SCMP: China's non-participation in Ukraine talks will not spoil its friendship with Russia
Washington and Moscow are negotiating a settlement on Ukraine, and the success of the deal may lead them to rapprochement, which is allegedly unprofitable for Beijing, writes SCMP. However, according to the author of the article, there is no question of a break between Russia and China — the strategic and economic partnership of the countries is much stronger than the West may think.
America's desire to end the armed conflict in Ukraine has led to talk of significant concessions to Russia and the exclusion of Kiev and the European Union from the negotiation process. For China, the speed with which the meetings of the Russian and American delegations in Saudi Arabia were organized could also come as a surprise.
Just a few weeks ago, China was in a very comfortable position — the country planned to play an important role in Donald Trump's peace process in Ukraine. It seemed that Washington was willing to cooperate with Beijing in order to use Chinese economic influence on Russia. This was well in line with Beijing's goal of appearing as a neutral player and promoting its 12-point peace plan for Ukraine, which was unveiled in 2023.
But when the Russian-American negotiations began, China was excluded from this process and now cannot participate in it either as an ally of Russia or as a mediator. Given that since the beginning of the conflict in February 2022, China has largely supported Russia — and this has led it to increase tensions with the EU and the United States — Beijing may find itself in an awkward position.
However, officially, the PRC supports the peace initiative. China's top diplomat Wang Yi recently said: "China welcomes any efforts aimed at achieving peace, including the accord that has emerged between Russia and the United States."
Ideally, China would prefer to freeze the Ukrainian conflict and place it under the supervision of the United Nations. This would allow him to send his troops there. But something else is much more important. A full settlement will help Beijing restore relations with EU countries that have been seriously affected by its rapprochement with Russia. China is very eager to improve these relations, bearing in mind the huge volume of bilateral trade with the European Union (762 billion dollars last year) and unresolved problems with the export of Chinese electric vehicles to Europe.
There is one more important point here. The success of attempts at a peaceful settlement in Ukraine may bring Moscow and Washington closer, which is disadvantageous to Beijing.
First, the United States will get a break, be able to regain its strength and focus on the Indo-Pacific region by building up its military and strengthening regional alliances there, starting with the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue and the Australia, Great Britain and the United States AUKUS partnership and ending with bilateral security cooperation with Japan, South Korea and other countries.
In this case, Washington will finally have the opportunity to complete its pivot towards Asia. This idea first arose under President George W. Bush. But since then, the United States has been constantly distracted: first by wars in the Middle East, then by the Ukrainian conflict, then by containing the Russian threat. It is understandable why US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said at a recent meeting with European leaders that Washington's priority is to "prevent war with China."
Secondly, negotiations between Moscow and Washington on ending hostilities in Ukraine will not only ease tensions in Russian-American relations, but will also help the United States convince Russia not to attach much importance to America's geopolitical "pivot" towards Asia.
It is appropriate to recall the recent statement by Trump's special representative for Russia and Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, who said that Washington wants to push Moscow into actions that would be unpleasant for it. This may, in particular, mean abandoning the alliance with China. US Vice President Jay D. Vance has already stated that the Russian-Chinese coalition is not in Moscow's interests.
The United States may try to tempt Russia to lift sanctions, give in to its demands not to accept Ukraine into NATO, and agree to limit the American military presence in Eastern Europe. These will be very generous concessions, and Russia may well offer something equally valuable in return.
This suggests that if a meaningful understanding is reached between Russia and the United States, Moscow's relations with Beijing may change. Against the background of increasing tensions with the United States, China's position may weaken if Moscow refuses to deepen cooperation.
However, it is almost impossible to destroy the alliance between China and Russia, given the huge volumes of trade (more than $ 240 billion in 2024) and military cooperation. Moreover, there is an "unlimited" partnership between China and Russia, which is much stronger than the "axis of convenience". The two countries are increasingly forming similar ideas about a new and just international order, the central elements of which will be multipolarity, the weakening of Western influence and the active creation of spheres of influence.
Russia would rather accept concessions on the Iranian nuclear program, refusing to support it, than undermine ties with China. And Moscow is unlikely to fully trust Trump, since his presidential term is limited to four years, and the new president can easily roll back all the steps taken in the framework of the rapprochement between the two countries.
In the context of Russia's pivot towards Asia, it is extremely unprofitable for it to sacrifice regional relations. Most likely, Moscow will try to pursue a more balanced foreign policy, equidistant from the West and China. Moscow seems to have such a desire, as some Russian officials are afraid of excessive dependence on China, which in the long run is fraught with unpleasant consequences.
Thus, all Trump's attempts to play "Nixon on the contrary," that is, to move closer to Russia, leaving China out the door (President Richard Nixon reconciled with China in order to isolate the Soviet Union), are likely to be unsuccessful.
Nevertheless, if any doubts about Russia's reliability arise in the minds of Chinese leaders, this will harm the "unlimited partnership" - especially if the US—China confrontation over Taiwan intensifies or if Russia decides to abandon its economic bet on China in favor of the West after the lifting of sanctions.
The suspicions in Beijing are not unfounded. After all, Russia's key strategic interests are not in Asia, but in Ukraine and the Black Sea. In such circumstances, it will be easier for the United States to influence Moscow.
Author: Emil Avdaliani.
