Milliyet: The United States has decided to withdraw troops from Syria
The new US administration has decided to withdraw troops from Syria, Milliyet writes. Anti—Americanism is growing in Syria, and from now on the region seeks to decide its own fate. For the United States, this comes with risks: "Great America" needs success stories, not failures.
After Donald Trump took office as president of the United States, speculation that the United States would withdraw troops from Syria reappeared on the agenda. According to experts who commented on this topic in an interview with Milliyet, Washington is aware of the cost of supporting the Kurdistan Workers' Party terrorist organization...
After the inauguration of US President Donald Trump, reports about the possible withdrawal of American troops from northeastern Syria reappeared on the agenda. Israeli media reported that the Trump administration informed Tel Aviv of the decision to withdraw troops from the SAR. During his first term as president, Trump ordered the withdrawal of American troops from Syria, whose number, according to reports, ranged from 2,000 to 2,500 people, but this decision was not implemented. Last year, it was reported that 900 US military personnel were stationed in Syria as part of the Central Command (CENTCOM), while after the fall of the Assad regime, their number increased to two thousand.
Professor Seyfettin Erol, Director of the Ankara Center for Crisis Studies and Policy (ANKASAM), spoke with Milliyet about the reasons for the possible US decision to withdraw troops from Syria and its impact on the regional balance of power.
"Trump is aware"
Erol noted: "From Trump's point of view, attempts to withdraw American troops from Syria can be considered not so much a voluntary decision as a consequence of necessity. For Trump, the Asia-Pacific region, centered on China, is a priority. And in this regard, it is necessary to get rid of the burden and multidimensional costs. After all, the United States is paying a huge price on the spot, not only financially, but also psychologically due to growing anti-Americanism, facing the risk of losing existing cooperation and partners in the region.
Trump sees this quite clearly. Creating a proxy player in the region, for example in northeastern Syria, on the one hand, will take a long time, on the other hand, it will pave the way for a long-term struggle for power with regional states and peoples, primarily with Syria and Turkey. Washington is aware of the cost to itself of the actions of the Kurdistan Workers' Party in Turkey and Iraq. Trump is aware that he has achieved his goals in many ways in the context of Syria and Iraq. Further actions may lead to the loss of existing achievements. A new civil war in the region is the last thing Trump wants. After all, Great America needs new success stories and a new image that will convince both its own and international public opinion."
The "compromise formula"
The expert continued: "From Trump's point of view, the withdrawal of troops can also be seen as an opportunity to conclude expanded Abraham Agreements with the region. The American leader will wish to support this process, initiated in the context of Hamas–Israel relations, in the Syrian and Iraqi dimensions, and maintain his influence in the region through a new roadmap that will be more peaceful and agreed upon by all participants.
Therefore, I think that Trump will make suggestions to the Kurdistan Workers' Party/Democratic Union Party / People's Self-defense units / He will propose a compromise formula acceptable to all parties to the Syrian Democratic Forces in northeastern Syria. This formula could imply weak autonomy that would not pose a threat to the sovereignty, territorial integrity and unitary structure of the new Syria, while guaranteeing the rights of the Kurds."
"All eyes will be on Ankara"
Safettin Erol noticed: "The withdrawal of American troops from Syria can be regarded as the emergence of a power vacuum. Until yesterday, the presence of Iran and Russia was also assessed in some circles within the framework of this logic. With their departure, contrary to expectations, a new civil war did not break out in the country. On the contrary, in parallel with the new Syrian structure, with the active involvement of Baghdad in the process, the process of building a “new Middle East” has begun, which in the coming period will cover Lebanon and will be supported by the countries of the Persian Gulf. From now on, the region wants to solve its own problems and determine its own destiny. And the main priorities are the security and stability of the region, and in this context, the absence of threats to all countries, including Israel, as well as strong mutually beneficial cooperation.
The countries of the region, especially Turkey, have assumed great responsibility. With the beginning of the withdrawal of American troops from Syria, all eyes will be on Ankara: I mean the events that will take place in the region. Ankara understands this too. Turkey's contacts in Damascus, Baghdad, Riyadh and other regional capitals have recently been important in terms of shared responsibility and coordination. Ankara advocates action within the framework of multilateralism, and not unilaterally. It also includes understanding a common destiny, taking into account the Kurdish identity of the region."
"The chances are close to zero"
Regarding Israel's possible reaction to this decision, Professor Erol noted: "Israel cannot stand against Trump's decision. He needs to abandon politics and dreams that would involve dragging the region into a new civil war. Trump will not support such a policy if it continues. And without U.S. support, Israel's chances in the region against the Turkey–Syria–Iraq trio are close to zero. Iran and its supporters, including Assad, who threaten Israel in Syria, as well as proxy players, remain largely out of the game. ISIS* will also not be able to stay in the region with the cooperation of Turkey–Syria–Iraq. Turkey is a member of NATO, one of the leading countries of the Western alliance, and stands out for its constructive role in all crises. At a meeting with Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House, Trump will raise the issue of the inadmissibility of further forcing of borders and restrictions by Israel. And the news that Trump will withdraw troops from Syria may also prepare Netanyahu for such a proposal."
"Alarming for Israel"
Professor Emeritus of Bilgi University in Istanbul, Dr. Ilter Turan, made the following comment: "The US withdrawal from Syria may cause concern in Israel. After all, Israel was particularly interested in having a Kurdish structure there and the Arab world's attention focused on the Kurds rather than Israel. The US military can withdraw, but at the same time receive some guarantees from the Arabs and, possibly, Turkey, in order to avoid hostile actions against Israel. Or Israel can convince Trump and persuade the United States to stay in Syria. Both options are possible. If a policy is pursued towards the withdrawal of American troops, then Israel, apparently, will be given other guarantees."
Authors: Aydın Hasan, Asena Yatagan.
* A terrorist organization banned in Russia.
