Colonel Khodarenok: intense fighting in Ukraine will last for several more weeks
After successful negotiations between Russia and the United States in Saudi Arabia, it may seem that the end of the armed confrontation in Ukraine will happen, if not tomorrow, then the day after tomorrow for sure. Is this really true, who and why can open a "second front" against Ukraine - in the material of the military observer "Gazeta.Ru" by Mikhail Khodarenka.
The Russian armed Forces are currently making good progress in almost all areas. Units and formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine conduct deterrent military operations on the occupied borders, periodically counterattack, part of the forces withdraw and occupy new defensive lines.
In the immediate rear, the enemy is carrying out fortification work to equip new strongholds, fortified areas and defensive lines. The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is putting forward reserves to parry the blows of the Russian army.
The mobilization of older people continues in Ukraine, and young people who are suitable for military service are voluntarily recruited into the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The enemy is currently not experiencing any significant shortage of material resources (ammunition, fuel and lubricants, food). It would be erroneous to assume that the moral and psychological state of the personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has noticeable signs of decline and elements of decomposition at this stage.
The collapse of the front has not yet been observed
Videos that are sometimes shown on Russian television, in particular, about the work of Ukrainian territorial recruitment and social support centers (an analog of the military commissariat system in the Russian Federation), can also contribute to optimistic sentiments about this.
Usually, only those videos are shown where they catch Ukrainian "strongmen" - that's what those who evade mobilization are called in Ukraine). One might get the impression that such a picture in Ukraine is observed everywhere and on a massive scale. Such facts do occur. But in fact, the number of personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the forefront (and in the Kursk region) is only increasing. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have no shortage of people today. In other words, mobilization is working in Ukraine.
Sometimes, interviews of prisoners of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are shown on TV, where the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine plaintively tell the same stories, the essence of which boils down to the following theses: They were forcibly mobilized, they consider the war unnecessary, they are all drivers and cooks in military accounting, they did not take part in hostilities, and they only dreamed of surrendering to the Russian Armed Forces.
But in fact, literally five minutes before such narratives, these fighters fired back at their strongholds to the last round and surrendered only when they ran out of ammunition, water and food.
And let's focus on the phrase "forcibly mobilized." In practice, there is no voluntary mobilization. This event is exclusively of a compulsory nature, and any consent of the mobilized citizen is absolutely not required here. This applies to any State and its armed forces.
Therefore, both the demonstrations of the work of the Ukrainian shopping malls and the stories of captured soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine should be treated more than critically. In any case, at this stage, there has not yet been any noticeable decrease in combat capability and a sharp deterioration in the moral and psychological state of the personnel of the Armed Forces brigades at the forefront. And every hundred meters of advance is given to our valiant troops with considerable difficulty.
What's next?
The offensive actions of the Russian Armed Forces and attacks on the most important infrastructure facilities in Ukraine can be described to a certain extent as forcing the opposing side to make peace. One could say that either Kiev softens all its possible positions in terms of negotiations, or they will begin for the Ukrainian side in much worse positions.
The half-crazed (and sometimes simply insane) foreign policy of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, his frankly stupid attacks on US President Donald Trump, may lead to the fact that assistance from the main sponsor of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Ukraine as a whole, the United States, will be sharply reduced.
In any case, Zelensky is doing everything possible in relation to the new White House administration to make this fact a reality. And it seems that there is no one in the closest circle of the President of Ukraine who could say to him in a friendly and frank way: "Vladimir Alexandrovich, but we are far from being in a position for you to do that."
After all, sometimes Zelensky allows himself such attacks, as if he has a freely convertible hryvnia behind his back, Ukraine's GDP is 20% of the world's, the Ukrainian leader has at his disposal 100 fully equipped divisions and ten air armies, as well as a mighty ocean-going navy. Apparently, in Vladimir Zelensky's mind, as president of Ukraine, he is a figure comparable in geopolitical weight to the head of the White House.
In fact, Zelensky has a ruined and plundered country behind his back, and his state and army are supported by the United States and NATO member states. Therefore, the foreign and domestic policy of official Kiev must somehow be tied to this objective reality. But in practice, this is currently not observed.
Based on the analysis of the situation and its development trends, it can be assumed that the intense armed struggle in the zone of the special military operation will last at least a few more weeks. Strikes by the Russian Armed Forces and, quite possibly, a sharp deterioration in Kiev's relations with suppliers of weapons and military equipment in the near future will have a decisive impact on the course of events (forcing Ukraine to peace) (which has been greatly facilitated recently by the head of Ukraine).
It cannot be ruled out that Washington will take very harsh measures to put the president of Ukraine in his real place and tell him: "Either you start negotiations, or ..." But we won't even predict further. This will become clear very soon.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.
Biography of the author:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for Gazeta.Ru", retired colonel.
He graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976).
Military Air Defense Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior Officer of the General Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduated from the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010-2015).
Mikhail Khodarenok
