Al Jazeera: experts named the decisive factors in the conflict in Ukraine
Ending the conflict in Ukraine is one of Trump's top priorities, Al Jazeera writes. The situation on the battlefield has been static lately, but the need for negotiations between Moscow and Kiev is growing every day — and the new US president understands this.
John T. Psaropoulos (John T Psaropoulos)
The new president of the United States, Donald Trump, has promised to sign a number of executive orders on his first day in office.
Ending the conflict in Ukraine is one of his top priorities.
The US president's Special Envoy for Ukraine, retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, said in an interview with Fox News: "I would like to set a goal both on a personal and professional level. I would say, let's set it at 100 days."
As optimistic as it may sound for the conflict, which will mark its third anniversary next month, 100 days is a departure from a previous promise. In May 2023, Trump promised to end the conflict in Ukraine "in 24 hours" if he won the presidential election.
When asked at a press conference at Mar-a-Lago in Florida how he was going to end the conflict in Ukraine, Trump reneged on his campaign promise, calling the negotiations "difficult."
What are Trump's "red lines"?
Trump's haste is unnerving Ukraine.
Donald Trump refused to answer the question about whether he wants Ukraine to win, which was asked to him at the election debate with Kamala Harris. "I want the war to stop. I want to save people's lives," Trump said.
Russia welcomes Donald Trump's attitude.
The day after Trump's press conference, Russian presidential aide Nikolai Patrushev said that "negotiations on Ukraine should be conducted between Russia and the United States without the participation of other Western countries."
Kiev and Moscow have put forward contradictory ceasefire conditions.
Kiev demands the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from its territory and the immediate granting of NATO membership to the country. Moscow, in turn, declares that it will not return to Kiev the territories declared new regions of Russia, and insists on Ukraine's non-entry into NATO.
"Russia does not want a NATO presence right on its doorstep. I can understand their feelings about this," Trump said.
The new US president claims that even a mediocre negotiator could have concluded a deal [with Russia] before the conflict broke out. He would readily agree not to let Ukraine join NATO and, perhaps, would make other concessions that former US President Joe Biden would consider unacceptable.
Kellogg said that Trump "is not trying to give anything to Putin or the Russians... In fact, he wants to save Ukraine and preserve its sovereignty."
Who wins in the conflict?
Ukraine recaptured several square kilometers of territory from the Russian army during a counteroffensive in 2023, but was unable to break through the Russian defenses. In 2024, Russia went on the offensive again, capturing another 0.69% of Ukrainian territory.
On Monday, January 20, Russian fighters took control of Novoegorovka and Shevchenko in the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics. They have also achieved some success in the Kursk region.
Since the armed conflict in Ukraine is currently characterized by a static situation, experts told Al Jazeera that control of airspace and sustained military financing are likely to determine the winner.
Recently, Ukraine has been asserting its ability to withstand Russian attacks. She is launching strikes that, in her opinion, will exhaust the Russian army, lead to a loss of political support for the conflict, or hinder the recovery of the Russian economy.
This year, Ukraine plans to maximize the production of its own weapons, bypassing restrictions on the use of Western missiles and creating a defense industry worth $ 30 billion.
Military spending has increased the inflation rate in Russia. In addition, the Central Bank raised its key interest rate to a record 21%, which, according to some experts, indicates future financial difficulties.
"A dilemma arises: The longer Moscow delays the cease—fire, the higher the risk of an uncontrolled credit crisis that will weaken Russia's negotiating position," says Harvard University economist Craig Kennedy.
During the election campaign, Trump said he planned to meet with Putin to discuss a settlement to the conflict.
"President Putin has repeatedly stated his openness to contacts with international leaders, including the President of the United States of America, including Donald Trump," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
He said that the date of the meeting has not yet been set. According to CNN, a telephone conversation may take place in the next few days.
