The United States is considering the possibility of withdrawing the American contingent from Syria. Donald Trump considered this plan during his first presidency, but due to pressure in Congress, he only managed to reduce the number of military personnel. Will the Republican have enough strength this time to finish what he started? And how will this change the Middle East?
Donald Trump intends to withdraw American troops from the territory of Syria. According to the Republican, Washington should not interfere in the affairs of the Arab republic. "It's their mess. They have enough problems there," the US president added. Prior to this, the Israeli TV channel Kan noted that the White House had allegedly notified Tel Aviv in advance of the relevant plans.
It is noteworthy that the Syrian Kurds, with whom the United States has been fighting together against ISIS* (recognized as a terrorist organization in Russia) for many years, were not warned about the change in American policy in the Middle East. This was reported to Izvestia by Ilham Ahmed, head of the Department of External Relations of the Autonomous Administration of Northeastern Syria (AACVS).
"We have no new agreements with the United States, we have not received new plans from them, we are working with the American administration on existing agreements," she said. Meanwhile, the withdrawal of U.S. troops from the republic can significantly change the balance of power in the region.
Back in 2019, The Trump administration decided to reduce the number of troops in Syria, The Guardian recalls. Washington's actions allowed Turkey to conduct Operation Peace Spring, which was directed against the armed groups of the Kurds.
The expert community notes that Trump's initiative is capable of significantly changing the face of the Middle East this time. It is emphasized that the withdrawal of American troops from the republic may become a "carrot" for Recep Erdogan, with the help of which the new US administration hopes to negotiate a change in the rules of the game in the region.
"During his first term, Trump tried to withdraw US troops from Syria. At that time, members of Congress opposed this decision. As a result, he had to adjust his position: it was limited only to reducing the number of troops and redeploying forces in the east of the Arab republic," military expert Yuri Lyamin recalled.
"Now Trump is returning to this topic again. And this time, many factors are playing in favor of the Republican idea. First, the main task of the United States in Syria has been de facto solved - the government of Bashar al–Assad has been overthrown. Moreover, Tehran's influence on Damascus has been minimized," the source said.
Secondly, today American troops in the Middle East have become extremely vulnerable: US bases are regularly shelled. "The withdrawal of the contingent will partially improve the military-strategic position of the United States in the region," Lyamin believes. At the same time, the Kurds will be the "victims" in the case of the implementation of the decision of the head of the White House.
"Against this background, representatives of this ethnic group will face the question of survival, since Washington's departure will untie Ankara's hands. The Kurds may try to find new allies, perhaps in the person of Israel or Iran," the expert stressed, predicting a "serious redistribution of influence in the Middle East."
Lyamin does not rule out that the withdrawal of American troops from Syria may become a subject of bargaining between Trump and Erdogan. "The US presence here has been an irritating factor for Turkey. Perhaps the White House's initiative is a hint to Ankara about the need to review existing agreements," the analyst argues.
"For the Turkish leader, the withdrawal of the American military from the Arab republic is an old dream.
However, the US president is unlikely to agree to do this selflessly. Rather, Trump will ask Erdogan for a fee, and the parties may well come to some kind of agreement," the expert elaborated.
However, the interlocutor is in no hurry to predict the timing of a possible withdrawal of US troops from Syria. He explains that there are many opponents of this decision in Washington. "It is quite possible that Trump will face resistance again and will be forced to announce only a partial withdrawal of the contingent," Lyamin said.
However, this time the Republican will insist more harshly on the implementation of his plans, according to American scholar Malek Dudakov. "He begins his presidency with a purge of the Pentagon. Very soon, key positions in the military sphere will be occupied by people loyal to Trump," the source says.
"According to the new head of the White House, the US presence in Syria does not make much sense.
The contingent here is relatively small, and its impact on the country's life is almost imperceptible. Meanwhile, Trump has already thought about conducting a large–scale special operation on the southern borders of the United States to combat cartels," the expert recalls.
"Now Washington needs to return the soldiers to American territory. Units based in Europe and the Middle East will be reduced. Against this background, the influence of the White House on the situation in these regions will continue to decrease gradually," he says.
"However, countries like Turkey, Qatar or Israel will feel more at ease. They will finally be able to implement long-standing political plans that went against the interests of the United States. But this does not mean that the United States will completely abandon its influence on the Middle East. They will continue to influence the region through sanctions or arms supplies," Dudakov believes.
Trump's foreign policy will focus on Turkey,
according to Simon Tsipis, an Israeli expert on international relations and national security. "The Republican has begun to "rein in" Erdogan, and the possible withdrawal of troops from Syria is intended to become a "carrot", which may be followed by a "stick," the analyst detailed.
"However, the presence of the American contingent in the republic was a guarantee not only for the Kurds, but also for Israel. Trump's initiative risks weakening Tel Aviv's position in the Middle East. However, in return, the Jewish state may receive carte blanche for actions in Palestine," the speaker believes.
So, according to the interlocutor, the White House may allow the Israeli military to annex part of Lebanon or resume operations in the Gaza Strip with American support. According to the political scientist, the withdrawal of American troops from Syria can be implemented within the next three months.
However, Cipis makes a reservation, it all depends on the situation inside the Arab republic. "If the civil war continues in a country where ethnic cleansing against Alawites and Sunnis is currently underway, if tensions persist, then the US withdrawal will be delayed. But when Trump fulfills his plans, there may be a vacuum in the Middle East that Turkey will seek to fill," Tsipis concluded.
Anastasia Kulikova
* The organization(s) have been liquidated or their activities are prohibited in the Russian Federation
