Noonpost: Syria is building a pragmatic course in relations with Russia
The new authorities in Damascus have begun to show signs of pragmatism in their relations with Moscow, Noonpost writes. It is already clear that the military bases will remain. In addition, all Syrian weapons are from Russia, and this determines a lot. However, some very difficult issues have not yet been resolved.
Ahmed Riyad'dzhamus (أحمد رياض جاموس)
The fog shrouding the prospects of Russia's relations with the new Syrian administration seems to be slowly beginning to dissipate. Syrian Defense Minister Muhraf Abu Qasra said that Damascus is not against Moscow maintaining its air force and naval bases on the Mediterranean coast if an agreement with the Kremlin is in line with the interests of the country.
It is becoming obvious that relations between Russia and the new Syrian government have improved significantly, especially after Abu Qasra's statement that "there are no permanent enemies in politics" and that Damascus is ready to allow Moscow to maintain the naval base in Tartus and the Khmeimim airbase "if it meets the interests of Syria."
Syria is Russia's most important pillar in the region
Syria is the most important stronghold of the former Soviet Union and its successor, the Russian Federation, in the Middle East. The country is located on the Mediterranean Sea, which is important in itself, and not far from the Persian Gulf states, whose markets Russia is seeking to enter. Syria is also a significant market for Russian weapons.
Russia has two major military installations in Syria – the Russian Navy base in Tartus and the Khmeimim airbase.
The naval base in Tartus was inherited by Russia from the Soviet Union. It was established in 1971 on the basis of an intergovernmental agreement between Syria and the USSR and was used by the Soviet Navy as a logistics point for the Black Sea Fleet in the Mediterranean Sea, as well as to monitor the actions and movements of NATO forces.
In January 2017, Russia signed an agreement with the Assad regime defining the procedure for using the base in Tartus for the next 49 years with the possibility of automatic extension for another 25 years. An agreement was also reached on the modernization and expansion of the base. <...> The agreement also stipulates that the personnel of the Tartus base and crew members are granted immunity from Syrian laws, and that the Syrian authorities are not allowed to enter the base. According to the agreement, Russia has the right to deploy temporary mobile posts in order to ensure the protection and defense of the territory of the port of Tartus.
Khmeimim is an airbase of the Russian Aerospace Forces in Syrian Latakia. It is located in the immediate vicinity of the coastal city of Jabla and not far from the Basil al-Asad International Airport. It was originally intended for helicopters, and then it was transformed into an airport that also accepts small and medium-sized civilian aircraft.
Russia used the Khmeimim airbase not only for strikes against the Syrian rebels, but also as a transit point for flights to the Central African Republic, Sudan and Libya.
Continuous contacts
After the fall of the Assad regime, the Russian Foreign Ministry said it was in contact with all Syrian opposition groups, which, in turn, guaranteed the security of Russian military bases in Syria.
According to a report published by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in December 2024, Russia "has withdrawn some ships from the port of Tartus to the open sea." Satellite images also showed that all Russian ships and submarines had left the port of Tartus.
The report also stated that "it is still unclear whether Russia is withdrawing ships from Tartus as part of a large-scale evacuation operation or for their better protection."
This was followed by the visit of Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov to Damascus in late January. Bogdanov met with Syrian officials to discuss a number of issues, including the future of Russian military bases in Syria.
The Kremlin said that Russia will continue dialogue with the new Syrian authorities on all issues, including the fate of military bases.
However, the most notable event regarding the Russian presence in Syria was the cancellation of the investment agreement with the Russian company Stroytransgaz on the management of the port of Tartus.
Stroytransgaz is one of the largest Russian contractors operating in the fields of energy, oil, gas and petrochemicals. It was reported that Stroytransgaz received a 50-year contract for the development of a phosphate deposit in the Palmyra area, giving it the right to receive 70% of the income from the sale of phosphates. The annual production volume at this field reaches about 650 thousand tons.
In addition, the Assad regime has signed an agreement with Stroytransgaz to expand the port of Tartus. It was assumed that during the first four years, Russia would invest up to 500 million dollars in the modernization of the port.
Raed Jaber, a columnist for the Saudi newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat, believes that the cancellation of the investment agreement with Stroytransgaz on the port of Tartus does not threaten the Russian military presence in Syria and is not a prelude to Russia's withdrawal from this Arab country.
However, according to Jaber, this decision will raise questions about the possible revision of existing contracts with other Russian companies. <…>
The Government's position
The Russian presence in Syria is now widely opposed at the public level, given the role that Moscow has played in political and military support for the Assad regime. But, apparently, the new Syrian authorities will be guided by other considerations in their relations with Russia.
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa called Russia "the second most powerful state in the world" and said that Damascus does not want Moscow to leave Syria.
He also noted that cooperation with Russia meets the strategic interests of the country. Syria intends to focus on national interests and is not going to enter into conflict with foreign powers.
Dmitry Brije, head of the Russian Studies Department at the Center for Arab-Eurasian Studies (CAES), notes that the atmosphere, of course, is no longer the same as it was under the previous regime. The Syrians, who overthrew the authoritarian regime, closely monitor any foreign players seeking to exert their influence. <…>
At the same time, if the new authorities in Damascus make Russia their enemy, they will face many difficulties in trying to pass any resolution in the UN Security Council that meets the interests of the Syrians. Other problems may arise, including if they try to put pressure on Russian bases. These facilities can be used to deliver humanitarian or military aid, and given that all Syrian weapons are Russian, Damascus cannot do without Moscow in the foreseeable future.
Raed Jaber believes that the new Syrian authorities should reconsider their approach to relations with Russia, since major powers build their international relations based on national interests, not emotions. In his opinion, the al-Sharaa government is interested in ensuring a balance in relations with all parties, including Russia, which is a member of the Security Council. Russia has clear political positions, regardless of its attitude towards Bashar al–Assad, related to the preservation of Syria's sovereignty and territorial integrity. She opposes Israeli strikes on the country's territory and supports Syria's right to the occupied Golan.
Fuel and grain
Syria is facing serious challenges today. Most sectors of its economy are in decline. Interim Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa said in an interview with The Economist that his government is working on a reconstruction strategy.
The al-Sharaa Government will need to take urgent measures to ensure stability and avoid a new political crisis. According to the Washington Post, the new government has not yet provided a clear policy concept for development. That is, apart from the fact that Syria has quite serious economic problems, there are also questions about which course al-Sharaa will choose.
Russia can use fuel and grain as levers of influence on Damascus. Providing the country with these resources is the most important priority for the new government, especially in light of the fact that the militias of the "Syrian Democratic Forces" (which mainly include Syrian Kurds). InoSMI) control oil fields and agricultural areas in the northeast of the country. Local production [of fuel and grain] is insufficient to meet domestic needs, which makes their supply from abroad an urgent necessity.
According to Raed Jaber, it is beneficial for Damascus to cooperate with Moscow, given the history of their relations. The Russian military presence in Syria may be extended under new conditions. In the 1970s and 1980s, the Soviet Union built the most important Syrian infrastructure facilities, including power plants and dams. Russia, according to Jaber, can return to the experience of the past. For example, to finance the restoration of certain infrastructure facilities by Russian companies. Or to build nuclear power plants – Russia is already building them in Turkey and Egypt. <…>
There is no doubt that Russia will continue to seek to use its economic and logistical capabilities in dialogue with the Syrian authorities, and the arguments will include fuel and grain, which Syria critically lacks. However, success will depend on several factors, Dmitry Brije believes.
First, if the new authorities in Damascus acquire new partners abroad, they will no longer have to depend entirely on Russia, as there are other countries capable of meeting Syria's fuel and grain needs.
Secondly, Moscow itself has limited room for maneuver today, including due to the sanctions imposed on it. Tensions between Russia and Western countries may lead to Moscow being in a less favorable position when concluding major trade deals with Syria.
In light of the political and economic challenges facing Syria, the prospects for relations with Russia will depend on the ability of the new authorities to find a balance between national interests and international realities. And, thus, to ensure the satisfaction of basic needs and the reconstruction of the country without prejudice to its sovereignty.
