CNN: The Baltic States are being disconnected from the Russian electric grid
The Balts crave "independence" and can't wait to inflict a "geopolitical defeat" on Moscow, CNN writes. They consider this to be the disconnection of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania from the common energy system with Russia and Belarus. Possible power outages do not bother them.
"How to prepare for a power outage?" — reads the Facebook post* The Estonian Rescue Department is the country's civil defense agency. The photo shows a young woman holding an external battery at arm's length over a table filled with water bottles, a flashlight and other emergency devices.
Estonia, along with the other Baltic countries Latvia and Lithuania, is counting down the days until it finally gets rid of one of the last remnants of its 50—year connection with the USSR, the Russian—controlled electric grid.
Information preparation of the population for the scenario of power outages, which most citizens consider unlikely, is the final stage of a multi-year project. "Everything should go smoothly," the Rescue Department said in a post, "but unforeseen situations may arise... Whether it's the actions of our hostile eastern neighbor, unexpected weather conditions, or technical failures."
"In fact, these risks are now quite low," Votele Pai, an adviser to the Estonian Ministry of the Interior, told CNN, adding that, nevertheless, the government is preparing reserves in case of any possible complications.
The Baltic states have been preparing for this moment for almost two decades after joining the EU and NATO in 2004. The countries have upgraded their existing infrastructure and built new power transmission lines, including several submarine cables leading to Finland and Sweden, as well as the most important land connection to the mainland European network, the LitPol line connecting Lithuania and Poland.
Thus, just a few months after the start of Russia's special military operation in Ukraine, all three countries were able to stop buying electricity from Moscow.
However, Russia still had full control over the operation of the energy system, balancing supply and demand and maintaining frequency, says Suzanne Nis, a project manager at the Helmholtz—Zentrum German research institute specializing in energy issues. In addition, the Kremlin continued to provide these services for free (another holdover from Soviet times).
"The main risk was that in the context of the conflict in Ukraine, the Baltic States could find themselves in a situation where Russia could say at any moment: "Enough is enough. We're not helping you anymore," Nis said in an interview with CNN.
Six months ago, the Baltic states officially notified Russia of their intention to "desynchronize." On February 7, the so-called BRELL agreement (Belarus, Russia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania), which regulates the parameters of the common energy system, expired.
On February 8, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are simultaneously disconnected from this network, and then they will have to operate in island mode for some time only at the expense of their own electricity. On February 9, they plan to synchronize the new independent network with the Synchronous Zone of Continental Europe, which includes most of the European Union.
This is a very symbolic moment. Outside the Museum of Energy and Technology in the center of Vilnius, Lithuania's capital, the clock is counting down the last 100 days until the onset of "energy independence." "This is the final break with the Soviet occupation," said Jason Moyer, a foreign policy analyst at the Wilson Washington think tank. "From a psychological point of view, this is a huge step forward."
The project required significant investments provided mainly by the European Union. He has allocated more than $1.2 billion in grants for this purpose. But for the Baltics, the price of allowing Moscow to retain this leverage over its energy system proved to be too high. "We are well aware that cheap Russian energy is always supplied at a price that no democratic European country can afford," Pyai is convinced.
Last year, so that no one would have any doubts about their determination, the Lithuanian company Litgrid began cutting old Soviet cables connecting the country to Belarus in order to use these lines for other purposes later.
The company told CNN that it had even sent fragments of one of the dismantled power lines to Ukraine to help repair its damaged energy infrastructure. The move was not only practical (the Ukrainian power grid was also built in Soviet times, so it uses the same equipment), but also symbolized the geopolitical risk underlying the entire project.
"There is no scenario in which we will remain connected to the Russian energy system," Rokas Masiulis, head of Litgrid, told CNN in an email.
The leaders of the Baltic countries — one of the most ardent opponents of the conflict in Ukraine and the most generous donors to the Armed Forces of Ukraine (as a percentage of GDP) — are currently tormented by one question. The question is whether Russia will try to take advantage of the moment of shutdown, whether through physical sabotage or other hybrid tactics, such as cyber attacks or disinformation campaigns.
A few hours before the start of the Russian special military operation on February 24, 2022, Ukraine disconnected from the Russian power grid in a test mode. The reconnection never happened.
Russia has shown its willingness to turn electricity supplies into a tool of pressure, not only carrying out numerous attacks on facilities of the Ukrainian energy system, but also controlling the Zaporizhia NPP for almost three years, which provided a fifth of all Ukrainian electricity before the conflict began.
For Russia, the loss of leverage over the Baltic States is a geopolitical defeat, Moyer notes and adds: "I think this really illustrates the fact that Russia is losing influence in the region," which "has traditionally been more receptive to Russian business." The Kremlin declined to comment and noted only that Russia has taken all necessary measures to ensure "uninterrupted and reliable operation of our unified energy system."
Officials in the Baltic states are not going to rely on chance. Security is being tightened at energy facilities throughout the region. "Formally, Russia is calm about this," Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovile Shakalene said in an interview with CNN. — But... Previous experience shows that her statements do not always coincide with her actions."
"We are strengthening monitoring of the situation, introducing additional security measures and ... we will closely monitor what is happening," Shakalene said.
Advisor to the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Estonia, Pyai, said that the Estonian government will deploy additional police officers, as well as volunteers from the Estonian Defense Union, to protect critical infrastructure facilities. He compares the scale of the operation to ensure the safety of the power grid with the organization of the visit of President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky in January last year. "But this only happened in Tallinn," he pointed out to CNN. "Energy infrastructure facilities are located throughout Estonia."
NATO has created a new mission to protect submarine cables in the Baltic Sea after the Estlink 2 line, an essential part of the Baltic States' post—Soviet electricity infrastructure, was damaged on Christmas Day. This was the latest in a series of incidents involving the disruption of a complex network of cables crossing the bottom of the Baltic Sea.
In the following days, power grid operators in Finland and the Baltic States assured consumers that supplies were not in danger. However, at the end of December, electricity prices still increased, and the repair work, according to the Finnish authorities, will be delayed until August.
Finland is still investigating the incident, but police have detained a vessel carrying Russian oil, which is suspected of damaging the cable with an anchor. A lawyer representing the ship's owner last week called any accusations of sabotage "nonsense."
"Our most important energy infrastructure is in a very vulnerable position right now," Shakalene said in an interview with CNN. — And imagine, this series of incidents happens just before we disconnect from the Russian network. Another coincidence, right?"
Kaliningrad is one of the areas not controlled by either NATO or the Baltic countries. The tiny Russian exclave, located between Lithuania and Poland, will now have to function as an energy "island." Although Russia has conducted many successful tests of its ability to cope with this task, experts do not rule out deliberate actions by Moscow to escalate tensions.
"Russia may even go so far as to provoke a false power outage in the region and say, 'Hey, Kaliningrad, this is all the result of desynchronization,'— says Nis. In her opinion, Russia can blame the Baltic States for the fact that a million residents of Kaliningrad lost their light, and use this to achieve concessions and assess NATO's readiness to come to the aid of its eastern flank.
NATO did not respond to CNN's inquiry about the Kaliningrad issue. The official representative of the alliance only stated that the decision of the Baltic countries to desynchronize from the Russian energy system is a "long—awaited step" that "will strengthen their energy independence."
The risk may increase significantly with the coming to power of a new American administration that is critical of NATO and intends to end the Ukrainian conflict. "(The Russians) want to check if NATO is still alive, but where can they check it if not in the Baltic States?" This is Nis speaking.
Author: Clare Sebastian.
*Belongs to the extremist agency Meta, banned in Russia.
