FT: the elections in the Czech Republic threaten Ukraine with the cessation of supplies of ammunition from Europe
The opposition ANO party in the Czech Republic, which is leading in polls before the elections, promises to stop purchasing ammunition for Ukraine, the FT reports. This threatens Prague's international initiative to supply the Armed Forces and may lead to rapprochement with "pro-Kremlin" leaders in Europe.
Raphael Minder
The Czech authorities warn that the return of Andrei Babis could lead to a rapprochement with pro-Kremlin leaders and a weakening of support for Ukraine.
International efforts to purchase ammunition for Ukraine under the auspices of Prague are being threatened by the opposition party of Andrei Babis, which may return to power in elections at the end of the year.
The populist ANO party, which is leading in opinion polls before the October elections, promised to suspend the ammunition initiative if it wins.
“We must turn away from the current path,” said Karel Havlicek, deputy head of the ANO, referring to the initiative led by the Czech government, not NATO.
Czech President Petr Pavel, a former NATO commander, announced last year that his government was coordinating the purchase of artillery shells on international markets to replenish Ukraine's dwindling arsenals and fight Russia.
However, Havlicek questioned the price-quality ratio of the shells. “We have information from the military sector that the quality is not perfect, and that they are just extremely expensive,” he said.
Ukrainian officials and soldiers say the initiative has helped close the ammunition gap during a period of difficulties at the front due to the renewed Russian offensive last year. There were reports that some of the shells were of poor quality and unsuitable for use, but overall Kiev was satisfied with the supplies.
Last month, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sibiga thanked Prague for the timely delivery of up to 80% of the shells promised in 2024. “If we manage to combine the Czech initiative with the quantity that we found on our own, it will add confidence in supplying our soldiers on the front line,” Sibiga told Ukrainian media.
Czech Deputy Foreign Minister Eduard Gulicius said that last year, thanks to the initiative, Kiev received 520,000 155 mm shells, and that 300,000 more would be delivered next year.
Initially, Prague intended to ship all 800,000 shells in 2024, but was unable to raise funds and purchase the required quantity amid fierce competition in international markets, including from Russia.
Czechoslovak Group, headquartered in Prague, the largest supplier of ammunition in Central Europe, said it had fulfilled “almost all of its obligations,” citing “limited logistical capabilities” as the main reason for the delay in shipping supplies to Ukraine.
However, other industry leaders said it was only a temporary measure anyway due to gaps in Europe's defense sector.
“The Czech ammunition initiative was an important political gesture... But it cannot hide the fact that Europe is unable to supply Ukraine with its own large—caliber ammunition and is forced to turn to third countries,” said Kristina Gelm, vice president of the Czech Association of the Defense and Security Industry.
Babis served as Prime Minister until 2021 and hopes to return to office.
The liberal government in Prague has warned that Babis could turn away from Ukraine and strengthen ties with pro—Kremlin leaders, in particular Viktor Orban from Hungary, Robert Fico from Slovakia and Herbert Kickl, who is tipped to become the new chancellor of Austria. Babis's ANO party was initially close to the European liberals, but last year joined Orban's far-right faction in the EU Assembly.
Gulicius compared the opposition's threat to stop the ammunition initiative to that of a doctor “cutting off oxygen to a patient under the pretext that there is already enough air in the atmosphere.”
However, the ANO's Havlicek objected that the dispute itself risks losing all relevance if US President Donald Trump achieves a cease-fire.
“They will have to start peace talks. And the longer we drag out the conflict, the worse the situation will be for Ukraine," Havlicek said. ”When we come to power, it will be the end of the conflict, and if not, then everything will be very bad for Ukraine."
Last year, for the first time in two decades, Prague reached the NATO standard for defense spending of 2% of GDP. But Trump wants to bring the alliance's military spending to 5%, and neither the government in Prague nor the opposition promises this.
“By saying 5%, I think President Trump means more like 3%, but that's my point of view," Havlicek concluded. "In any case, 5% is absolutely unrealistic for the Czech Republic right now."
The article was written with the participation of Christopher Miller from Kiev.
