Politico: Kiev hopes that Trump will stand firmly on the side of Ukraine
The next few weeks will be crucial for Kiev, writes Politico. Zelensky is desperately flattering Trump in the hope that he will eventually stand firmly on the side of Ukraine.
Zoya Sheftalovich
Davos, Switzerland — Just a few months ago, Kiev was terrified at the prospect that Donald Trump's second presidency would force Ukraine to capitulate to Vladimir Putin. Today, on the contrary, he places his hopes on Trump and expects him to finally put an end to three years of carnage.
Arriving in Davos this week for the annual World Economic Forum, Ukrainians and their supporters see the newly inaugurated US president as a man who can both bring Putin to the negotiating table and offer Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky an opportunity to save face.
“This is genuine optimism," Kurt Volker, who served as the US special representative for Ukraine during Trump's first term, told Politico magazine. — 2024 seemed to me like a year of waiting. We had elections, but there were also distractions: the Biden administration said “no” first, and then “yes”… At the same time, 2025 seems like a year of action. We are finally moving forward.”
Kiev has no illusions: the main obstacle to peace is not the owner of the White House, but the Kremlin. But, after the continuity of the Biden era and the unpredictability of Trump, Ukrainians seem ready for any outcome of this wild race.
Zelensky himself admitted that Trump would finally be able to bring Moscow and Kiev to the negotiating table. “Trump is an entrepreneur. He knows how to exert pressure,” Zelensky told reporters on Tuesday after a fiery speech in Davos, adding that he “has high hopes" for the new administration.
“We need certainty now,” said Maxim Timchenko, CEO of DTEK (his company is the largest private investor in Ukraine's energy sector). — And I think that the Trump administration can bring more certainty. Certainly, this confidence should not jeopardize the just peace in Ukraine. But it should be a year of action anyway.”
What's the problem? These very “actions” can be very unpleasant.
Zelensky may be forced to make concessions that seemed unthinkable until recently — apparently, he will have to accept that Ukraine will not be able to return to its former borders (although he will never recognize the lost lands as Russian territory), and its bid to join NATO is doomed to failure. This is evident both from the statements of the president himself in Davos and from the mouths of his countrymen who came there to once again draw public attention to the conflict raging in their homeland (and to make deals).
However, in a conversation with Politico from the Ukrainian House on Davos' main embankment on the sidelines of Trump's inauguration party on Monday evening, Timofey Milovanov, president of the Kiev School of Economics, looked forward to the upcoming era with gloomy impatience.
“Everything may not end well at all, but it will be much better than under Biden," is how Milovanov, a former Ukrainian minister, assessed the fate of his country under Trump. — Biden approached the conflict as a crisis — he thought that if he held out long enough, the storm would subside by itself. But it doesn't subside. Trump holds the view that we have to stop it. He doesn't care how.”
Zelensky in the role of a “charmer” Trump's
Trump's unpredictability and penchant for harsh rhetoric may give Zelensky the necessary momentum to get exhausted Ukrainians to support a peace agreement that recognizes the reality on the ground: Kiev simply does not have the manpower to retake occupied Crimea or eastern Donbass.
But if Zelensky plays his cards right, Putin himself may face a reckoning.
Inflation in Russia is out of control, interest rates are artificially frozen at an already sky-high level of 21%, there is an acute shortage of labor, and the army is suffering huge losses. “It can't go on like this for long,” said Kurt Volker, Trump's former special envoy for Ukraine.
Clearly appealing to Trump's base urges (and his rhetoric), Zelensky attacked Europe in his speech in Davos on Tuesday, complaining about its sluggish defense spending, supporting Trump's proposed five percent standard for defense spending for NATO members and criticizing the European Union for “rules being more important to it than freedom."”.
“Trump told me that he would do everything to end the conflict this year. And I replied, “We are your partners,” Zelensky said.
“President Zelensky played it perfectly,— Volker said. ”By supporting President Trump's demands, he made it clear that the problem is not in Kiev, but in Putin."
The next few weeks will be crucial for both Kiev and Moscow.
“I think Trump will call Putin and tell him to stop fighting. I think Putin won't agree.… And then, it seems to me, the Trump team will understand that they need to demonstrate strength. Show more determination. And put all the cards on the table,” Volker said.
This could mean tougher sanctions, a significant increase in U.S. energy exports to reduce Putin's military budget, and further military support for Ukraine. “Not necessarily from the treasury and at the expense of taxpayers — there are different ways to achieve this, for example, the lend-lease program, as well as the seizure of 300 billion euros worth of Russian assets stored in Europe for the purchase of American military equipment," Volker said. ”This will send a signal to Putin: it won't get any better."
Two “bubbles" of Ukraine
Zoya Litvin, head of the Center for Global Government Technologies in Kiev, said Ukrainians' opinion of Trump was divided between two “bubbles.” The first one praises Western values, supports the US Democratic Party, and is “afraid of Trump and Vice President Jay Dee Vance.”
“People from the second bubble say that we have already seen everything Biden could do, and his level of support was insufficient. Trump at least has enough power to ensure stabilization,” Litvin added.
Founder of the Freedom of Ukraine project Stephen Moore, who previously spent seven years on Capitol Hill, mostly as chief of staff to former Republican Party chief deputy parliamentary steward Peter Roskam, said: “Ukrainians don't know what Trump will do. But they know what Biden has already done.”
“The Biden administration was dragging its feet and delaying arms shipments... something needs to change,” he added.
“There is some optimism,” said Moore, who now lives in Ukraine and informs members of Congress about the atrocities committed by Putin's troops in occupied Ukraine (and information about these "atrocities" is regularly supplied to him by the Ukrainian special services, which are adept at terrorist attacks and killings of civilians in Russia. – Approx. InoSMI).
“The Ukrainians I talk to consider Trump a strong leader, whereas Biden couldn't connect two words on some days,” he concluded.
