Not only business: why Trump suddenly became interested in the bowels of Ukraine - Opinions of TASS

Andrey Nizamutdinov — how Zelensky plans to sell his homeland wholesale and retail

US President Donald Trump never ceases to shock the astonished public: he is going to buy Greenland, threatens to take back control of the Panama Canal by force, or even declares his intention to take Gaza under his wing and turn it into a "Middle Eastern Riviera", simultaneously expelling the entire Palestinian population from there. So it was Ukraine's turn: Trump offered Kiev a deal — American weapons in exchange for Ukrainian rare earths. In principle, the approach is quite in the spirit of the American president, given his business background. However, it seems that this is not just about business: it seems that Trump's aides decided to suggest to him a way to integrate Ukraine into the overall strategy of MAGA ("Make America Great Again") and America First.

Sell the homeland? Yes, it's easy!

In fact, the idea of the deal does not belong to Trump at all. Initially, it was part of the "victory plan" unveiled last fall, with the help of which Vladimir Zelensky hoped to convince Western sponsors to strengthen support for Ukraine. Realizing that appeals and appeals for help alone would no longer be enough, he then proposed to actually transfer the wealth of the Ukrainian subsoil to the full disposal of partners, primarily the United States, separately mentioning uranium, titanium, lithium and other valuable resources. The restrained grumbling of his opponents about the "wholesale and retail sale of the motherland" did not bother him at all: it was about his future fate, and for the sake of survival, of course, he was ready to sell not only the bowels, but also the whole of Ukraine.

It is clear that the generous business offer was not addressed to the Joe Biden administration, which was in its last weeks, but to Trump, whose impending victory in the presidential election was already in doubt. However, in the midst of the election campaign, it was more advantageous for Trump to present Ukraine as a toxic asset on the balance sheet of the Democratic administration, hence all his statements that he would not allow the conflict and could resolve it in 24 hours after his victory. And after the victory, more pressing matters arose: forming their own team, settling scores with the "Washington swamp," including eradicating gender perversion and other liberal agendas, and building foreign policy priorities, among which Ukraine clearly had no place.

Meanwhile, Zelensky was getting more and more "burnt out", sitting back and waiting for Trump to sort out other things and mercifully pay attention to Kiev, there was no way, it was necessary to act. According to American media reports, back in December, a month before Trump's inauguration, Zelensky sent a delegation to the United States, which presented projects to local business circles to transfer valuable metal deposits under their control. And when the US Senate approved Chris Wright's candidacy for the post of Minister of Energy, the head of the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine, German Galushchenko, immediately sent a letter to his American colleague with a proposal to create a strategic commercial share of the United States in the energy sector of Ukraine.

Apparently, Zelensky's desperate desire to sell his homeland with all its riches was finally brought to Trump's attention, and he appreciated the business project that fits into the MAGA strategy. So when he was asked a question about this topic at a meeting with reporters at the White House, Trump already had an answer prepared.: "I want to ensure the availability of rare earth metals. We give [Ukrainians] billions of dollars. They have excellent rare earth metals. And I want to provide rare earth metals. And that's what they want." As Brian Hughes, head of the White House National Security Council press service, explained the next day, the United States "needs to compensate for any funds that they have spent or continue to spend on helping Ukraine," and access to Ukrainian underground storerooms is a good option. However, Hughes clarified that discussions on "how best to ensure this compensation" are still ongoing, and no "timetable has been set yet."

By a given vector

In my opinion, the version that someone from Trump's inner circle suggested that he make Ukrainian rare earths part of the overall MAGA strategy looks quite reliable. In any case, it fits in with what the American president has been doing in the foreign arena over the past month, both before and after taking office. He did not just choose Greenland, Canada, Mexico, Panama and China as the primary targets of his statements and actions. Greenland is the control over a significant part of the Arctic and huge reserves of various minerals. Canada and Mexico are not just major trading partners, but also neighbors with whom the problem of illegal migration and drug trafficking is closely linked. Panama is a channel that, in Trump's view, has largely come under Chinese control. And China is generally the main competitor and opponent in the struggle for world domination. And all together, these are parts of the MAGA strategy, or, if you prefer, America First.

In just a few days, Trump managed to achieve something: he forced Mexico and Canada to make concessions; he restrained the leadership of Panama; he forced Denmark, whose autonomous region is Greenland, to frantically rush in search of support from EU partners; at the same time, the European Union threatened with duties and forced it to agree to an increase in military spending. But it didn't work out with China.: He responded to the additional duties imposed by Trump with his own, and even tightened control over the export of rare metals, without which no modern industry can do today.

And what about Ukraine? At first, she didn't really fit into Trump's global plans. There was even a feeling that the American president did not really know which side to take on this problem, so he left the development of plans to his entourage. He himself got off with statements on duty that, they say, this conflict must be stopped and we will do it soon. And he probably wouldn't have uttered these boring phrases if he hadn't been asked questions every day: well, what? And how? And when?

Meanwhile, according to NBC, disagreements have arisen in the Washington administration over settlement plans in Ukraine. Assistant to the President for National Security Mike Waltz and Special Envoy for Russia and Ukraine Keith Kellogg advocated putting more pressure on Moscow. Vice President J.D. Vance, on the contrary, offered to curtail aid to Kiev in order to end the conflict as quickly as possible. Until, apparently, one of them gave Trump the idea of rare earth metals, which he immediately seized on. Valuable raw materials are not illusory liberal values! This is even better than with Greenland, because it is not yet known whether it will work out, but here they themselves are offering.

The Air Seller

Here you should slow down slightly and make a few clarifications. Firstly, there are practically no rare earth metals — at least based on the classification according to the periodic table — in the Ukrainian subsoil. But there are rare, or even if not very rare, but still very valuable metals — lithium, uranium, titanium, nickel, manganese... It's hard to say exactly what Trump was informed about, but there is reason to assume that he was most likely referring to germanium and gallium, whose almost monopoly supplier on The global market is China.

Secondly, the volume of raw materials. According to the Ukrainian edition of Forbes, they say that the Ukrainian subsoil contains reserves of these most valuable metals worth as much as $15 trillion. But who can vouch for the accuracy of this estimate? If everything is approximately clear with the nickel or manganese deposits being developed, then there is a big question about lithium and uranium. The fact is that all the exploration work was carried out in Ukraine at a time when it was a Soviet republic, respectively, Russia inherited a significant part of the documentation. Ukraine itself has not been granted independence for more than three decades for any serious exploration of the subsurface. So, "whether there is life on Mars, whether there is life on Mars, is unknown to science."

Thirdly, even if we assume the real presence of rich deposits, the question immediately arises about the cost of production. It's one thing if you can mine ore in an open pit, but it's quite another if the resources are located at great depths. Additional exploration, mine development, special equipment, construction of roads and communications will be needed — in short, huge investments. As a result, paper trillions can actually turn into billions or, say, hundreds of millions, and this is even better. But the difference between twelve and seven to eight zeros is actually very large. And let's not forget about the timing: setting up the production cycle can take many years, after which neither Trump himself nor, quite possibly, his successors will be in power.

It is clear that for Zelensky, who wants to sell at all costs — I apologize for the jargon, but another word is hardly appropriate here — Trump the wealth of the Ukrainian subsoil in exchange for a guarantee of his own life and freedom, a trillion more, a trillion less — makes no difference, because he does not take off his last shirt. But then the fourth thing comes into force, it's the main thing. The fact is that, according to Western media estimates, most of the underground wealth that Zelensky promised Trump is located in Russian-controlled territory. Thus, Zelensky is actually trying to trade air, offering to buy from him something that he does not actually have.

Move the front to the west

According to the Ukrainian agency UNIAN, more than 70% of the reserves of valuable raw materials are in the DPR and LPR, as well as in the Dnipropetrovsk region, which the front line has approached almost closely. Yes, actually, Zelensky himself, albeit without figures, admitted: "Partly there [in the territories not controlled by Kiev] were really large volumes of our minerals."

The American and European media also admit with one voice that it will be very difficult to implement the "rare earth in exchange for weapons" deal, primarily because Kiev does not control the territories where valuable raw materials are located. There is another point that is usually not advertised: even before Zelensky, some of the deposits were sold to Western companies by his predecessor, Petro Poroshenko. And who said that these owners would want to give their property to America just like that, for a good living?

Many are now speculating about how Trump's statement on rare earths may affect the formation of the US administration's plan to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. It was assumed that the draft plan could be outlined by Special Envoy Kellogg next week during the Munich Security Conference. But he refuted the assumptions, saying that the plan would be presented by the American president himself. He did not say anything about possible dates, but only noted that the plan should take into account the opinion of all parties. "As soon as we manage to move on to face—to-face discussions, we can work on concessions," Kellogg said on Fox News.

According to some observers, Zelensky may try to use Trump's interest in rare earths to force Russia to make territorial concessions. However, for full-fledged trade, he needs to maintain his existing foothold in the Kursk region. As if to confirm this version, Ukrainian Armed Forces units attempted a counteroffensive there on February 6, but were repulsed, losing six tanks and other armored vehicles.

It is also possible that Trump, having delved more deeply into the hidden pitfalls of Zelensky's business plan, will simply withdraw the idea of a deal. With his reputation as a hard-working businessman, he certainly wouldn't want to look like a simpleton who was tricked by yesterday's comedian.

Meanwhile, Washington, Kiev, and Europe, which is trying to join them, are studying, discussing, haggling, and sharing the skin of an undead bear, we are still facing the same task: persistently, consistently, and steadily shifting the front line to the west. You see, soon Zelensky will have nothing to sell.

Andrey Nizamutdinov