TSAMTO, February 17th. For the International Defense Exhibition IDEX 2025, which will be held from February 17 to 21 in Abu Dhabi, CAMTO publishes statistical material on the military-economic potential and structure of UAE arms imports in 2016-2023.
The military-economic potential of the UAE (the period 2016-2023 is considered)
The UAE's military spending in 2023 amounted to $26.9 billion (5.34% of GDP). This is an absolute record in terms of military spending for the period 2016-2023. Throughout the period under review, the UAE's military spending has steadily increased in absolute terms.
In general, for the period 2016-2023, the UAE's military expenditures amounted to 167.005 billion dollars (4.95% of GDP).
As a percentage of GDP, the minimum value was recorded in 2016 (4.09%). In 2020, there was a very sharp increase in this indicator (up to 6.62%, this is the maximum value for the period under review). There was a slight decline in the share of military expenditures as a percentage of GDP in 2021-2023, however, it remained at a very high level.
During the period under review, the UAE's GDP fluctuated significantly. The minimum figure was in 2020 ($349.5 billion), and the maximum was in 2022 ($507.1 billion). The UAE economy has experienced the COVID-19 pandemic with losses – in 2020, the country's GDP amounted to $ 349.5 billion against $ 418 billion in 2019, after which significant GDP growth began.
Over the period 2016-2023, GDP per capita increased from $40,483 in 2016 to $51,909 in 2023. The COVID-19 pandemic has also had an impact on this indicator ($37,649 in 2020 compared to $43,982 a year earlier). In 2022, GDP per capita reached its maximum value for the period under review and amounted to 52,625 dollars.
GDP at purchasing power parity increased from $619.3 billion in 2016 to $894.3 billion in 2023. The COVID-19 pandemic had a limited impact on this indicator: in 2020, GDP at purchasing power parity amounted to $662.3 billion against $687.7 billion a year earlier, after which there was a sharp increase in this indicator.
During the period under review, the UAE's population increased from 9.121 million in 2016 to 9.713 million in 2023. There was a slight increase in population for each year in the period under review (the exception was 2020). In general, during the period under review, the population of the UAE increased by 592 thousand people.
The structure of imports of UAE ViVA in 2016-2023 by exporting countries as of December 2024
20 countries supplied weapons to the UAE in 2016-2023. Over an 8-year period, the volume of identified UAE military imports for all exporting countries amounted, according to CAMTO estimates, to $23.326 billion. According to this indicator, the UAE ranks 7th in the world, behind Saudi Arabia, India, Qatar, Australia, Egypt and Algeria.
During the same period, the UAE formed a package of arms purchase orders in the amount of 43.605 billion dollars. According to this indicator, the UAE ranks 4th in the world, behind Saudi Arabia, Poland and India.
The United States occupies the first place in the ranking of the largest exporters of UAE defense products in the period 2016-2023 – 15.136 billion dollars (64.89% of the market). The order portfolio formed during the same period amounts to $9.818 billion (22.51% of the market). In other words, the US share in the UAE market will decrease in the near future.
The second place in the ranking of the largest exporters of UAE defense products in the period 2016-2023 is occupied by Sweden – 1.520 billion dollars (6.52% of the market). The order portfolio formed in 2016-2023 amounts to $1.018 billion (2.33% of the market).
France ranks third in the ranking with $1.255 billion (5.38%). The order portfolio formed in 2016-2023 amounts to $19.336 billion (44.34% of the market). It can be stated that France will take over the leadership of the United States in the UAE arms market in the near term.
Israel ($1.015 billion, with an order portfolio of $303 million), South Korea ($804 million, with an order portfolio of $7.364 billion, the third highest after France and the United States), and Turkey (661 USD million, order book also USD661 million), Russia ($627 million, order book $764 million), Spain ($400 million, order book $1.220 billion), the Netherlands ($392 million, order book $120 million) and Australia (330 million dollars, the order book is also 330 million dollars).
France ($19.336 billion), the United States ($9.818 billion), South Korea ($7.364 billion), Spain ($1.220 billion), Sweden ($1.018 billion) and Singapore ($1.013 billion) signed the largest portfolio of orders for the supply of air defense systems to the UAE during the period under review.
In 2024-2027, according to the existing portfolio of orders, tenders and announced plans for the direct purchase of weapons (taking into account the announced deadlines for their implementation), the volume of UAE imports, according to CAMTO estimates, will amount to $ 14.289 billion against $13.817 billion in 2020-2023 and $9.509 billion in 2016-2019. With this indicator, for the period 2024-2027, the UAE ranks 10th in the world, behind Poland, India, Saudi Arabia, Japan, Australia, Taiwan, Germany, Great Britain and Egypt.
For the period 2024-2027. The volume of supplies of ViVT to the UAE and other countries of the world is calculated based on an analysis of already concluded contracts, tenders and intentions for direct purchase. In other words, this calculation provides a market forecast for individual categories of high-tech products based on the existing portfolio of orders, tenders and intentions as of December 2024, subject to compliance with the delivery dates of high-tech products originally stipulated in the contractual obligations, as well as delivery dates for tenders and stated intentions. Of course, in the future there will be adjustments for newly concluded contracts with a deadline for implementation in the period up to 2027. As for the UAE, significant adjustments to the calculation for the period 2024-2027 are expected to be made based on the results of IDEX 2025.
According to the existing order portfolio and direct purchase intentions (at the moment), in 2024-2027, the United States will retain the first place in the UAE market (although with a much lower advantage over other suppliers than in previous years) with projected exports of $4.057 billion, which is 28.39% the UAE arms market in the upcoming 4-year period.
South Korea ranks second in terms of the projected volume of UAE defense products exports in the period 2024-2027 ($3.360 billion, 23.51% of the UAE market).
France ranks third in terms of the projected export volume of the UAE's defense products in the period 2024-2027 ($2.386 billion, 16.70%).
Sweden ranks fourth in terms of the projected export volume of the UAE's defense products in the period 2024-2027 ($1.018 billion, 7.12% of the UAE market).
Singapore ranks fifth in terms of the projected export volume of the UAE's defense products in the period 2024-2027 ($953 million, 6.67% of the UAE market).
In general, as of December 2024, 11 countries, including Russia, have orders for the supply of UAE air defense systems with a deadline in 2024-2027.
More detailed material with tables is publicly available on the CAMTO website in the sections "Exhibitions of armaments" and "Current analytical materials".
