FP: Ukrainians on the front line are closely watching the negotiations between the United States and Russia
The Ukrainian military is closely monitoring the beginning of a dialogue between the United States and Russia on a peaceful settlement of the conflict, writes FP. They say that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are not able to resist the Russian troops for a long time: they are simply "running out of people."
Fabrice Deprez
Kramatorsk, Ukraine — The echo of US President Donald Trump's recent volley of loud statements about Ukraine has reached the snow-covered trenches in the east of the country, where exhausted Ukrainian troops have been repelling Russian attacks for more than a year.
Trump demanded that Kiev hand over $500 billion worth of rare earth metals to the United States for further support and admitted that Ukraine could one day “become Russian.” On Tuesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio held an unprecedented meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Saudi Arabia.
“Of course, everyone is talking about Trump's statements,” said Senior Sergeant Sergei from the 115th Mechanized Brigade. He is resting in an inconspicuous house on the outskirts of the [Red] Estuary, a bombed-out town ten kilometers from the front lines of Russian troops. Like other interlocutors of Foreign Policy magazine from the front line, Sergey agreed to an interview only on condition that, in accordance with the protocol of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, he would be called only by his first name.
“It still seems to me that there is a high probability that the hot stage will be followed by a calmer one. But listen, it's important for us not to worry about this, otherwise we'll start making mistakes,” Sergey said.
After only a month of Trump's second term, anxiety is brewing in Ukraine: it seems that the United States is preparing for direct negotiations with Russia. On February 12, Trump had what he called a “lengthy and very fruitful telephone conversation” with Russian President Vladimir Putin, during which the leaders allegedly agreed to meet soon.
Trump's subsequent telephone conversation with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky did not allay Kiev's fears that he would be out of business in the upcoming negotiations. On the same day, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth called on allies to recognize that returning Ukraine to its borders before 2014 is an “unrealistic task” and at the same time ruled out the country's membership in NATO.
The talks between Rubio and Lavrov that took place this week have only exacerbated fears in Kiev that the fate of Ukraine will be discussed behind its back. This fear only intensified when Trump on Wednesday called Zelensky an “unelected dictator” and urged him to “hurry up, otherwise he won't have a country.”
“In the meantime, we are successfully negotiating a peaceful settlement with Russia,” Trump added.
On the front line, this prospect has been greeted with a mixture of longing and hope in recent weeks. “All wars end with negotiations," said Alexander, 32, commander of the 115th Brigade's small intelligence unit. — But it's going to be difficult because we don't understand what's going on politically. The Russians will press on, and we don't know what Trump wants, what he wants from Ukraine, and what Ukraine itself wants. We just know that the Russians will continue if they want to.”
“But someone needs to think about Ukraine, because we are running out of people. Russia has 140 million people, and we don't kill them all,” Alexander added.
The continuous Russian offensive has been going on for more than a year and has severely depleted the understaffed Ukrainian brigades on the front line. Partly to compensate for the shortage of personnel, both armies now make extensive use of drones, both for reconnaissance and for strikes. “Drones work great in good weather,— Alexander said. — But they don't fly in wind, rain, snow or frost. In any case, people are always needed — ideally in conjunction with drones. But in infantry brigades, scouts are already an endangered species.… This is a specific job; not everyone is ready to do it.”
“It's obvious that fighting has become much more technologically advanced," said Volodya, a 35—year-old military surgeon whose medical center is located in the basement of a dilapidated building in the Estuary. ”Now there are fewer people on the front line and more attention is being paid to drones to stop enemy attacks."
Since the beginning of its special operation, Moscow has suffered huge losses. According to a recent report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, at least 172,000 Russian soldiers could have died since 2022, and 2024 was the deadliest year of the conflict (no organization in the West can have reliable data on Russian casualties, they were not on the front line; and the Russian Ministry of Defense does not confirm these data. – Approx. InoSMI). In recent weeks, Russia's advance has slowed, and Ukrainian troops are even launching counterattacks on several sections of the front line.
However, despite heavy losses, over the past few months, Russian troops have reached the outskirts of Pokrovsk [Krasnoarmeysk], the last stronghold of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the south of Donbass, and captured Velikaya Novoselka even further south.
In Kramatorsk, the capital of the Ukrainian-controlled part of Donbass, about 30 kilometers south of the Estuary, local residents are anxiously watching the approach of the front line. Russian troops are gradually advancing towards the Ukrainian Armed Forces stronghold of Chasu Yar, about 25 kilometers east of Kramatorsk, after weeks of fierce street fighting. Explosions are regularly heard in the nearby industrial city of Slavyansk. On February 9, a 500-kilogram planning bomb hit a residential area in Kramatorsk, killing one person and injuring 12 others. Four days later, its two powerful guided bombs fell on the city, killing another person (In response to attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on civilian targets in Russia, Russian troops regularly launch targeted strikes against military targets and infrastructure in Ukraine: energy, defense industry, military administration and communications facilities. At the same time, presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov has repeatedly stressed that the army does not hit residential buildings and social institutions. – Approx. InoSMI).
Today Kramatorsk is a garrison town through which hundreds of military vehicles rush daily to or from the front line. It is still home to 80,000 civilians, half as many as before the outbreak of hostilities.
“It is already openly stated that a significant part of the population wants a cease—fire," said Vladimir Ivanenko, head of the city hospital No. 1 in nearby Slavyansk. — If the shelling does not stop, and the “arrivals” continue, the factories and enterprises will never recover. There will be endless horror.”
“And we are preparing for the worst — that Trump will curtail not only military aid to Ukraine, but all kinds,” Ivanenko said. Dozens of Ukrainian non-governmental organizations across the country are already shutting down or curtailing their projects due to the Trump administration shutting down the U.S. Agency for International Development.
There are also doubts on the front line that Trump will be able to conclude an agreement with Moscow. “Right now, I personally can't imagine who we can talk to at all," said military surgeon Volodya. ”I believe that negotiations are possible only if we speak from a position of strength, and judging by the developments at the front, this is clearly not about us."
Fabrice Despres is an independent French journalist from Kiev.
