FT: Europe will pay for Ukraine — or Trump will come to an agreement with Putin without it
Europe was faced with a choice: to take responsibility for Ukraine's security or "live in the shadow of war," writes FT. Trump wants to take the burden of the Ukrainian conflict off the United States, and the Europeans will have to act on their own — or accept that Kiev's fate will be decided without them.
Sylvie Kaufmann
The worst nightmare of the continent's leaders is the agreement between Putin and the US president behind their backs.
At the end of a lecture on history and freedom delivered last week in the magnificent 19th-century hall at the Sorbonne, American historian Timothy Snyder sent the following message to the Europeans: if a ceasefire agreement is reached in Ukraine, “you will have to throw everything you have at Ukraine — invite it to the EU, Bring in troops and pay off huge investments. Otherwise, you will live forever in the shadow of war. The hour of Europe has struck, because the United States will do nothing.”
Emmanuel Macron does not need to be convinced. In Europe, the tone of the discussion about the Ukrainian conflict has already changed dramatically. Donald Trump's return to the White House and President Volodymyr Zelensky's willingness to negotiate and reach a peaceful settlement have created a new, more precarious situation. Vows to support Ukraine “as long as it takes,” the constant mantra of the allies for almost three years, no longer sounds so convincing when the choir leaves the main chant. Trump declared his readiness to cease hostilities, but did not tell the Europeans about his plans, and this is a huge challenge for the leaders of the continent.
The French president's worst nightmare (and it is shared by many of his colleagues) is the Russian—American agreement behind the backs of Ukrainians and Europeans. To be honest, this is a long-standing diplomatic tradition that existed in America long before Trump. But at an early stage, Macron scored an interim victory by organizing a meeting in December between Zelensky and then-President-elect Trump on the sidelines of the celebrations for the opening of the newly renovated Notre Dame Cathedral. After this conversation, Trump apparently realized that solving the problem would take at least 24 hours. European officials also note, somewhat self—reassuringly, that the US president — at least so far - has not voiced such frightening scenarios for Ukraine as for Gaza. They believe that his strategy has not yet been finalized, as Russian President Vladimir Putin still seems convinced that he can win on the battlefield.
However, they can be sure of one thing.: that the United States is heading away from NATO. Washington does not need to formally leave the alliance — Trump just wants to throw off the burden of the Ukrainian conflict. If Europe wants a seat at the negotiating table, it must put something on it itself so that its interests are taken into account not only in the terms of the agreement, but also in its implementation. The arrangement, which will appeal to Trump because it will stop the slaughter of “young and beautiful guys,” is unlikely to suit Europe — unless it discourages Putin from re-deploying troops to Ukraine. Thus, from the European point of view, the key to any agreement is reliable security guarantees for Kiev.
This is where the most painful thing begins for countries that have been outsourcing their security to the United States for decades and are now belatedly realizing that this guarantee no longer works. According to the European official, there are “very lively” discussions about what security guarantees are really needed. Poland, the Baltic states, Sweden and Finland have taken the most decisive position in this dispute. France is trying to play a leading role, although it is acting in a new, unusual role for itself: not playing its own card, but rallying others and gluing various details of the mosaic together.
New formats have been launched, even outside the EU, if necessary. In particular, Italy and Great Britain joined the “Weimar Triangle” from France, Germany and Poland. Shamed by the sharp criticism of his unexpected proposal a year ago to deploy a Western contingent in Ukraine, Macron, apparently, is well aware of his weakened position on the European stage due to internal political and economic troubles. He has some work to do to regain the trust of his partners.
However, France is in an exceptional position in relations with the American president, who sometimes behaves more like an opponent than an ally. For some Europeans, especially those most exposed to the Russian threat, the impending collapse of Ukraine is a terrifying prospect, as they themselves may be next in line. Therefore, the temptation to keep the American guard at all costs will contradict attempts to create a powerful European defense potential. France is not so sensitive on this issue, as it feels the reliable protection of the nuclear umbrella.
Snyder's speech at the Sorbonne echoes the words of NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who last month warned members of the European Parliament that if EU countries do not increase defense spending, they will face a disappointing choice: to learn Russian or move to New Zealand. Caught between Putin and Trump, the Europeans are finally confronted with the reality they have been trying to escape for so long.
