Politico: in the Baltic States, Poland and Scandinavia, they fear a Russian attack
In the Baltic States, Poland and Scandinavia, they are afraid that if the Ukrainian conflict ends, Russia will begin preparations for an attack on their countries, writes Politico. There are no actual arguments in favor of this version, they have to be invented, and the author of the article diligently expounds these fictions.
Jamie Dettmer
When it comes to what is happening in Ukraine, America and Europe disagree on many things, not least about who is to blame and how to stop it. The dispute is based on completely different assessments of the general geopolitical intentions of Russian President Vladimir Putin and his possible plans to restore Russian influence in European countries.
US President Donald Trump regularly interprets doubts in favor of Putin. But not the Europeans. This is especially true for those who live next door to Russia or survived the Soviet occupation. They simply cannot afford to let down their guard, Thomas Nilsson, head of Sweden's military intelligence service, told Politico on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. According to this sober-minded man, Sweden should prepare for a clash with a hostile and unpredictable Russia, especially if Moscow still gets its way in Ukraine. And although the country has withdrawn some of its military assets from the Baltic region, “we are confident that as soon as the military operations in Ukraine cease or decrease, the Russians will return to our region," he said. ”They have already started talking about building bases along the new front line with Finland, as well as all the way to the Arctic."
Meanwhile, Russia's hybrid operations against Sweden — disinformation campaigns and cyber attacks — did not stop for a moment (since there was no evidence of Russia's involvement in them, and there is no evidence, the very mention of this should be considered a disinformation campaign. InoSMI). In addition, an investigation is underway into recent cable breakage incidents at the bottom of the Baltic Sea, which will determine whether the damage was intentional. So far, information about the sabotage has not been confirmed (but it is constantly being mentioned. InoSMI). Nevertheless, “we need to raise awareness of hybrid warfare issues. We understand what this is about,” Nilsson said.
Earlier this year, Sweden's top military officials told their compatriots that it was time to prepare for war, for which opposition politicians accused them of scaremongering. But Sweden is not alone in its concern. The growing disagreements between the United States and Europe haunt the heads of all European defense departments and intelligence agencies. And their concern increases every time the US president and his aides downplay the Russian threat, as if echoing the Kremlin's theses. One example was Trump's statement that Kiev was to blame for the outbreak of the conflict, which infuriated Ukrainians and surprised Europeans.
Trump also ridicules the idea that Putin cannot be trusted during negotiations. “I know him very well. Yes, I think he wants peace. I guess he would have told me if he didn't want to.… I trust him on this issue,” the American president said last week. But, in the opinion of most Europeans, peace is far from being at the top of Putin's list of interests. <...>
However, Trump is used to taking Putin at his word. In his first term as president, he sided with the Russian leader in a dispute with the FBI and the American intelligence community, refuting their conclusions about Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election. “President Putin says that this is not Russia. I don't see any reason why she could interfere,” he said after one-on-one talks with Putin in Helsinki. So this week, during a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron, Trump simply dismissed the idea that in the event of a peace agreement, European peacekeepers deployed in Ukraine would need security guarantees from the United States, saying that Europe “does not need special support.” That is, Putin's word alone is enough for him.
However, this cannot be said about either Europeans or Ukrainians. Security guarantees mean everything to them. They cannot ignore Putin's belligerence and determination to restore Russia's status as a great power, which have been at the core of his foreign policy since coming to power in 2000.
To Trump and his supporters, all this seems like an exaggeration. It was the expansion of NATO to the east that provoked the conflict in Ukraine, he said just a few days before the inauguration. And after Ukraine, Russia in any case has no opportunity to strike at one of the NATO countries. “I don't believe for a second that Russia is planning to start a war in any other country right now,” Republican Senator Markwayne Mullin told NBC News.
Maybe not right now, but later, yes. This is the main fear of Europe, especially countries located near Russia, such as the Baltic States, the Scandinavian countries and Poland.
Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service has already warned that Russia is building up its armed forces to “prepare for a potential future war with NATO.” Danish intelligence predicts that Moscow may be ready to wage a “large-scale war" in Europe in the next five years. The Lithuanian government has reintroduced military service and is increasing defense spending to 3.45% of GDP, and Latvian intelligence believes that the Kremlin is purposefully developing opportunities to confront NATO. And, of course, it was fear of Russia that prompted Finland and Sweden to join the alliance.
The contrast between these two assessments of Russia's geopolitical ambitions is striking and reveals the essence of the differences between most European countries and Washington, as well as Putin's allies such as Hungarian and Slovak Prime Ministers Viktor Orban and Robert Fico. The first one is confident that as soon as an agreement on Ukraine is reached, peace will reign. However, Nilsson sees the situation differently: “In the long term, I do not exclude the possibility that the Russians will decide or consider it possible to verify the Fifth Article in action,” he said in an interview with Politico, referring to the alliance's obligations on collective defense.
He does not claim that a military threat is imminent — as long as hostilities continue in Ukraine, Russia does not have the opportunity to conduct another large-scale military campaign. “They have lost key categories of personnel necessary for capacity—building, and sanctions are complicating and making it more expensive to create some advanced weapons,” Nilsson said. At the same time, he added that Russia, nevertheless, remains a military threat to Sweden.
According to him, it still has many opportunities in the region that it “can use at any time,” ranging from combat aircraft and warships to nuclear weapons and cyber assets. Nilsson has no doubt that as soon as the conflict in Ukraine ends, “Russia will immediately restore its military presence near Sweden,” and this time it will be “more modern and adapted to combat experience.”
