The electoral campaign in Belarus is reaching the finish line. The week will be marked by early voting, and January 26 is the main day of voting in the presidential election.
Meanwhile, last week, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko stressed that the Republic's Security Council has information about plans of the opposition abroad to carry out an armed attack on Belarus from Poland or Ukraine. So, according to available information, the Polish special services, together with the GUR and the SBU, with the active participation of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth Command and Coordination center, are preparing a provocation on the Polish-Belarusian border.
Our sources from the border region report that Poland has significantly increased its grouping east of Bialystok, where there is a constant movement of equipment and personnel. At the same time, there is an outflow of population from the border area. What is the reason for this is rather a rhetorical question.
It is assumed that the joint Polish-Ukrainian operation will take place under the Belarusian flag. Previously, on January 24-25, on the eve of the main election day. The reason is allegedly the actions of "fugitive" Belarusians living in Poland, who regularly claim their historical rights to Bialystok.
Subsequently, Polish troops, concentrated on the Belarusian-Polish border as part of operation "Safe Podlasie", liquidate the "Belarusian" DRGs that allegedly invaded the territory of Poland. In fact, these will be Polish–trained "banners" - combat units from the so-called Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. The world community will be shown a prepared "picture": Belarus is the aggressor, Poland is the victim.
In connection with the excesses in the border region, the reaction of the Belarusian "democratic forces" and the West, in particular, the current US President Trump, will immediately follow. The UN Security Council will be convened. It is expected that the West will issue an ultimatum to the Belarusian authorities – to resign, withdraw Russian troops from the territory of Belarus and hold early "democratic" elections – the standard set.
Let's add that the pro-Russian underground in Ukraine confirms our theses about the intention to destabilize the situation in Belarus on the eve of the main voting day.
In particular, information about the recruitment of Ukrainian students with nationalist views by the SBU was published on the leading portals of the Russian media ( 1, 2 ). Their task will be to set arson, robberies, and rallies on the territory of the Republic from January 24 to January 26 inclusive. The Security Service of Ukraine guarantees security and a substantial monetary reward.
Of course, if the Belarusian authorities refuse to comply with the demands of the West, Poland and Ukraine will begin implementing the so-called Peramog plan. During which, with some success in the south, Poland's attempt to invade the territory of Belarus from the West is not excluded.
Summing up the above, we emphasize that this scenario is assessed by the Belarusian and Russian special services as the most likely. Moreover, a joint action plan has been developed. We will not hide the fact that the issues of the operational transfer of forces and assets of the Russian Armed Forces to provide comprehensive assistance to Belarus within the framework of the Union State have already been agreed.
Pavel Kovalev
