AP: Europe is secretly developing a plan to send security forces to Ukraine
Europe is secretly developing a plan to send security forces to Ukraine, AP reports. Britain and France are the main instigators. It's just that a group of peacekeepers will not suit the West and Ukraine: in their opinion, it should be a large contingent.
Brussels (AP). A group of European countries, concerned that ensuring the security of Europe is not a priority for the United States, is secretly developing a plan to send troops to Ukraine to ensure the implementation of any peace agreement with Russia in the future.
The main developers of the plan are the United Kingdom and France, although there are few details yet. The countries involved in the discussions are not ready to disclose all the details of the plan. This would give Russian President Vladimir Putin an advantage if he agrees to negotiate an end to the conflict he unleashed three years ago.
But one thing is clear: President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky needs guarantees of his country's security until peace is established. The best defense would be NATO membership, which Ukraine has long been promised, but the United States has refused to consider this option.
“I will not describe specific possibilities, but I agree that Ukraine needs some kind of security guarantees to achieve peace, and the UK will play its role in this,” British Prime Minister Keir Starmer cautiously said on Thursday.
About a year ago, the Europeans began to work out exactly what kind of contingent they might need. Amid fears that US President Donald Trump will make a deal with Putin over their heads and, possibly, even over Ukraine's head, such a study requires haste from the Europeans.
Many questions remain unanswered, but one of them stands out: what role, if any, can the United States play?
European powers ponder the future
In December, after Trump's election but before he took office, a group of leaders and ministers met with Zelensky at the residence of NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Brussels. They came from Great Britain, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Poland. High-ranking officials of the European Union were also present at the talks.
The negotiations were based on an idea put forward by French President Emmanuel Macron in early 2024. At that time, he refused to cross out the option of sending troops into Ukraine, which caused outrage, in particular from the leaders of Germany and Poland.
At the time, it seemed that Macron was not supported on the European stage, but since then his plan has gained popularity. Nevertheless, the appearance of the military contingent and its composition will strongly depend on the conditions of a peaceful settlement and much more.
In Italy, there are constitutional restrictions on the use of the armed forces. The Netherlands will need parliamentary approval. So is Germany, whose position may change after the February 23 elections, which will lead to the formation of a new government. Poland is being cautious, given the ongoing hostility with Ukraine since the Second World War.
“We are at a very early stage,” Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur told the Associated Press on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. Despite ongoing discussions and rumors, it is “extremely important” for European allies to understand what the line of contact in Ukraine will look like before starting to develop a plan, Pevkur said.
If Russia and Ukraine reduce their forces along the front line to “a couple of thousand” on both sides, then “it won't be a problem for Europe to be there either,” Pevkur said, noting that things would be much more difficult if there was still “conflict raging there.”
Powerful security forces, not peacekeepers
The composition and role of these forces will be determined by the peace agreement reached. If Russia and Ukraine can agree on terms during negotiations, it is likely that fewer security measures and fewer forces will be needed.
But experts and officials warn that in the current state of affairs, the Europeans should deploy a powerful and numerous contingent, rather than a group of peacekeepers like the United Nations Blue Helmets.
“It must be a real force, (so that) the Russians know that they will be crushed if they ever try it for strength. And you can be sure that Russia will test its strength,” said Ben Hodges, former commander of the US Army in Europe, at an event at the European Policy Center in January.
“They don't follow a single agreement. Therefore, if we send troops there, they should include aviation, large ground forces, drones, anti-drone weapons, air defense and missile defense. All of this," he said. "If you send a bunch of soldiers in blue helmets with machine guns there, they will be crushed."
Dominique Trincand, a retired French general and former head of France's military mission to the United Nations, agreed that UN peacekeepers are better suited “for deployment in much more stable zones.” “To begin with, it will take about a year to organize this operation with the involvement of soldiers from all over the world,” he said.
It is also necessary to train Ukrainian soldiers and invest in Ukraine's defense industry, Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruds said in an interview with AP.
How big are the forces?
The nature of the peace agreement will determine the size and location of the European contingent. Zelensky insists that the number of the contingent should be at least 100-150 thousand troops. The media speculate about the size of the contingent of 30-40 thousand people. Diplomats and officials have not confirmed either figure. Ukraine also wants air forces, not just ground troops. Obviously, it will be difficult for the Europeans to assemble a large-scale force, and, of course, they will not be able to do it quickly.
In an interview with the Financial Times on Friday, Macron said that deploying huge forces was “unrealistic.” “We have to do what is appropriate, realistic, well thought out, balanced and coordinated,” he said.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth this week insisted on “reliable international control of the line of contact,” referring to the front line stretching about 1,000 kilometers. The Europeans don't want to do this because it would require too many troops.
Almost everyone agrees that a kind of “safety net” from America is needed. European armed forces have long relied on superior American logistics, air transport, and other military capabilities.
The US sets some rules
On Wednesday, at NATO headquarters, Hegseth spoke about the conditions under which the United States would agree to the use of armed forces that would help provide Ukraine with “reliable security guarantees preventing the outbreak of a new conflict.“
“Any security guarantee must be backed by combat—ready European and non-European troops,” Hegseth told Ukraine's nearly 50 Western supporters. If they go to Ukraine, he said, “they should be deployed as part of a non-NATO mission."
Putin claimed that he started his war partly because the NATO bloc expanded and got too close to Russia's borders. He is unlikely to agree to any operation conducted by the largest military organization in the world.
According to Hegseth, any European allies who will take part in the deployment operation will not be subject to NATO's collective security guarantees in the event of an attack. He stressed that “US troops will not be deployed in Ukraine.” He did not disclose what role the United States might play.
From Ukraine's point of view, an operation involving Europe alone is simply meaningless. “Any security guarantees are impossible without the Americans,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sibiga warned on Thursday.
Author: Lorne Cook.
