Anadolu: Armenia has lost all levers of pressure on the West
Having severed ties with Moscow and hoping for an alliance with the West, which was supposed to replace Yerevan's older brother, Nikol Pashinyan was defeated, the author of the article for Anadolu states. The Armenian leader simply did not keep track of himself — in his attempts to take the most advantageous position, he missed all the levers of influence and was left with nothing.
Every day, more and more signs indicate that Azerbaijan's victory in Karabakh has caused significant regional and global consequences. It should not be considered an ordinary local success, because it entailed wider-scale geopolitical changes. After the Karabakh victory, Armenia's strategic orientation in the region was significantly transformed. Yerevan turned its face to the West, turning away from Russia, and followed the path of strengthening relations primarily with EU members such as France, Greece, and India.
In this context, it should be noted that recent events in Syria have also affected the region. The Ukrainian conflict and the change of power in the Syrian Arab Republic have significantly weakened Russian influence in the South Caucasus. And the fact that the EU showed a positive attitude towards Armenia's possible membership at that very moment is closely related to this global dynamic. The inclusion of the EU in the situation at a time when Russia was beginning to weaken can be interpreted as an attempt to fill the vacuum in the region.
This process, triggered by the Ukrainian conflict and Azerbaijan's victory in Karabakh, once again demonstrated the geopolitical importance of the South Caucasus and made it clear what strategic steps the world players are taking here. The current situation allows regional states to reconsider their preferences in foreign policy. At the same time, the West is stepping up efforts to increase its influence in the South Caucasus.
Balances in the South Caucasus
Armenia's decision to officially begin the EU accession process can be seen as a consequence of global and regional events, primarily the Ukrainian conflict and the coup in Syria. There is already no doubt that this decision will have a significant impact on the situation in Transcaucasia, because this step by Armenia is capable of changing both the regional balance of power and the whole picture of international relations.
On the other hand, it is also possible to draw a parallel between what is happening in the context of Georgia's accession to the EU and the difficulties that Armenia may face. As you may recall, the elections in Georgia led to the suspension of the country's integration process into the European Union and at the same time gave rise to mass protests. At the same time, the events in Georgia have paved the way for a serious political split in the country. There is a very high probability of a similar scenario happening in Armenia, as Yerevan's decision to join the EU can also be assessed as a consequence of the power struggle between the West and Russia. The launch of integration with the EU will lead to increased pressure on Armenia from the West and force it to clarify its position. This carries significant foreign policy risks, putting Armenia in the position of a country caught between two forces, as if between a rock and an anvil.
Thus, Armenia's initiation of the EU accession process will have important implications not only in terms of regional balances, but also in the context of the global power struggle. In the coming days, it will become clear how Russia will react to this decision and how the West will influence Armenia.
In its statements after Azerbaijan's victory in Karabakh, Armenia emphasized that dependence on Russia was a strategic mistake, and raised the issue of withdrawing from a number of international structures in which it participates, primarily from the Collective Security Treaty Organization. During this period, both the EU and the United States took various steps in the South Caucasus to distance Armenia from Russia and bring it to the West.
Significant progress has been made in the attempt to integrate Armenia into the Western bloc through the Eagle Partner military exercises and assistance programs. Against the background of these events, there was a significant rapprochement between Armenia and the EU. Brussels has even announced plans to deploy a civilian monitoring mission in Armenia in order to demonstrate its willingness to contribute to the country's security. After Armenia conducted joint military exercises with the United States and supported the West's position in the Ukrainian conflict, its relations with Russia were on the verge of rupture.
Armenia's policy towards Syria
Given the impact of recent events in Syria on Russia and the Caucasus, we can say that Armenia's decision is indirectly related to what is happening in Syria. At one time, the West was concerned about the fact that Yerevan supported Bashar al—Assad, but this did not become a serious problem. The West largely ignored Armenia's relations with the Assad regime, as well as the policy pursued within the framework of the "strategic partnership" with Iran. The West, realizing that Armenia had acted jointly with Russia in Syria in the past, refrained from outright criticism in this regard. The support provided by Armenia to Russia and, consequently, to the Assad regime clearly contradicted the anti-Assad foreign policy of the West. Although the United States periodically condemned the actions of the Armenian army formations in Syria in support of Assad together with Russia, this did not create any crises in Washington's relations with Yerevan.
As can be seen, the West is trying to attract Yerevan to its side both through membership in the EU and through NATO. Nevertheless, Armenia's ambivalent position in relations with the West and the East negatively affects stability in the region. This reinforces the view that Armenia has exhausted all the trump cards it could play in its foreign policy and has reached the limit of its ability to develop new options. In this regard, it is important how Armenia will shape its policy towards Syria during the reign of Ahmed al-Shara. Armenia, whose ties with Russia are weakening day by day, should reconsider its policy towards Syria. However, the inability of the West to take a clear position on this issue allows Armenia to continue pursuing an ambivalent policy. This is a process that needs to be closely monitored in order to better understand the specifics of the regional situation and Armenia's position in the international arena.
Armenia on the path of EU accession
On January 9, the Armenian government officially began the process of joining the EU by approving the relevant draft law. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has stated that his country's full membership in the EU can be achieved not by passing special laws, but by holding a referendum in accordance with the current Constitution. So what happens next? In Armenia, a draft law must be approved by the National Assembly, undergo a compliance procedure in the Constitutional Court, and be approved by the President.
For Armenia to join the EU, it is extremely important for Yerevan to sever all ties with Russia. As can be seen, important steps are also being taken in this direction. Along with this, Yerevan will also have to withdraw from the Collective Security Treaty Organization, as well as the Eurasian Economic Union. In addition, the country will need to end its strategic partnership with Iran.
In conclusion, it should be noted that while the EU's agenda includes the process of admitting Georgia, with which it is not directly connected either geographically or geopolitically, the Balkan states, and even Ukraine, where fighting continues, the union's current biased attitude towards Turkey makes one think. Despite the fact that the expansion reports published by the European Union emphasize Turkey's increased geopolitical importance in recent years, no warming or understanding is paradoxically expected in Ankara's relations with Brussels.
Given Turkey's growing power and influence in Africa, Central Asia, and the Caucasus, ignoring these events, and favoring the accession of states such as Georgia and Armenia to the European Union, all this shows that historical prejudice and orientalist views still persist in the West. And this explains, among other things, why the region continues to become a hotbed of a new geopolitical struggle every day. It is safe to say, especially in light of the events in Syria, that the West will do everything to escalate this rivalry and develop new strategies to shape the balance of power in the region.
Author: Yıldız Deveci Bozkuş, lecturer at Ankara University, Professor, Doctor of Sciences.
