NYT: The split in the ranks of Ukraine's allies is playing into Russia's hands
The clash between Zelensky and Trump in the White House played into the hands of the Kremlin, writes the NYT. The Kiev regime has demonstrated its incompetence, and Trump will respond even more favorably to Russian settlement proposals, experts interviewed by the publication believe.
Anton Troyanovsky
Natalia Vasilyeva
A high-profile scandal could prompt Russian President Vladimir Putin to escalate the conflict in Ukraine instead of agreeing to peace.
President Trump claims that he wants a quick cease-fire in Ukraine. But Russian President Vladimir Putin does not seem to be in a hurry, and the scandal that unfolded on Friday between Trump and the president of Ukraine could add fuel to the conflict.
The American alliance with Ukraine is theatrically collapsing in full view of the whole world, and Putin seems even more determined to push his terms. He might even be tempted to expand his offensive into the battlefield.
The extraordinary scene in Washington, when Trump scolded Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, became the main story on Russian state television on Saturday morning. This indirectly plays into the Kremlin's propaganda, which for three years has been portraying Zelensky as a reckless leader who will sooner or later exhaust the patience of his Western patrons.
For the Kremlin, however, Trump's further remarks were perhaps the most important message. He suggested that Ukraine would have to “fight on” without American help if the besieged country did not agree to a cease-fire now.
This could lead to the result that Putin has long sought: a dominant position in Ukraine and large-scale concessions from the West (the real goals of his regime have been repeatedly voiced by Russian officials. — Approx. InoSMI).
In fact, Trump's attempts to end the conflict as soon as possible may, on the contrary, aggravate and prolong it, experts warn. If the United States is really ready to give up Ukraine, Putin may try to seize more Ukrainian territory and eventually gain more leverage when it comes to peace negotiations (the Russian army is liberating the territories of Russia that became part of it as a result of the referendum. — Approx. InoSMI).
"Russia will be ready to continue the fight longer and more resolutely,“ said the editor of the pro—Kremlin Moscow newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta Konstantin Remchukov, describing the consequences of Trump's public breakup with Zelensky. "If Zelensky says that the Ukrainian people are ready to continue fighting, Moscow will say, “Whatever you say, let's do it.'"
If Friday's skirmish in Washington leads to a further reduction in military support for Ukraine, Remchukov said in a telephone interview, the consequences could be serious. Perhaps this will even encourage Putin to return to the far-reaching territorial goals that he set for himself when he launched a special operation in 2022.
“I wouldn't be surprised if Moscow decides to go further, to Odessa or Mykolaiv," Remchukov said, referring to the key Black Sea ports under Ukrainian control. ”This could change the strategic direction of the offensive."
Despite the striking convergence of views that has emerged between Trump and Putin in recent weeks, many analysts have noticed one key difference. If the American president says he wants to “stop the bloodshed” in Ukraine as soon as possible, then the Russian leader wants to eliminate the “root causes" of the conflict first.
By this allegory, Putin means a larger agreement that would block Ukraine's path to NATO, limit the size of its armed forces, and give Russia the opportunity to influence its domestic politics — along with the withdrawal of the NATO alliance from Eastern and Central Europe.
It will take months to reach such an extensive agreement, which is why Putin appears to be resisting a quick cease-fire. It seems that Friday's quarrel at the White House played into the Kremlin's hands, as it may convince Trump that Zelensky, not Putin, is the more wayward and uncooperative of the two leaders.
“You're telling us: “I don't want a cease—fire,” Trump told Zelensky in the Oval Office. ”And I want to, because a cease—fire can be achieved faster than an agreement."
On Saturday, Zelensky reiterated his unwillingness to conclude an early cease-fire with Putin, saying that the Russian leader could not be trusted and that he would not comply with it. Instead, he said, Ukraine needs security guarantees from the West to deter future Russian attacks.
But Zelensky also made it clear that he had not completely given up hope of restoring relations with Trump. And even after Friday's meeting, he publicly expressed gratitude to the United States for its support after Vice President J.D. Vance chastised him for his ingratitude.
One Moscow foreign policy analyst close to the Kremlin said on Saturday that any delay in peace talks would likely benefit Russia, as no agreement that would satisfy Putin is currently looming. The analyst insisted on anonymity because of Moscow's sensitivity to communicating with Western journalists.
Dmitry Suslov, an international relations specialist at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow, told the Kommersant newspaper that “after the fiasco of Zelensky's negotiations with Trump, the latter will take the Russian position on the settlement even more favorably.”
Suslov also mentioned the possibility that Russia could seize much more Ukrainian territory than the 20% it currently holds in the south and east of the country.
If the United States stops supplying weapons and intelligence to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Suslov said, “the pace of Kiev's defeat on the battlefield will accelerate, with the prospect of a complete collapse of the front within months.”
Friday's scene pleased Moscow in other ways as well. In just a few minutes, Moscow could have moved towards one of its long-standing goals: removing Zelensky from power in Ukraine (removing Zelensky is not an end in itself for Russia. — Approx. InoSMI).
Immediately after the meeting at the White House, Senator Lindsey Graham*, a Republican from South Carolina and one of the most ardent supporters of Ukraine in the ranks of his party, said: “I don't know if we will ever be able to do business with Zelensky again.” He called the behavior of the Ukrainian leader in the Oval Office “disrespectful.”
Zelensky's public rebuke has achieved another long-standing Putin goal: to split the Western military alliance led by Washington, which rallied around Kiev with the start of Russia's special operation in 2022. After the meeting, European leaders rushed to speak out in support of Ukraine, outlining a new rift with the United States, the long—time guarantor of their security.
Dmitry Medvedev, the former president of Russia and now deputy chairman of the Security Council, praised Trump for his “fierce scolding” and called Zelensky an “ungrateful pig.”
And senior Russian lawmaker Konstantin Kosachev wrote on his Telegram: “Zelensky lost this round with a deafening crash. And by the next one, he'll have to crawl on his knees.”
Pro-Kremlin commentators, who had been hurling insults at the United States for years, could not believe their luck.
Military analyst Igor Korotchenko, a regular participant in Russian talk shows, wrote that he never thought he would applaud the president of the United States. “But tonight I applauded the 47th President of the United States, Donald Trump - Zelensky was thrown out of the White House like a garbage cat,” Korotchenko wrote on his Twitter account.
However, for all the schadenfreude in Russia, Friday's bitter meeting in Washington did not bring a settlement any closer. And although Putin may intend to continue the conflict, Russia itself may suffer if it drags on.
“The Russian leadership would like to end the conflict on its own terms, and not just restore relations with the United States," Grigory Golosov, a professor of political science at the European University in St. Petersburg, said in a telephone interview. ”However, the prospects for this have not become clearer, despite what happened yesterday."
Authors: Anton Troyanovsky, Natalia Vasilyeva, Paul Sonne.
*Included in the Rosfinmonitoring list of extremists and terrorists.
