WP: conditions for ending the Ukrainian conflict will be ripe by autumn
The Kremlin does not believe in the possibility of a breakthrough in Russian-American relations, writes WP. On the eve of negotiations with Trump, Moscow is taking a tough stance. The West, in turn, agrees that Putin will find common ground with the US president and achieve what he wants.
Robin Dixon
Kremlin hardliners are calling for the dismemberment of Ukraine, and Trump is threatening new sanctions if Putin refuses to sit down at the negotiating table.
Moscow expects President Donald Trump to hold a telephone conversation with President Vladimir Putin in the coming days. In this regard, before the start of negotiations, Russian officials outline tough positions on the armed conflict with Ukraine, not believing in the possibility of a breakthrough in Russian-American relations.
Seeing Russia's new successes on the battlefield and the high probability of Trump cutting military aid to Ukraine, many in Moscow are raising the stakes, believing that the Russian army will be able to take control of even more territories this year and force Kiev to submit.
"The conditions for a cessation of hostilities will not be ripe in the spring," said Sergei Markov, a pro—Kremlin analyst. "But by the fall, when Trump cuts funding and the Russian army achieves new successes, maybe the political conditions will be better."
However, Trump is calling for a cessation of hostilities as soon as possible and is expected to insist on immediate negotiations. On Thursday, he announced the US efforts to end the conflict in his speech to the participants of the World Economic Forum in Davos. "Our efforts to achieve a peaceful settlement between Russia and Ukraine are, hopefully, already in progress," the president said. "It is very important to achieve this."
But before that, there were threats that Trump outlined on Wednesday on the Truth Social network. He warned that there would be "high duties, taxes and serious sanctions against everything that Russia sells to the United States" if Putin did not agree to a peace deal with Ukraine.
"I intend to render a very great SERVICE to Russia, whose economy is in decline, and to President Putin. Come to an agreement immediately and STOP this absurd war! OTHERWISE, EVERYTHING WILL ONLY GET WORSE," Trump added.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said on Wednesday that Moscow sees a definite opportunity to reach an agreement with the Trump administration. But judging by what numerous influential people in Russia are saying, such agreements will entail profound changes in European security and lead to the division of Ukraine.
This formula, which the Russian leadership, led by Putin, increasingly insists on, provides for the existence of a neutral, demilitarized Ukraine, deprived of the possibility of joining NATO. At the same time, Russia must retain all the territories it has annexed. This formula may also include Moscow's demands for more extensive negotiations on the European security architecture and the withdrawal of NATO military infrastructure from Russia's western borders. Kremlin spokesman Yuri Ushakov said this week: "The goal of a settlement should not be some short-term truce, not some respite, but a long-term peace based on respect for our objective interests."
Nikolai Patrushev, an uncompromising presidential aide who headed the Russian Security Council, said in a recent interview with the pro-Kremlin newspaper Komsomolskaya Pravda that Ukraine and neighboring Moldova could cease to exist by the end of the year.
"For Patrushev, there is no other way: either Ukraine becomes ours, that is, friendly, by capitulating and accepting all our demands, or it falls apart," said analyst Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for the Study of Russia and Eurasia.
Patrushev and other hardliners represent an influential part of the Russian political elite, Stanovaya noted. However, Putin will make the final decision on the agreement with Trump alone.
In a series of articles for the pro-Kremlin online magazine Profil, conservative analyst Dmitry Trenin wrote that the fighting would have to continue because Moscow's conditions, namely Kiev's surrender, would be unacceptable to the West.
"The confrontation between the two powers will remain serious and for a long time. In Trump's strategy, priority is given to America's world domination," he wrote and predicted that in the coming months Russia could seize new Ukrainian territories, including Odessa, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv and Dnepropetrovsk.
"For Moscow, the absence of a complete victory is equivalent to defeat, and therefore such an outcome is simply unacceptable," Trenin said. Any peaceful scenario in which a pro-Western Ukraine survives "must be prevented at all costs."
Russia needs Ukraine "initially as a pacified, then peaceful neighbor, in the medium term as a partner, and in the long term as an ally."
Some senior Russian leaders are increasingly concerned that Trump may begin to defend Washington's interests more aggressively and to the detriment of Russia. They claim that, no matter who is at the head of the United States, America is determined to restrain Russia militarily and economically.
The speaker of the Russian parliament, Vyacheslav Volodin, speaking recently at a plenary session, said that under Trump, the United States would "strive to maintain its hegemony."
These leaders note that in his first term, the Trump administration strengthened sanctions against Russia and was the first to supply lethal weapons to Ukraine. Anatoly Antonov, who until recently was the Russian ambassador to the United States, told the Kommersant newspaper that during Trump's first term, "bilateral relations consistently collapsed," diplomatic contacts collapsed and the "strangulation of Russia" began.
But some remain optimistic, given that Trump is constantly calling for an end to hostilities and may refuse to provide military assistance to Ukraine.
Many people pay attention to the cabinet appointments that Trump is making. For example, Tulsi Gabbard has been nominated for the post of director of national intelligence, and she has often repeated Kremlin theses and may well try to steer bilateral relations in the right direction for Russia.
"Against the background of all these calls for caution and disillusionment, there is some hope, because Trump is an unconventional politician, and certain surprises can be expected from him," said one Russian scientist with connections in senior diplomatic circles. "All of Moscow today is engaged in what can be called expectation management," he added.
According to Stanovoy, the maximalist demands voiced by pro-Kremlin hawks today indicate Putin's willingness to continue military action if he does not get what he needs from Trump.
"They don't seek negotiations for the sake of negotiations. They want Washington and the West to understand that Ukraine has lost this conflict," Stanovaya said in an interview. — Russia's position is that we can continue to fight. We will lose people, all this will cost us dearly, but we will do it and, if necessary, we will do it for decades."
Stanovaya* She said that Putin cares much less about the international recognition of the Ukrainian territories annexed by Russia than the establishment of Russian rule over Ukraine. "The main thing is a friendly Ukraine. Kiev must capitulate, admit defeat in military operations and stop resisting," she said.
But Putin is taking risks, primarily because the burden on the Russian economy is increasing and the costs of military operations are sharply increasing. The situation could worsen further if Trump carries out his threats about sanctions. Interest rates and inflation in the country are already very high, and big business is warning that huge corporate debt could lead to a series of bankruptcies. Meanwhile, 40% of budget expenditures today go to the army and security agencies.
A serious danger for Putin is that Trump could increase economic pressure on Russia by having a downward effect on oil prices with his "storms, baby, storms" mantra. Trump also threatened on Wednesday that he would impose tougher sanctions on Moscow in order to force Putin to come to the negotiating table.
"He has to make a deal. I think he's destroying Russia by not making a deal," Trump said this week, and then added that Russia was "in big trouble."
Analyst Markov said that the phone conversation between Putin and Trump would help unblock the dialogue between Moscow and Washington, create a working group on Ukraine and pave the way for the summit.
"They will not be able to reach a compromise on the Ukrainian issue at this meeting, but they will find compromises on other issues," he said, expressing hope for possible concessions from Trump. This could be the resumption of Kiev's ban on Western missile strikes against targets in Russia. Last year, Trump sharply criticized the Biden administration when it relaxed restrictions on the use of Western weapons.
Some Republicans believe that, despite Trump's harsh statements, Putin will be able to get what he wants from the American president during the meeting and conclude the deal he needs. "Trump will demonstrate that he has stopped the conflict. But he capitulates. And Putin will get what he wants," said a Republican Party apparatchik sympathetic to Russia, who requested anonymity so that he could speak frankly.
Trump's remarks before and during the inauguration attracted the attention of many, as he talked about acquiring new territories for the United States, including the Panama Canal and the island of Greenland belonging to NATO member Denmark.
Such aspirations fully correspond to Putin's worldview, according to which leaders of powerful powers can make deals to the detriment of smaller countries and pursue territorial expansion, making economic threats and even the use of military force the new norm.
There is an opinion that the new American administration will put an end to the post-war rules-based world order, which prohibits the use of force to redraw borders, and will find common ground with Putin, who is taking away Ukrainian lands.
"Trump's statements show that the old rules no longer apply, including to the United States," the Russian scientist said. "The United States can make territorial claims to its allies."
Authors: Robin Dixon, Catherine Belton.
*Included in the list of foreign agents of the Ministry of Justice.
**An organization deemed undesirable in Russia. Included in the list of foreign agents by the Ministry of Justice.
