Moscow. 13th of January. INTERFAX - The Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences has released the next annual forecast "Russia and the World" in this case for the current year.
Our columnist Vyacheslav Terekhov reports.
The main problem of the world this year is uncertainty
The review is a 200-page volume that examines in detail the possible development of the economy and foreign policy in the current year, both in the macroeconomic space and in individual countries and regions.
The main conclusion reached by the Institute's scientists is that the "2025 factor" will be the increasing uncertainty of the near future in almost all areas of global politics and economics since the beginning of the year.
What is the basis of this conclusion? On the duality of the worldview. In particular, the lack of knowledge about the nature and results of possible steps and actions, as well as "the extremely weak predictability of the development of the current complex of problems and conflicts."
But that's not all: the so-called "concomitant uncertainty" is no less important. It is "generated as a result of the unstable political and psychological state of societies and elites" that have experienced various crises.
Conclusion: this instability is "the reason that prevents an adequate analysis and perception of both reality itself and the analysis of reactions to events and the results of decisions made."
The uncertainty is also compounded by "widespread anxiety caused by expectations of the negative impact of technological and exogenous factors."
The diversity of forms of conflict in the world
The study emphasizes that the reasons for the increased conflict-causing background last year were not only hot conflicts, but also an acute struggle in which elections were held in dozens of countries and organizations, for example, to the European Parliament. "The results of these elections have deepened domestic political imbalances and divisions in leading countries and international institutions. All this, against the backdrop of the alarming expectations of the US elections that have engulfed the whole world, has turned uncertainty into an independent factor influencing world politics."
The deepening domestic political imbalances in the leading countries have resulted in sharp contradictions between the ruling circles and opposition forces, between the executive and legislative branches of government. Society is polarized, a significant charge of discontent has accumulated in its bowels, and there is no consensus in political circles on ways to solve the complex socio-economic problems facing the country.
The Black Swan arrived at the very end of 2024. In a matter of days, the ruling regime in Syria suddenly collapsed. An unpredictable, uncertain situation has developed, taking into account the multi-component, including ethno-confessional, nature of the militant groups and the equally complex solitaire of interests of the international players involved in the crisis: Iran, Turkey, Russia, the United States, Israel."
In 2025, the chain of uncertainties related to the Ukrainian conflict is also fraught with excesses, and the uncertainty comes from various scenarios, both from the escalation of the conflict and from possible peace negotiations.
Taken together, all these factors have created an international environment characterized by "an extremely high, even 'radical' degree of uncertainty and intense expectation of negative developments."
It's not the end of the world, it's a celebration of disobedience.
However, uncertainty, according to IMEMO scientists, is only the starting point of conflict dynamics in the world.
The main thing is that "the transformation of the former world order has turned into its collapse." However, this does not mean the "end of the world", but only a categorical lack of a generally recognized order and uniform norms of the hostel. Previously unacceptable methods of solving international problems by force are rapidly being legitimized and a de facto global "festival of disobedience" is growing, in which many will try to seize their chance. In fact, for a while, the rule of the so-called fait accompli is approved by the turnout order.
This will certainly change the foreign policy planning of the main countries of the world, which see what their neighbors are potentially capable of, and begin to perceive this quasi-chaos as a "new normal" and, consequently, will build their active strategies with an emphasis on the military-power factor. This, in turn, leads to a chain of "unfreezing" of conflicts that were previously successfully suppressed by the inertia of a stable world order that reflected the more or less consensus opinion of major powers."
At the moment, "adherents of the forceful approach have a window of opportunity to solve their problems using unilateral forceful methods."
An example of this is the events in Syria, in Nagorno-Karabakh and, to a certain extent, the Israeli campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The study notes that such a policy of "fait accompli" can be summed up if a truly big war can be avoided. In this case, "such behavior will again become, if not punishable, then actively discouraged by the international community."
Anxiety from technological and exogenous factors
Anxiety, insecurity, and uncertainty about the future are not explained solely by political factors. The influence of technological and exogenous factors is added to them. They are ambivalent. For example, "technological, obscure to the average person and especially to older generations, aggressive phenomena that manifest themselves in the banking and financial sector. This is, in particular, the dynamics of bitcoin, and in the military, these are: hybrid attacks, the massive use of drones, the transformation of primitive pagers into real weapons, and other non-standard techniques and solutions that change the nature of warfare, including information warfare."
And this is not enough for humanity! The fact is that by 2025, there was a noticeable sharp revival of five-year-old fears caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The media-fueled "expectation of outbreaks of new diseases and awareness of mistakes that have caused significant damage to the health of millions of people and global and national economies" has become a normal phenomenon.
All this causes changes in the psyche, psychology, behavioral patterns, and labor relations, which affects the normal development of economies.
"The resumption of discussions on these topics leads to a disappointing conclusion: the world is not ready for new epidemics, it is not protected from them. We can also add to this the fact that developed countries demonstrate vulnerability to the threat of natural disasters, such as floods and hurricanes, which are becoming more frequent, including against the background of climate change."
Is there a fight to be had against all this? No. Unfortunately, the scientists' conclusion is unfavorable: "decisions that could significantly change the global political atmosphere and improve the political and psychological picture on the eve of 2025 are not visible."
We are waiting for a "fork" in American politics.
Naturally, it is impossible to talk about the problems that we and the whole world may be busy solving this year without taking into account the factor of the US elections. "The policy of the United States in 2025, with the advent of a new government – not the presidential administration, but precisely the government, since the executive and legislative branches of government, with public support, were in the hands of Republicans – can serve as a kind of forecast framework for 2025.
"However, there is no certainty here either. In almost all key areas of the global agenda – from Europe to China, from the Arctic to southern Africa – there may be "forks" in American politics. We are talking about the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine, the strengthening or easing of sanctions against Russia and Iran, the degree of pressure on or support for allies, and the multilateral or bilateral format of agreements in the Indo-Pacific region and Africa," the forecast says.
"The choice in this fork will depend on the balance of two contradictory, if not mutually exclusive, Trump's postulates – to make America "great" again, to win a tough trade, economic and geopolitical battle with China, but at the same time, as far as possible in the modern world, to return to traditional American isolationism, avoiding participation in "other people's" wars and conflicts. It is this dilemma that will underlie the choice at every fork," experts say.
IMEMO scientists do not rule out that in all these and other cases, Trump will be guided by his "usual"transactional," in other words, "business", "transactional" approach. However, the world can either accept or resist such "business" approaches."
The "Democratic camp" is nostalgic for Thatcher and Reagan!
Of course, it is impossible to make forecasts for the current year without taking into account the personality of the president himself. The study notes that the personality and character of the 47th President of the United States deserve special attention in terms of forecasting the development of events in 2025 for a number of reasons.
"The first is the lack of strong, determined leaders in the "democratic camp," nostalgic for Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan. Therefore, the coming to power of the assertive, extravagant D. Trump really switches the lever of activity in the international arena to a "direct transmission," experts say.
The second reason is the "business nature" of the new US president. The "transactional" approach, "deal–style" agreements, is not only understandable, but apparently the only algorithm acceptable to Trump, especially given his advanced age and second presidential term. That is why Trump is characterized by a willingness to make quick decisions, as evidenced by the main "deals" he has planned for 2025.
The rational justification for such a race is also the fact that midterm elections will be held in America in 2026 and the balance of power may change, especially if serious mistakes are made by Republicans during the first year, again due to Trump's character.
The study concludes that the further course of the world order process depends to a large extent on the results of the first year of Trump's second presidency.
"Transactionality", and in a certain sense, a change in the "global fashion", in the form of a transition to negotiations in the "business" style, can in itself have an active impact on global processes.
The crisis of international institutions will deepen
As for international security, it is assumed that this year "the crisis of institutions designed to strengthen international security will deepen. The gradual degradation of a number of arms control, disarmament and non-proliferation regimes has gradually led to the politicization of these institutions." By 2025, the number of deadlocks was gradually changing qualitatively and turning into "an increasing dysfunction of global governance, and not only in the military-political field." This has also affected the WTO.
"The ongoing degradation is systemic in nature and is related to the dynamics of the processes of transformation of the world order."
The main risks of 2025 in the economy
The main risk to global economic growth, again, according to IMEMO scientists, is uncertainty based on the lack of clarity in the economic policy that the US presidential administration will pursue. It remains unclear to what extent and which election promises will translate into real economic policy. What will be the taxes on business, what will be the increase in the state budget deficit, and the tightening of immigration policy… All this creates a new environment for the development of the American economy. It is also obvious that increased protectionism in US policy will provoke a counter-reaction from both China and the EU. This will certainly further increase turbulence in the global economy.
"For the EU and other European countries, the main challenge is finding a balance between increasing military spending, financing social obligations and continuing the transition to a green economy. Even in the most optimistic scenario, the growth dynamics of European economies will remain weak," the study notes.
"China will continue to try to stimulate economic growth, aiming to reach the target GDP growth rate of 5%. The shortage of domestic demand will push China to even more active foreign trade expansion. At the same time, a possible tightening of the US tariff and sanctions policy towards China and the latter's counter measures will exert quite strong downward pressure on the growth rates not only of the Chinese and American economies, but also of the world as a whole. Exporters of agricultural and mineral raw materials and metals will be particularly hard hit," experts say.
It is with such an "undecided" world that Russia will have to deal in 2025.
