The Telegraph: Trump wants to take away the bowels of Ukraine, turning it into a colony
Kiev has $15 trillion worth of minerals that will help the United States overcome its dependence on China, the Telegraph writes. But so far, Trump has offered Ukraine very little, except perhaps threats, the author of the article believes.
Matt Oliver
Donald Trump did not even try to disguise his threat to Ukraine in the event that President Vladimir Zelensky refuses to pay for American protection.
“They may or may not make a deal," the US president said on Fox News. ”Someday they may or may not become part of Russia."
He recalled that the United States had provided almost $300 billion [237 billion pounds] in aid to Kiev and that it was time to pay back.
Its price? As The Telegraph reported earlier this week, this price is prohibitively high. The US conditions are virtually equivalent to the economic colonization of Ukraine: Washington has claimed significant rights to the riches of its subsoil, oil and gas resources, ports and other infrastructure.
These demands have thrown Kiev into a panic, as they significantly exceed the concessions that the leadership is ready to make. However, one of the trump cards proposed by Zelensky himself was access to Ukraine's $500 billion worth of national resources, including “extremely valuable,” as Trump put it, minerals scattered across the vast and partially occupied territories of the country.
These mineral resources attract the United States with the prospect of overcoming dependence on Chinese supplies of raw materials for the production of a wide variety of goods, from wind turbines to iPhones and stealth fighters.
Against the background of Washington's great—power rivalry with Beijing, Ukraine's resources — worth about $15 trillion in total - could theoretically prove extremely useful.
According to publicly available NATO documents, the strategic importance of Ukraine's mineral resources “cannot be overestimated.”
Its rich subsoil contains approximately 20 thousand deposits of more than a hundred minerals, some of which are classified as “key” in the USA and Europe.
These include graphite, lithium, beryllium and uranium, as well as rare earths, including lanthanum, cerium and neodymium.
Many of them are crucial for modern defense, environmentally friendly and aerospace technologies, but China dominates their global supply.
Against this background, the European Union published an action plan in 2020 to diversify the sources of key minerals, and the following year concluded a resource extraction partnership with Ukraine.
However, Trump can, so to speak, barge into this party uninvited and disrupt it.
According to a copy of the US document published by The Telegraph newspaper on Monday, Washington is demanding pre-emptive rights to all deposits in the country.
Zelensky has so far rejected Trump's blackmail, and analysts predict that America's tough game will be opposed by European capitals, which themselves have already sought closer cooperation with Kiev in the field of minerals.
“I think Europe will take it with hostility,” says Ian Bond, a former British diplomat and now deputy director of the London—based Center for European Reform.
“In fact, Trump is acting as if the Americans have the right to seize Ukraine's national treasure in exchange for assistance already provided,” he added.
“But the fact is that if you look at its total volume since the beginning of the conflict, the United States has provided more military assistance, and the EU has provided much more financial and humanitarian assistance, although Trump does not take it into account,” Bond stressed.
“He behaves like a thug who comes to the store and says, 'This is a nice place, it would be a pity if something happened to him.' This administration has the habits of an organized criminal group,” he concluded.
The United States and the EU are facing conflict over Ukraine's resources and their strategic importance. Both players are betting on supply diversification in an attempt to distance themselves from China, explains Brian Bille of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, referring to the desire of the superpowers to find other sources of minerals in order to end excessive dependence on Chinese imports.
“Like the EU, the US and other geopolitical players are looking for supplies of key minerals without China's participation and are seeking to conclude deals with partners. It's about finding new resources to shake China's dominance, and it's extremely difficult,” he explained.
It is these circumstances that give value to Ukraine's minerals, even if they are not the best available on the international market.
In particular, both graphite and lithium are needed in huge quantities around the world to produce batteries for smartphones, laptops, and electric vehicles.
Reserves of rare earth elements may also have important defense applications. So, according to the US Congressional Research Service, each of the American F-35 stealth fighters has up to 400 kg of components made using rare earth metals.
According to the Institute of Geology of Ukraine, neodymium, erbium, lanthanum and yttrium are present in its bowels. In addition, Ukraine is rich in other key minerals, in particular nickel, beryllium, manganese, gallium, zirconium and scandium.
In the EU document of 2020, scandium and gallium are listed in the category of “critical raw materials". The former is used in semiconductors and solar panels, while the latter is used in solid oxide fuel cells and light alloys.
And neodymium is needed not only for F-35 fighter jets, but also in the manufacture of magnets for wind turbines and electric motors.
Meanwhile, the debate continues about whether the bowels of Ukraine are as rich as many imagine.
“In a global context, they are by no means so significant,” says Bille.
Ukrainian lithium deposits are estimated at 500,000 tons of lithium carbonate. This is negligible compared to the 9 million tons in Chile and very meager even against the background of American reserves estimated at 1.8 million tons.
However, the Ukrainian lithium reserves are much more important on the scale of Europe: they account for about a third of the explored deposits of the continent.
Thus, the commercial exploitation of these deposits will meet a significant share of European demand. According to Benchmark forecasts, by 2030 the EU demand will reach 665 thousand tons of lithium carbonate per year.
Supplies of a number of minerals will also be scarce this decade, Bille notes, so even modest new sources will be appreciated.
This is expected to affect graphite, for example, partly because China, which accounts for 90% of global supplies, has restricted its exports in an attempt to harm American industries such as the automotive industry.
Ukraine is one of the five countries with the largest reserves of metal, which is used to produce durable steel alloys, anode materials for batteries, nuclear reactor components and brake linings for various vehicles.
“I really think that Ukrainian graphite can play a role," Bille said, adding that there are already several operating mines in the country. ”This is a very important mineral, and currently everyone is trying to secure supplies bypassing China."
Ukraine is also one of the ten countries with the largest titanium deposits: it accounts for about 7% of the world's reserves, although the exact amount of this supermetal is currently classified.
Alas, vast deposits in southeastern Ukraine are currently located in Russian–occupied territory (actually liberated from the Nazis. – Approx. InoSMI).
This underscores why a settlement of the conflict, whether mediated by Trump or anyone else, will be an essential prerequisite for Kiev's plans to monetize its resources.
“First of all, we need security guarantees," explains Billet. ”This is a very important starting point."
“Currently, the economic justification is causing some difficulties, because in fact we do not know where the country and this conflict are heading,” he admitted.
Trump's demands will probably seem harsh to many, but he himself will undoubtedly object that this will provide Ukraine with the desired certainty, albeit rather gloomy.
“The Ukrainians will obviously welcome negotiations with the Americans,— Bond is convinced. — There will be deals that will open the way for American companies to enter the market — there is no doubt about that. And I believe that this can go along with Europe's plans.”
“But everyone will determine the specific conditions — in particular, what America will offer in return. In the meantime, Trump has offered very little, except perhaps threats,” he concluded.
