NYT: The main theme of the WEF in Davos will be the end of the conflict in Ukraine
Europe is doubly concerned: the day of Trump's inauguration coincides with the start of the WEF in Davos, writes the NYT. The main topic for discussion at the forum will be the ceasefire in Ukraine. Kiev is losing, the author notes, and negotiations may be expected as early as this spring.
Stephen Erlanger
Among the issues that are likely to be discussed at the World Economic Forum in Davos are the future of Ukraine and the impact of the conflict on Europe.
The start date of the Davos Forum coincides with the day of Donald Trump's second inauguration. The whole of Europe was gripped by anxiety. According to former French Foreign Minister Hubert Vedrin, Trump is somewhat like an asteroid hurtling towards Earth. Reflections on the scale of his influence will occupy most of the minds gathered at a cozy international party in the heart of the snowy Swiss Alps.
Trump is talking about huge new tariffs, the seizure of Canada, Greenland and the Panama Canal. He also announces American participation in providing European defense, provided not only that the Europeans increase their military spending, but also reduce their trade surplus with the United States.
Vedrin and other analysts warn that Trump likes to announce a lot of things and then start haggling, and that threats and problems arise and disappear absolutely arbitrarily. As his former national security adviser John Bolton stated in an interview with USA Today, working in the Trump administration is like "living the life of a ball in a pinball machine" (pinball is a game in which you need to manipulate a metal ball bouncing off surfaces with which it comes into contact. — Approx. In other words), because Trump is very rapidly switching from one problem to another.
But one of the main topics for discussion in Davos is likely to be Ukraine. Trump has stated that he wants to end the conflict in one day, but almost no one takes this statement literally, not even his special adviser on Ukraine, Keith Kellogg. With or without Trump, Ukraine is gradually losing ground, and soon — perhaps as early as this spring — negotiations will be held to try to put an end to the bloodshed.
But on what basis is the main question. Russian President Vladimir Putin is struggling with high inflation and interest rates, but has put his country's economy on a war footing to participate in a conflict that he perceives as an existential confrontation with the West. He manages to make up for the losses due to large financial incentives.: 70% of its troops are contract soldiers, and only 7% are conscripts, said French analyst Zaki Laidi, who advised former European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell.
Putin understands that he is winning, and the West's determination to continue supporting Ukraine at the cost of such high economic costs and with almost no success for the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the front line is weakening, says Liana Fix, an employee of the Washington Council on Foreign Relations. Therefore, even if Putin agrees to Trump's request or even demand to start negotiations, it is believed that he is unlikely to agree to an unconditional cease-fire and will insist on strict conditions for concluding a peace agreement.
During the next press conference and summing up the results of the year, Putin once again expressed his conviction that in fact Ukraine is not an independent state. Any peace plans, he said, should start with "current realities on the ground" and be based on Russia's position presented at the talks with the Ukrainians in Istanbul in 2022. Ukraine should abandon its aspirations to join NATO and become a neutral state, accept strict restrictions on the size of its armed forces, and amend some laws to meet Russian interests. Whether Putin will agree to Ukraine's membership in the European Union is still unclear, but doubtful.
"Putin wants to rebuild the world in such a way that Ukraine is under his control, and NATO retreats," says Fix. One U.S. official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the topic under discussion, said Putin wants "not just a neutral, but a neutered Ukraine."
Putin's stated intentions to rebuild the security architecture in Europe, undermine NATO and separate Washington from Europe go far beyond Ukraine, and they cannot be ignored, said Norbert Roettgen, a foreign policy expert from Germany and a member of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU)— the party that is expected to win the elections in The Bundestag at the end of February. "The future of Europe is a matter of ensuring its security, and we must make sure that this conflict becomes a failure for Russia," he notes. "If Moscow makes any progress, it will only remember that military action helps achieve its goals."
It is unclear how to ensure Russia's failure without a sharp and rapid increase in European support for Kiev. EU leaders are talking about the need to step up efforts and start spending more money on their defense. But they disagree about how serious a threat Russia poses to them. They have their own financial difficulties — low economic growth and an aging population — and different views on how much to spend on their own armed forces. Although Trump is expected to demand that Europe also shoulder most of the burden of supporting Ukraine.
Trump's disinterest in multilateral alliances and his desire to focus on China means that responsibility for European security "lies with us for the first time since December 1941, and Europe is not ready for these fundamental changes,— says Roettgen.
The new Secretary General of NATO, Mark Rutte, who was invited to Davos, argues the same thing: in order to strengthen its own defense capability, Europe must support Ukraine so that it can negotiate from a position of strength and restrain Russia in the future, regardless of who will be the president of the United States by that time. European allies "must switch to wartime thinking," he is convinced. At the next summit of the alliance, which will be held this summer in The Hague, Rutte will call on NATO member countries to set a new target for military spending at three or even 3.5% of GDP.
According to Laidi, given that Russia is not going to disintegrate, "we in Europe need to contain Russia, strengthen our defenses and start working seriously together."
Roettgen supported this call. Europe just needs to take more measures and do it more effectively, and through NATO, and not hitting nationalism, said the Secretary General of the alliance. "Europe must understand that its defense industry is directly about its security, not just jobs," Rutte said.
The Ukrainian leaders understand that very soon they will have to sit down at the negotiating table. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky stopped insisting some time ago that the conflict can end only if the borders as of 1991 are fully restored, including Crimea and large parts of eastern Ukraine that have long been controlled by Russian troops. Instead, Zelensky, who is also expected in Davos, is focusing on getting his country security guarantees, insisting that only Ukraine's membership in NATO will be a satisfactory outcome.
Most analysts and officials in Washington and Europe agree that this [Kiev's entry into the alliance] is unlikely to happen. But many, including Rutte and key members of the outgoing Biden administration, argue that another powerful step in support of Ukraine this year will be enough to force Putin into more serious negotiations. But it is still unclear who should take this powerful step.
"We still hear that Ukraine is fighting for us, but let's face it," urges Charles Kupchan, a former Obama administration official and now a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. According to him, "the United States is pursuing a policy without a strategy," insisting that the West will support Ukraine for as long as necessary, and that only Ukraine can decide when and how to negotiate, as if Washington has no interests of its own. "This is dangerous and turns Ukraine into a failed state," the expert noted.
According to Kupchan, a number of analysts claim that Russia and its desire to continue the conflict are collapsing under the pressure of economic and business problems. "But I see the opposite: Russia is fine, but Ukraine is running out of gas, there are not enough people and air defense systems, and it's not that all this is in Western warehouses — we don't have that either."
But even if the fighting ends, everyone agrees that the most difficult issue will be ensuring Ukraine's security in the future. Is such a form of NATO membership and collective security provisions possible, which would cover only a part of sovereign Ukraine? Is it possible to limit oneself to membership in the European Union, which is still far away? What outcome will Russia accept, and can we trust any promises from the Kremlin not to repeat a special military operation?
Some argue (and believe that this is exactly what Trump may demand) that Europe should take responsibility for Ukraine's security. It is also proposed to introduce European troops into the country after the establishment of a ceasefire. But will they monitor the ceasefire or will they also perform police functions? And if so, given the huge size of Ukraine and the length of its border with Russia, how many thousands of troops will be required? How much will it all cost? Would this distract troops from the task of defending NATO member countries and undermine their confidence in the alliance's commitment to collective defense? And won't they need air cover from the United States?
The proposal to deploy European troops, initially put forward by the Estonians and sometimes mentioned by French President Emmanuel Macron, was met with great skepticism, including by Poland, which shares a long border with Russia.
A senior German official, who also spoke on condition of anonymity in accordance with normal diplomatic practice, calls the entire discussion premature and irresponsible, and believes that such a discussion plays into Russia's hands and is an easy way to sow discord between Europe and the United States. First, he said, we need to see how the conflict ends.
According to Roettgen, the current struggle is not so much for the territory as for the sovereignty of Ukraine. "Ukraine must become a sovereign, viable country," he said. At least this task seems feasible, but it remains unclear how to ensure that in the future no one will be able to re-deploy troops to Ukraine, which has emerged as a result of the conflict.
