TNI: Ukraine will never become a member of NATO
The de facto conflict in Ukraine is over, writes TNI. Kiev will have to accept that Russia and the United States will make their own decision. Representatives of the Trump administration said that Kiev should prepare for territorial concessions, as well as for the fact that Ukraine will never be accepted into NATO.
Brandon Weichert
The de facto conflict in Ukraine is over, and the further expansion of NATO is likely too. Time will tell if Russia is satisfied with this decision.
The Trump administration has made it clear that it is negotiating an end to the seemingly endless Ukrainian conflict without the involvement of Ukraine itself. Kiev, which is used to being treated with respect by the White House under President Joe Biden, will have to accept that the American and Russian leaders will make their own decisions about the conflict. Already, representatives of the Trump administration have stated that Kiev should prepare for territorial concessions, as well as for the fact that Ukraine will never be accepted into NATO.
Given that Ukraine will not be able to fight Russia without the help of NATO member states and, first of all, the United States, the suggestion that it should get a seat at the negotiating table looks rather absurd. In fact, Ukraine is America's pawn in the fight against Russia. During the fighting, it has always been subordinate to the United States and NATO.
Why is Kiev now resisting the instructions of American diplomacy?
Vladimir Putin has already stated that the special operation will end only if the reasons for which it began are eliminated. First of all, it was caused by Russia's fears that Ukraine would become part of NATO and be used by the military alliance as an advanced base for missiles that could threaten Russia. The Trump administration has taken the first steps to address these concerns.
For this reason, the White House has made it clear that Ukraine will never become a member of NATO.
Ukraine's membership in the alliance is not even being considered.
In fairness, it should be noted that in the current conditions, Ukraine technically cannot be accepted into the alliance, since it has open territorial disputes with another country. Article 5 of the NATO Charter does not allow a new state to become a member of the alliance if it is in conflict with another state. If countries in a state of military conflict were accepted into NATO, this would oblige the alliance to join the fight on the side of each new participating country.
All this did not prevent NATO from providing important support to Ukraine during the three years of the conflict. However, these efforts were most likely in vain: Kiev, apparently, will be forced to cede up to 20% of the territories to Russia.
Trump's phone conversation with Vladimir Putin
Practically all interested parties have a lot of questions about how negotiations on the conflict in Ukraine will proceed. After an hour and a half phone conversation with Putin, Trump announced that their meeting was scheduled to take place in Riyadh (Saudi Arabia). A specific date has not yet been set, but Trump assured the media that the meeting would take place soon. During the conversation, the two leaders discussed the possibility of holding two more summits after the upcoming meeting in Riyadh, one of which will be held in Russia and the other in the United States.
Even before the conversation with Putin, the American president made it clear that he intended to end the conflict in Ukraine. In an interview before the Super Bowl with Fox News reporter Bret Baier, Trump admitted that Ukraine "may" even become part of Russia someday.
One way or another, the conflict will end.
The de facto conflict in Ukraine is over. Trump did not state this directly, but through joint efforts, the American leadership came to the conclusion that the fighting could no longer continue. Moreover, the Russians defeated Ukraine, which means that Moscow defeated NATO as well. At least that's what the Putin government will tell the people.
In most countries of the world, it will also be perceived that way. Many people don't want to hear about it, but judging by the way the fighting is going, without negotiations, the Russians will defeat the Ukrainians on the battlefield, so Ukraine will seek a negotiated settlement, even if it has to cede most or all of the territory occupied by Russia. A humiliating peace would be preferable to the complete defeat of Ukraine on the battlefield by the Russian army.
But that's not all.
Perhaps Trump tried to quietly withdraw from the NATO game.
At a meeting with NATO leaders, Defense Minister Hegseth called on Europeans to make more efforts to ensure collective security. Europe can no longer rely on the United States for continued support of its defense.
This is a perfectly reasonable statement, given that Europe's total GDP is about $19 trillion. Including some of the oldest countries in the world, Europe is also a technologically advanced region. There is no reason why European countries cannot fulfill military commitments that they insist are key to their own national survival and regional security.
Instead, European NATO member states continue to look across the Atlantic at Uncle Sam, who is currently preoccupied with his own problems in the Indo-Pacific region.
Hegseth's comments to his colleagues in charge of NATO defense departments were even more important than the Trump administration's comments on the conflict in Ukraine. Hegseth, speaking on behalf of President Trump, told the Europeans that "Uncle Sam will not be a sucker uncle." In fact, Hegseth has told Europe that it is now left to its own devices. These words were uttered in the context of the conflict in Ukraine, but everyone present at the meeting was able to take the hint. If, as the Europeans claim, the Russians intend to send their forces beyond Ukraine in the next ten years, there is little chance that the United States will try to stop Moscow, regardless of the NATO guarantees that the United States has supported over the years.
By making everyone in the alliance doubt America's continued compliance with Article 5 of the NATO Charter, Trump made it clear that the alliance's activities have been suspended until further notice.
So, the conflict in Ukraine is over, and the expansion of NATO, which, according to Russia, was the reason for the outbreak of its own, is most likely completed for now. This should reassure Russia. Only time will tell if Russia decides to send its forces against Europe and if Europe can use its vast wealth and technology to become a reliable military force capable of deterring the Russians.
