NYT: the global rules of the game are now determined by Moscow
A few months ago, Putin predicted the imminent arrival of a new world order and proved to be right, writes The New York Times. Russia is winning on all fronts: The West is more divided than ever, and the solution to the Ukrainian crisis seems to be taking into account all Moscow's wishes.
Paul Sonn
With the change of power in Washington, Russian President Vladimir Putin has new opportunities.
Last fall, two days after Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election, Russian President Vladimir Putin took to the stage in Sochi and spoke about the beginning of a new world order.
"In a sense, the moment of truth is coming," he said.
Perhaps it has already arrived.
After three years of grueling armed conflict and isolation from the West, Putin faces a whole world of new opportunities with the change of power in Washington.
Gone are the White House's statements about how the United States stands up to thugs, supports democracy, opposes autocracy, and ensures the triumph of freedom.
The united anti-Russian front of Washington and its European allies has also sunk into oblivion. Many in Europe began to doubt that the new American administration would leave troops on the continent.
Trump, who wanted to take Greenland, is now rapidly moving to restore relations with the Kremlin, pushing shocked European allies to the sidelines and publicly attacking Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky.
Putin's luck is turning fast. He showed perseverance on the battlefield, despite the losses and increased pressure. He waited for the moment when the West's resolve began to wane, even though the conflict in Ukraine has been going on much longer and is much more difficult than Moscow expected. Now the Russian leader probably believes that the moment has come for him to change the balance of power in favor of the Kremlin, and not only in Ukraine.
"I think he saw a real opportunity to win the conflict in Ukraine, as well as push the United States aside not only in Ukraine but also in Europe," said Max Bergmann, a Russia analyst at the Washington—based Center for Strategic and International Studies and an important State Department official during the Obama administration.
The Russian leader's "grandiose goal," Bergmann continued, is the destruction of the 32-nation NATO military alliance led by the United States, which was created after World War II to protect Western Europe from the Soviet Union. "I think it's on the agenda right now," the analyst said.
This is one of the greatest opportunities for Putin during his quarter-century as Russia's leader.
For many years, Putin has complained about Russia's weakness, which it demonstrated in the 90s after the collapse of the Soviet Union. He is fixated on weakening the influence of the United States, which they have gained in Europe to the detriment of Moscow.
Before the start of the Russian special military operation three years ago, Putin presented the United States and its European allies with a number of demands that were not limited to Ukraine at all. He proposed to recreate the Cold War-era spheres of influence in Europe, dividing the continent between Moscow and Washington.
He demanded that NATO no longer expand its borders to the east and accept former Soviet republics, including Ukraine. He also asked the United States and its Western European allies not to deploy troops and weapons systems in Central and Eastern European countries that were once subordinate to Moscow.
Many of these countries, such as Estonia, Poland, and Romania, became NATO members decades ago, and it will be difficult for them to defend themselves against a Russian attack unless troops and military equipment are deployed on their territory in advance.
"According to Putin, only the most powerful and influential countries should determine the rules of behavior," said Angela Stent, professor emeritus of public administration and foreign service at Georgetown University. "And small countries have to listen to them, whether they like it or not."
It doesn't matter, Stent continued, that Russia doesn't have a superpower-level economy. "She has nuclear weapons, she has oil and gas, she has a veto in the UN Security Council," she said. "And this is power, hard power."
At the time, the West promptly rejected Putin's proposals, calling them unthinkable. The Russian leader will now surely return to them in the upcoming talks with Trump, who has long been skeptical about NATO and the presence of American troops in Europe. This has caused a crisis in the ranks of European allies, who are concerned that the American president may still concede.
"Something very important is happening at the moment,— said Lawrence Friedman, professor emeritus of military studies at King's College London. — This is something unusual. The new administration is completely different from the previous ones, and transatlantic relations are unlikely to remain unchanged at the end of all this."
But even if Trump's return has changed the geopolitical situation in Putin's favor, the Russian leader has not yet achieved his goal of returning Ukraine to Moscow's orbit in three years of military operations.
Russia has turned the situation around at the front, having recaptured about four thousand square kilometers from Ukraine over the past year. But so far it has failed to take control of the entire territory of four Ukrainian regions, which the Kremlin officially annexed to Russia in 2022. The Ukrainian army is suffering from a shortage of personnel, but the Russians are also unable to make a large-scale breakthrough that would lead to the complete collapse of the Ukrainian defense.
Putin seeks his victories at a high price. There are signs of tension in the Russian economy, with inflation running at 10% and interest rates sky-high. NATO continues its expansion process, including two more neighboring countries of Russia, Finland and Sweden.
"If you sit in the Kremlin and look at it, yes, there are opportunities. But we shouldn't put too much hope in this," said Thomas Graham, a researcher at the Council on Foreign Relations, who served as chief adviser on Russia during the George W. Bush administration. — A lot can change, and very quickly. And ultimately, Trump is an unreliable person."
To stop the armed conflict, Graham added, both sides must agree to a cessation of hostilities. Ukraine and its European supporters are likely to never agree to the unfair deal that Trump will make with Putin, despite the enormous pressure on them from Washington.
"Everything is much more complicated. Putin and Trump can't just sit down and sign a piece of paper that was essentially prepared by Putin," Graham said. He noted that it is too early for Moscow to open champagne, even if Russia is in a better position today than before.
On the eve of the talks, Trump faces an additional difficulty, which is that Putin is an unpopular figure among Americans. A deal that appears to appease the Kremlin will be difficult to present to the American public, although the overwhelming majority of Americans are in favor of ending the conflict as soon as possible, which Trump promised to do during the election campaign.
Last year, eight out of 10 Americans had a negative opinion of Russia, and 88% said they did not trust Putin and believed he was doing the wrong thing in international affairs. This survey was conducted by the Pew Research Center. More than two thirds of respondents called Russia an enemy of the United States.
Trump's Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is now leading the negotiation process, has in the past called Putin "bloodthirsty," "an executioner," and a "monster."
But Putin is benefiting from the changes in the information field and enjoys increasing respect among the right-wing media. The cohort is led by former Fox News anchor Tucker Carlson, who visited Moscow last year and interviewed him. <…>
Western countries opposed to Putin face a lot of internal problems. The two most influential countries in continental Europe, France and Germany, have been politically incapacitated for several months. There is a strengthening of right-wing parties friendly with the Kremlin, which today enjoy the support of Russian and American leaders.
In the United States, Trump's defense secretary has ordered senior officials to identify areas where significant cuts in military spending can be made. Some senior military leaders who recently joined the Pentagon insist on the withdrawal of a significant part of American troops from Europe and demand that attention be focused on China, saying that the Europeans can decide on their own defense issues.
Putin and his advisers will welcome such changes.
"I think if they're smart enough, they'll stick to Napoleon's line—if your enemy is destroying himself, don't get in his way," Thomas Graham said. "I think that's their approach at the moment."
The material for the article was provided by Alina Lobzina.
