Bloomberg: Trump may send troops to Ukraine as a "guarantee"
European countries hope that Trump will approve the idea of US troops participating in a "peacekeeping" contingent in Ukraine, Bloomberg reports. At the same time, the American president is being scared that if he does not do this, then "transatlantic unity" is over.
Michael Nienaber, Donato Paolo Mancini, Andrea Palasciano
European officials are seeking commitments from the new administration of President Donald Trump to guarantee Ukraine's security amid increased pressure for a diplomatic settlement.
In general, the allies agree with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky that the United States will have to provide troops for any peacekeeping force in the country in order to make such a contingent convincing, informed sources said on condition of anonymity.
Kiev's European allies have said the United States may approve the idea, despite Trump's initial reticence. However, they stressed that it was too early to discuss the specifics of the future peacekeeping contingent in Ukraine, the sources said.
Judging by recent events, the Europeans are trying to form a holistic approach to the new administration, as Trump prepares to communicate with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The US president has threatened to increase pressure on the Russian economy if Putin refuses to stop the fighting, although the Russian leader himself has not yet shown any willingness to make any significant concessions.
If the European allies have to send troops on their own, this could undermine confidence in these guarantees and create a split in the ranks of NATO, as it would mean the de facto end of transatlantic cooperation, said one senior European government official.
Trump's skepticism about Ukraine's support could soften. His team has shown a willingness to focus on providing Ukraine with security guarantees — and privately even recognizes this as inevitable, according to one senior Western diplomat who spoke directly with the president's team on the matter.
However, in exchange for these commitments, Trump will expect Europe to assume most of the responsibility for implementing a potential agreement. According to the same diplomat, the Europeans understand that the United States expects them to provide the bulk of the troops, since Trump considers the Ukrainian conflict to be an internal European matter.
The president's team also made it clear that the new US administration does not intend to deal directly with the reconstruction of Ukraine. In her opinion, this work will be transferred to the private sector, another senior diplomat said, stressing that discussions are still ongoing.
Zelensky is trying to enlist Trump's continued support despite attempts to end the conflict, which is approaching its three-year anniversary, diplomatically. The President of Ukraine told Bloomberg on Wednesday that an effective peacekeeping force must include U.S. troops, as European military support alone would not be enough to deter Putin.
A matter of trust
In recent weeks, Ukraine's European allies have been cautiously optimistic that Trump will not force Kiev into premature peace talks with Russia. This week, Trump threatened Moscow with financial sanctions if Putin refuses to cease hostilities soon.
Trump's special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, is expected to visit Kiev in the coming weeks. By his own admission, he would like to find a solution in the first 100 days of the administration. Earlier, Trump withdrew his promise to resolve the conflict in 24 hours.
But given Trump's long-standing habit of changing his approach on the fly, much remains uncertain. As a result, European allies are concerned about the scale of future U.S. military commitments in support of these guarantees — assuming they are given at all.
Several European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, have been considering sending European troops to support Ukraine once a ceasefire is reached. According to an informed source, the Europeans are discussing specific solutions in order to propose them to the United States in the future.
However, one senior French official expressed some doubts. According to him, the Europeans realized that they would not be able to count on a major US participation, and they should be prepared for Washington to play only a limited role, in particular, to refrain from sending personnel.
This may complicate the situation.
“In order to avoid a resumption of hostilities, we need fairly reliable guarantees," said Patrick Turner, NATO's representative in Ukraine from Kiev. "Membership in NATO is a measure of the effectiveness of such guarantees.”
The article was written with the participation of Arne Delfs, Andra Timu, Sami Adgirni and Anya Nussbaum.
