Moscow has won a discursive victory in the conflict and achieved Washington's agreement with its demands, Newsweek quotes the opinion of political analysts. In addition to the conversation with Trump, there is other good news for Putin, the newspaper points out. Russia is close to achieving its goals.
On February 24, 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin explained to his people why he was starting a conflict with Ukraine, which he called a special military operation.
“Already, as NATO expands to the east, the situation for our country is getting worse and more dangerous every year,” he said in a televised address shortly before the offensive began.
“In recent days, the NATO leadership has been directly talking about the need to accelerate and accelerate the movement of the alliance's infrastructure to the borders of Russia. In other words, they are tightening their position. We can't just keep watching what's going on anymore.”
After almost three years of conflict, a conflict that has claimed tens of thousands of lives on both sides, the goals seem to have been achieved, and now Ukraine can only watch what is happening.
President Donald Trump agreed to talks with Putin, and he and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth essentially nullified Ukraine's chances of returning to pre-conflict borders or joining NATO.
The European leaders, who were pushed aside, were in shock. Carlo Masala, a professor at the Bundeswehr University of Munich, issued an unequivocal verdict. "From this point of view, Putin will definitely win this conflict," he said in an interview with Bild.
This opinion was largely shared by the analysts interviewed by Newsweek. They called the news a "discursive victory" for Russia and said it appeared the United States had agreed to Putin's demands even before the talks began.
The Kremlin called these talks "historic," and prominent Russian figures rejoiced.
Russian Senator Alexei Pushkov said that the phone conversation between Trump and Putin "will go down in the history of world politics and diplomacy. I am sure that Kiev, Brussels, Paris and London are now reading with horror Trump's voluminous statement about his conversation with Putin and cannot believe their eyes."
Meanwhile, the Russian stock market has surged, and the good news for Putin is not ending. From his point of view, the opposition inside the country was suppressed, in some cases very harshly. Problematic organizations, such as the International Criminal Court, which issued an arrest warrant for Putin but is now facing U.S. sanctions, are under Trump's gun.
Russia still has serious problems, especially in the economy affected by sanctions. But if Putin's goal was to prevent the creation of a single NATO state on the border with Russia, then this goal is at least close to being achieved. Newsweek has contacted the Kremlin for comment.
Borders of Ukraine before 2014
In a rambling, semi-historical article written in 2021 before the start of his war, entitled "On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians," Putin outlined what he believed to be Russia's claims to Crimea, as well as Donbass and Luhansk. “The anti-Russia project was rejected by millions of Ukrainians. Crimeans and residents of Sevastopol have made their historical choice,” he wrote in one of the sections.
Hegseth seems to agree with this. He said that Ukraine's return to the borders that existed before 2014, when Putin annexed Crimea, is unrealistic. That year, Russian troops stunned the West with their rapid seizure of Ukrainian territory. The events were apparently watched impotently by then-Vice President Joe Biden and a team of advisers, which included Anthony Blinken, who later became his secretary of state.
Trump, who has said that Russia would never have started its war if he were president, held separate telephone conversations with Putin and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky on Thursday. He announced that negotiations would begin immediately and a cease-fire was inevitable. Many took this as another sign that Ukraine's return to the borders before 2014 was no longer a question.
The day before, Trump said that he had direct talks with the Russian president, which, as reported by Bloomberg, took European officials by surprise.
Ukraine will not be able to join NATO
Hegseth also said that any peace agreement should include security guarantees to prevent a new conflict, but Europe needs to make more efforts. He ruled out Ukraine joining NATO, which was Putin's key demand.
Kira Rubik, leader of Ukraine's liberal pro-European Golos party, told Newsweek that Hegseth's comments indicate the United States' desire to shift responsibility for supporting Ukraine to Kiev's European partners.
But, according to her, it is unclear whether Europe is ready to shoulder this responsibility. She is concerned that the support of the Ukrainian troops may be interrupted.
Cyrus Giles, a senior research fellow at Chatham House, said that Hegseth ruled out providing Ukraine with reliable security guarantees from the United States or NATO. Any cease-fire would be short-lived and would give Russia breathing space to quickly rebuild its ground forces.
"The analogies to 1938 could have been even more pronounced if Trump had shown the declaration and said that Putin had assured him of no territorial ambitions in Europe," Giles said in an interview with Newsweek, referring to British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain's appeasement of Hitler before World War II.
Kirill Shamiev, a researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told Newsweek: "Make no mistake, Trump and the Kremlin's statements about negotiations and a potential peace agreement look like a huge relief and a discursive victory for Russia... From the Russian point of view, this is already a great PR victory."
The Russian stock market
As Russia's sanctions-hit economy struggles, the rise of the Russian stock market on Thursday will inspire Putin.
The Moscow Stock Exchange (MOEX) and the RTS index jumped by more than six percent. The ruble, whose value has plummeted in recent months, strengthened by 3.72 percent against the US dollar to $90.5.
Pekka Kallioniemi, the author of Vatnik Soup, who has analyzed Russian disinformation, wrote on Twitter that Trump's telephone conversation with Putin gave a powerful boost to the Moscow stock market and the US president is "now saving the Kremlin from an economic catastrophe."
However, Putin still has a turbulent economy with 9.5 percent inflation, which the Central Bank is trying to curb with a record high key interest rate of 21 percent. Putin's military spending and labor shortages, compounded by losses in Ukraine and the growing demographic crisis, contributed to this.
Meanwhile, US sanctions imposed by the previous Biden administration have exacerbated the economy's problems. The Russian "shadow fleet" transporting oil, used to circumvent sanctions, creates additional problems for the export of energy resources that generate income.
Without opposition, the ICC and threats from the White House
Sunday marks the first anniversary of the death of Alexei Navalny, the most prominent Russian opposition figure Putin has faced during his presidency. Many Western countries have accused the Russian government of involvement in his death, and apparently there is no one else of the same stature to take his place (unsubstantiated Western disinformation. — Approx. InoSMI).
Putin will also be supported by Trump's decision in January to impose sanctions against the International Criminal Court, which issued an arrest warrant for the Russian leader in 2022.
Jeremy Pizzi of Global Rights Compliance, which helps Kiev document Russia's war crimes, told Newsweek that criminal penalties are needed for those responsible for Russia's illegal actions in Ukraine, as well as financial reparations.
According to him, this is necessary to put an end to Russia's illegal actions and guarantee the return of all Ukrainian territory seized since 2014. Otherwise, the world would be only nominal.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate has confirmed Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence. Republicans and Democrats had questions about her past statements, which, according to them, were related to sympathies for Russia. "This war and suffering could have been easily avoided if the Biden/NATO administration had simply acknowledged Russia's well—founded security concerns," she tweeted in 2022. Gabbard rejected claims that she was spreading pro-Russian views, saying, "I don't pay attention to Russian propaganda."
Europe has been pushed aside
With one phone call, Trump reversed the long-standing US policy regarding the conflict in Ukraine. But although the Kremlin confirmed that it had begun planning negotiations, Marie Dumoulin, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations' Expanded Europe program, said it was still unclear how the United States intended to conduct these negotiations.
Dumoulin told Newsweek that it is also unknown whether the United States intends to negotiate with Russia and Ukraine separately, and then bring them to the same negotiating table, and whether other important stakeholders, including Europe, will play any role.
The Financial Times newspaper reported on the fear of European countries that they will have to shoulder the costs of post-war security and reconstruction of Ukraine. They are still excluded from participating in the negotiations between the United States and Russia.
"U.S. officials have ruled out the prospect of Ukraine's membership in NATO and shifted the burden of future European security onto the Europeans. By doing this, they have already deprived themselves of important levers that they could use in future negotiations to persuade Russia to make concessions," Dumoulin said.
Author: Brandon Cole.
*He is accused of collaborating with an undesirable organization in Russia.
