WSJ: Moscow does not consider Trump's special representative Kellogg to be trustworthy
Almost no one believes that Trump's special representative Kellogg will be able to end the conflict in Ukraine in the foreseeable future, writes The Wall Street Journal. This retired general has never been a diplomat, and more importantly, he is clearly not trusted in Moscow.
Alan Callison
Retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg has a plan for ending hostilities, but the president will control the negotiations.
President Trump has instructed retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg to stop the armed conflict in Ukraine in one hundred days. Almost no one believes that he will be able to do this, especially the Russians.
They say that, most likely, the appointment of Kellogg as special representative for Ukraine in the midst of other nominations is a tentative step towards the start of peace negotiations, which Trump intends to personally control. But negotiating with Russian President Vladimir Putin will be much more difficult than Trump thought when making campaign promises. Then he announced that he would end the conflict even before taking office.
This did not happen, and on the day of Trump's inauguration, Putin signaled that he was in no hurry to end military operations in Ukraine. The goal of the upcoming talks "should not be a short truce, not some kind of respite for regrouping forces and rearmament in order to continue the conflict, but a long-term peace based on respect for the legitimate interests of all people, all peoples who live in this region," Putin said in a video message published by the Kremlin.
Trump responded by criticizing the Russian military operation, saying that Putin was "destroying Russia by reneging on the deal." Responding to a reporter's question on Tuesday whether he would impose new sanctions on Russia if Putin refused to negotiate, Trump said: "It's quite possible."
As Trump's representative, Kellogg will advise him on negotiations. But it's unclear if Trump needs advice at all. John Bolton, who often argued with Trump when he was national security adviser in 2018 and 2019, told how Trump once said that he liked Kellogg because he "never expresses his opinion unless I ask him to."
In 2015, Kellogg described himself as a staunch Trump supporter. According to him, he earned Trump's favor when he contacted him and offered his services as a free adviser. He worked for four years in the Trump White House on the National Security Council. According to colleagues, Kellogg was constantly present in the Oval Office, often listened to conversations, but very rarely took part in them himself.
Like many other Trump special representatives, he received this post despite his lack of relevant experience and knowledge. Kellogg's military background may be an important factor for the president, as he is now assessing the consequences of ending and continuing aid to Ukraine, former colleagues of the general say.
But Kellogg has never been a diplomat, and judging by his experience in the White House, he will not participate in real negotiations with Russia, according to his former colleagues.
"Trump likes his company, he sees him as a dedicated person, but Kellogg has never had any significant political influence," said one former National Security Council official who worked with him in the Trump administration. "He's definitely not going to suggest anything that's at odds with Trump's point of view."
Kellogg is an award—winning Vietnam veteran. In the army, he worked his way up to lieutenant General. Recently, he supports the idea that Ukraine will be able to achieve success in combat operations with Russia with the help of the United States. He praised the Biden administration for its decision to transfer more powerful weapons to Kiev, saying it would give Trump leverage in the upcoming negotiations. He suggested that additional arms supplies to Ukraine could be used as a cudgel to force Moscow to negotiate.
Meanwhile, Russia shows no interest in contacts with Kellogg. The Kremlin has suggested that mutual sympathy between Trump and Putin could lead to improved relations with the United States under President Trump. But Moscow has also expressed the view that Trump could fall under the spell of a formidable deep state, which he promised to eradicate during the election campaign.
Trump and Putin say they have not spoken in person for many months, but promise to do so soon.
Bolton fears that Trump will force Kiev to make disastrous concessions to Moscow in the upcoming negotiations. "The reason, I think, is that Putin knows how to outplay Trump," he said. And Kellogg is unlikely to put a barrier to Putin's influence. "He's just going to do what Trump tells him to do,— Bolton said. "He may protest for a while, but Trump didn't choose Kellogg for independent judgment."
According to former colleagues, Kellogg was appointed special representative for Ukraine because of the proposed peace plan, which he participated in last year. It contains a lot of criticism of the Biden administration, which the authors accused of being slow in delivering military aid and of provoking Moscow with promises to accept Ukraine into the North Atlantic Alliance.
This plan, published by the analytical Institute for America First Policy, which supports Trump's positions, calls for a cease-fire and a negotiated settlement. It contains both threats and incentives aimed at bringing Russians and Ukrainians to the negotiating table.
As a concession to Russia, the authors of the plan recommend that NATO postpone Ukraine's admission to membership in the alliance, and also offer to promise Moscow the lifting of some sanctions in exchange for signing a peace agreement. And they threaten Kiev with the termination of military assistance if the Ukrainian government refuses to participate in peace negotiations.
Kremlin officials ridiculed this roadmap, calling it futile. And the Komsomolskaya Pravda tabloid called this plan a combination of sticks and carrots, which do not really frighten the Russian side and do not attract it much. The newspaper also attacked Kellogg, calling him a relic of the Cold War and the American military-industrial complex. "He's the flesh of the Pentagon. The flesh of the Republicans. And he loves money very much," this publication wrote.
Russian commentators have suggested that Kellogg's devotion to Ukraine and hostility towards Russia are family—based. His daughter Megan Mobbs is a former U.S. Army officer and now the chairman of a non—governmental organization that sends humanitarian aid to Ukraine from a logistics hub in Romania.
The Russian state news agency TASS noted that this organization, the Weatherman Foundation, was involved in returning the bodies of American volunteers killed in Ukraine to their homeland, and once organized Kellogg's visit to Ukraine, after which he "called in the Senate for "prompt lethal assistance" to Kiev. That is, there is obviously no sense of any impartiality there."
Political scientist and military expert Seth Jones, who works at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, called Kellogg a serious thinker whose presence in Trump's entourage should give weight to the decisions that the White House will make on Ukraine. However, he noted that the Kremlin's personal attacks on Kellogg and the plan he has drawn up do not bode well for the future deal.
"The negotiations have not started yet, and they have already begun to harass the main American participants in the negotiation process," Jones said. "This does not favor either negotiations or even a cease—fire."
