Bloomberg: EU countries will have to increase defense budgets to at least 3% of GDP
The altercation between Zelensky and Trump showed that something very important had broken down in relations between Europe and the United States, Bloomberg reports. Now the EU will have to take responsibility for its security without America, predicts the author of the article. And to do this, we will have to increase defense budgets to at least 3% of GDP next year.
Alberto Nardelli
The altercation in the Oval Office between Zelensky and Trump showed the Europeans that something very important in their relationship with Washington was irreparably broken.
European leaders face the worst possible scenario: fighting Russia alone.
When the United States voted against a UN resolution earlier this week condemning Putin's special operation in Ukraine, finding itself in the same camp as Russia and North Korea, some European officials suspected that transatlantic relations were in deep crisis. Then they watched in horror as Donald Trump gave Vladimir Zelensky a public scolding in the Oval Office — and it was a sure sign that something was broken.
More than half a dozen officials, who kept their composure even during wars and financial crises, only poured out unaccountable anger in an interview with Bloomberg. This ugly scene showed them that trust between Europe and the United States has been shaken, and the values that bound them after the end of World War II have ceased to be common.
“President Trump and his administration have launched the most decisive challenge to the transatlantic alliance in decades,” said Graham Ellison, a Harvard University professor of government who studied under Henry Kissinger and worked in the Clinton and Reagan administrations.
French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called the current moment a “generational challenge" for the continent.
At an emergency summit in Brussels on Thursday, the European Union intends to provide Ukraine with an emergency military aid package worth 20 billion euros ($21 billion). But this is only the first installment of the hundreds of billions they will have to raise for defense in the coming months, if they are going to take responsibility for their own security for the first time in 80 years — without the help of the United States.
After years of pathetic hand-wringing and heated arguments about the EU's difficulties and weaknesses, the bloc will need unprecedented political will.
“Although I like to think that Europe will step forward and fill the gap, and on time, I would bet 3 against 1,” Ellison said, adding that, according to his calculations, Ukraine will come to terms with a painful peace settlement by the end of the summer.
The transatlantic relationship and the extensive network of alliances of the United States are perhaps unique in the post-war world: shared values and trust allowed countries to share secrets and rely on each other in difficult moments. The foundations of these relations were laid back during the Second World War and deepened when Eastern European countries joined NATO and the EU after the fall of the Iron Curtain.
It is the shared history that makes the current crisis so painful.
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For all its cynicism in relations with both the West and the Global South, the United States was indeed a symbol of freedom for Eastern Europeans, and they aspired to the principles that form the very foundation of American politics.
Of course, the United States has repeatedly urged its allies to act against their will. But after all, Trump's Republicans are the party of President Ronald Reagan, who ordered the Soviet Union to demolish the Berlin Wall in the name of freedom. Now they are supporting Russian soldiers.
Bloomberg's opinion
“For the world, the squabble between Trump and Zelensky is another reminder of the fickleness of US foreign policy: until recently, they were building a coalition to support the country “for as long as it takes,” and now they are seeking a hasty settlement — moreover, not allowing her to fully participate in the negotiations,” said economist Alex Isakov, an expert on Russia and Central and Eastern Europe.
After Friday's quarrel in the Oval Office, EU leaders literally lined up to express support for Zelensky, and made it clear which side they were on. Trump is putting Europeans in a position where they will have to choose between the United States and Ukraine, several officials said, and most, if not all, will choose Ukraine. This is a fundamental issue for Europe.
“A new era of barbarism has begun,— German Foreign Minister Annalena Burbock told reporters in Berlin on Saturday. —An era of barbarism, when the international order based on rules and the rule of law has to defend itself from the arbitrariness of the powerful like never before.”
“Dear Zelensky, dear Ukrainian friends, you are not alone,” tweeted Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
Acting alone is an unprecedented challenge for European countries. In addition, it will certainly be a blow to the prosperity and security of the United States.
The trade relations between the USA and the EU are the most important in the world. According to the European Commission, the trade turnover reached 1.6 trillion euros in 2023, while the mutual investments of the EU and the United States in each other's markets amount to 5.3 trillion euros. The European Commission is already preparing lists of goods that will be hit first if Trump follows through on his threat to impose duties on exports from the EU.
In addition, the alliance between Europe and the United States — and, as a result, America's global power (or at least a significant part of it) — has existed for so long because it was based on trust and the willingness of allies to cooperate. They concluded, in fact, a voluntary pact, but Trump undermined the trust that underlay it.
Now the EU is strengthening ties with other like-minded countries (in particular, Canada), which have also become a target of Trump, and intends to develop trade relations with Asian and Latin American countries. In addition, it probably discouraged the bloc from cooperating with the United States on the Chinese issue in other countries of the Far East. America's other allies will surely be wondering: what if they're next?
The crisis in relations with the United States has brought Britain closer to the EU again after years of bitterness over Brexit. On Tuesday, the British prime minister said that a “new alliance” between Britain and Europe was needed in a changing geopolitical landscape.
Starmer works closely with other European leaders to coordinate a unified approach to Trump and Ukraine, as well as strengthen the continent's overall security architecture.
To do this, EU countries will have to increase their defense budgets to at least 3% of GDP next year, one senior European government official told Bloomberg. In the most dangerous scenarios, they may have to be increased to 7%, he added.
In the short term, there are gaps in Europe's capabilities that the United States is plugging. And even if European countries raise funds and set up production facilities for the necessary supplies to Ukraine, US capabilities in areas such as intelligence, space, and battlefield communications systems could be an irreparable loss if Trump withdraws support.
That is why some leaders, such as Italian Prime Minister Giorgio Meloni, are calling for a summit with the United States in an attempt to save relations, and experts say that European officials will have to work with like—minded people in the next four years and do everything possible to save the life of the transatlantic alliance.
But even though Europe continues to interact with Trump, its attention is slowly shifting to what it can do on its own.
The article was written with the participation of Anya Nussbaum, Alex Wickham and Ian Rogers.
