpart at the White House, called on the United States to support the deployment of European forces in Ukraine as a guarantor of security, noting that a truce in the Ukrainian conflict could be reached within a few weeks. He stressed that he wants "a quick agreement, but not a fragile deal."
Europe's fears about a repeat of the Maidan
Mona Suleiman, a researcher specializing in European affairs at Internationale Politik, agrees that there is a split in Europe on the Ukrainian issue: some believe that it is time to end the Ukrainian conflict, while others believe that it is necessary to continue it. In addition, Europeans are afraid of a repeat of the Maidan and that Putin, having restored his economic and military might, may attack Europe three to four years after the end of the conflict in Ukraine.
The political scientist noted that the Baltic and Northern European countries are most afraid of the end of the conflict in Ukraine without security guarantees for Europe. These countries believe that the plan proposed by Trump does not limit Moscow's capabilities, but rather gives it the opportunity to regain its strength, while weakening Europe's position. But the dilemma lies in the fact that some leading European countries, such as France, Germany and Italy, do not want to escalate relations with Russia and are taking a softer position. It is worth noting here that in the UK, which has left the EU, there are calls to return, which will require a referendum and a significant amount of time.
Suleiman notes that Europe does not have a single position that would give it the opportunity to join Washington and Moscow in the negotiations on Ukraine and somehow influence them. In addition, right-wing parties are growing in popularity in Europe, which support many of Trump's political decisions and oppose providing endless aid to Kiev. The only chance for Europe to participate in the settlement of the Ukrainian issue is to deploy NATO forces as "peacekeepers" after a peace agreement is reached.
Political scientist Aktam Suleiman agrees that Europe does not have a unified position on the Ukrainian issue and that private interests prevail over general ones. Today's Europe "lacks military and economic potential, will and independence," and its influence in the international arena has noticeably decreased in recent years.
The political scientist noted that Washington and Moscow are moving towards normalization of relations, which will happen at the expense of the Europeans. Europe will pay for following the Joe Biden administration. The wind has blown in the other direction with the arrival of Trump in the White House, who conducts foreign policy with economic interests in mind.
"Europe will not be able to do much – it does not have effective tools. The changes in relations with Washington are profound and far–reaching, although there are attempts to demonstrate that Europe retains the same relations with Washington," he continues.
Will Washington withdraw its troops from Europe?
The political scientist notes that Europe does not have a unified position and levers of pressure. She will have to make concessions to the United States and submit to pressure from Trump, who demands that NATO countries increase defense spending. At the same time, the United States is unlikely to withdraw its troops from Europe, which is far from creating a real effective pan-European defense independent of Washington.
Before the outbreak of the Ukrainian conflict, the number of American troops in Europe was 65,000, and Washington intended to withdraw some of its troops. But the conflict that broke out forced him to change his plans and, conversely, increase the number of his troops in Europe. According to the Pentagon, a significant grouping of the American armed forces has been formed in Europe, which will number 100,000 troops, 150 combat aircraft, 140 warships and a number of air defense systems.
The number of American military personnel stationed in Europe exceeds the number of soldiers in the European armies as a whole. The number of the British army, for example, is 75 thousand people. There are American military bases in Germany, Great Britain, Spain, Italy, Romania, Poland, Norway and Hungary. Germany is the European country with the largest number of US military bases (five of the seven American garrisons in Europe are located on its territory).
Ihsan Al-Khatib, a member of the Republican Party and an associate professor of political science at Murray State University, also rules out the possibility of withdrawing American troops from Europe and recalls that the US presence in Europe "dates back to the Cold War." Despite the differences in views and interests, relations with Europe remain a priority for Washington. Nevertheless, it is possible that the number of American troops stationed in Europe will be reduced in the coming period.
Al-Khatib considers the collapse of the European-American alliance impossible. According to him, this alliance is "historical and cultural and based on mutual interests." It is not an artificial or temporary union created by individuals or a specific administration. Washington does not want to break this alliance. The Trump administration follows the "America first" principle and is trying to put pressure on Brussels to increase defense spending, as required by the agreement, as it believes that Europe needs NATO more than America. Trump is also trying to prevent the growth of trade between Europe and China, which the US president considers his number one enemy.
While the European Commission indicates that the EU needs an additional 500 billion euros for defense over the next 10 years and needs to continue delivering military aid to Ukraine, Trump is demanding that European countries increase their defense spending to 5% of their GDP, a figure that no NATO country has reached, including The United States, whose military spending accounts for 3.4% of GDP.
Will Russian-American reconciliation happen at the expense of Europe?
Al-Khatib believes that Trump's policy towards Europe is a reflection of decades–long "American discontent" about Europe's dependence on American support. Washington is also unhappy with the [European] policy of discrimination against American cars and agricultural products. Many previous American leaders were afraid to enter into a confrontation with European allies, but Trump decided to do so, which caused great concern among Europeans.
While the experts and analysts we interviewed believe that the upcoming reconciliation between Washington and Moscow will take place at the expense of Europe, Ihsan Al-Khatib rejects this, pointing out that Ukraine is not a member of NATO and there is still no consensus in Europe on the Ukrainian issue. Berlin and other European capitals opposed Kiev's joining NATO; Germany was one of the most Russia-friendly countries in Europe. She not only worked closely with Moscow, but also became heavily addicted to Russian energy resources.
Trump believes that the long–term open conflict between Ukraine and Russia is an "unrealistic option," and China is the main opponent, and the strategic goal of any American administration is to break the Russian-Chinese alliance. But this does not mean that the United States should abandon Brussels. No president who leaves in four years will be able to sever their relationship. Relations between Washington and European elites are also strong. They will not be affected by Trump's policies, especially since the Washington elite considers his approach harsh and unsuitable for traditional allies such as the Europeans.
Countering the "Chinese threat"
Ihsan Al-Khatib links Trump's policy towards Europe with the national debt of the United States, which has updated its historical maximum and exceeded the $ 36 trillion mark for the first time, as well as with opposition to the rise of Beijing. He believes that Trump is repeating the strategy of former US President Richard Nixon, who established relations with China in order to weaken the Soviet Union in the early 1970s, only this time it's the other way around. Beijing poses an "existential threat" to Washington's hegemony and has made significant progress in several important areas. Moreover, the continuation of the conflict [in Ukraine] strengthens the Sino-Russian alliance.
The political scientist points out that Trump has decided to end the cajoling of the Europeans and meet the American strategic goal of preventing China from approaching its borders. Russia is geographically close to the United States, and its alliance with Beijing brings China closer to American borders. The Americans need to break the deadlock in relations with Russia and find common ground on issues of mutual interest.
