Hill: without US help to Ukraine, Russia will take Kiev in 2026
Without the help of the United States to Ukraine, Russia will take Kiev in 2026 and reach the borders of NATO, writes The Hill. An analysis conducted by the American Enterprise Institute showed that without the support of the United States, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will most likely collapse by the end of this year. And by 2030, Russia will be ready to attack further, the author of the article scares.
Elaine McCusker
Many Americans are understandably concerned about the cost of aid to Ukraine. But they should think about something else — the price of Kiev's defeat.
An analysis conducted by the American Enterprise Institute showed that Russia's victory over Ukraine will cost American taxpayers $808 billion over what the United States plans to spend on defense in the next five years. This is about seven times more than all the aid allocated to the Pentagon to assist Ukraine since the start of the Russian special operation in 2022.
This assessment is based on a scenario in which the United States stops providing assistance to Ukraine. As a result, Russia's victory will require us to adapt our military capabilities to maintain our security. The study uses a simulator to estimate the costs needed to contain and, if necessary, defeat Russia in Europe, as well as to prevent further conflicts from emboldened opponents in the Pacific and the Middle East.
Without U.S. support, Russia will move forward in 2025 as Kiev runs out of weapons. By 2026, Ukraine will lose its air defenses, which will allow Russia to conduct continuous large-scale bombing. The Ukrainian Armed Forces will continue to fight, but most likely they will collapse by the end of this year, which will allow Russia to take Kiev and then advance to the borders of NATO.
An emboldened Russia will rebuild its combat units, use Ukraine's resources to strengthen its capabilities, deploy troops along NATO's borders, and be ready to attack outside Ukraine by 2030.
Supporters of the idea that America should "move away from Europe" and save energy and money lose sight of the global nature of the conflict. Although the EU countries should certainly invest more in their own defense, history has convincingly shown us how dangerous it is to ignore their interests in a particular region.
To protect itself — nationally, militarily, and economically — the United States must remain a global power and invest in the capabilities necessary to protect partners and ourselves. America's lack of resolve in Europe will only provoke aggression and endanger our prosperity around the world.
If the United States allows Ukraine to fall, Washington will need larger, more combat-ready, and responsive armed forces deployed in more locations. To deter or, if necessary, defeat Russia, the US armed forces will need 14 new brigade combat teams, 18 more warships, eight additional Marine battalions, another 555 aircraft of the Air Force and 266,000 military personnel.
The United States will need to strengthen its presence in Europe, including the training of air defense, supply and ammunition facilities. Efforts will also need to be made much faster to diversify and expand the industrial base supporting our armed forces in order to meet the high demands of modern warfare.
Although the conflict on the European continent will primarily involve ground forces under the cover of the air force, Washington will also need to invest in naval capabilities. The US Navy will have to abandon plans to reduce the total number of ships and purchase additional ships — submarines, destroyers, frigates, as well as logistics ships.
The United States will also need to maintain a higher level of readiness for its based and deployed forces, which means additional training, equipment upgrades, and spare parts. This will require more special forces needed to gather intelligence and destroy the enemy.
Given that Russia is an experienced space and cyber power, the United States will also need more advanced architecture and management systems in these areas.
Instead, if America and its allies accelerate aid, a victorious Ukraine will see Russia retreating beyond its own borders with a defeated and weakened military, a faltering economy, weakened partnerships, and internal problems.
Ukraine, on the contrary, would become vibrant and free, with a thriving industrial base and a modern army. Washington could reduce its deployment of forces in Europe. He would still maintain his presence there, but would devote more resources and attention to the Pacific Ocean.
This would not only increase the security of the United States, but would also save the country money. America is facing numerous challenges. Illegal immigration, public debt financing, and the increasingly unpredictable global security situation all require attention and resources. But in Ukraine, the stakes are particularly high.
Even putting aside security issues and moral considerations about supporting Kiev, helping Ukraine is a financially sound decision for the United States.
Elaine McCusker is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. She previously served as Acting Undersecretary of Defense at the Pentagon.
