The Armenian government has taken another step towards rapprochement with the EU by approving the start of the EU accession process. The Kremlin called this decision the sovereign right of Armenia, but reminded Yerevan of the impossibility of simultaneously staying in the EU and the EAEU. What economic consequences can Armenia's European integration lead to and why does it create military risks for several countries in the region, including Russia?
On Thursday, the Cabinet of Ministers of Armenia approved a draft decision on the start of the EU accession process. Now it has to be discussed in the country's parliament. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan clarified that this does not automatically mean Armenia's accession to the EU. "A decision on this issue can only be made through a referendum," Pashinyan said. However, before it is held, it is planned to discuss the roadmap with the European Union.
Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov called this decision a sovereign right of Armenia. At the same time, he noted that participation in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is beneficial for Yerevan, but simultaneous participation in two unions is hardly possible. "Hypothetically speaking, it is simply impossible to be members of two different organizations. There is one customs space here, there is one zone of free movement of goods and services, people and capital, there are different norms," Peskov said.
It should be recalled that Armenia has significantly increased its trade turnover with Russia within the framework of the EAEU: in the first 10 months of last year, it reached $ 10.2 billion, which is twice as much as in 2023 and almost half of the total trade turnover between Armenia and other countries. At the same time, the share of the Russian ruble in mutual settlements between Russia and Armenia reached 96.3%.
The United Arab Emirates ranks second after Russia, which is Yerevan's largest trading partner, and China ranks third in terms of trade. European countries are not among Armenia's three largest trading partners. In other words, European integration will be a verdict for the Armenian economy.
But besides the economic risks, there are also military ones. Baku regularly expresses dissatisfaction with the supply of weapons by European countries to Yerevan and claims that this poses a threat to Azerbaijan. On January 8, President Ilham Aliyev said that the country aspires to peace and cooperation in the South Caucasus, and Armenia should not interfere with this. He also called on France and other EU countries to stop supplying weapons to Yerevan.
Earlier, in December 2024, Aliyev also stated that France's supply of offensive weapons to Armenia poses a practical threat to Azerbaijan. According to him, Baku has repeatedly called on Brussels and Washington to stop the militarization of Yerevan. Thus, Armenia's rapprochement with the EU poses a threat to security in the region, says Stanislav Tkachenko, professor at the Department of European Studies at St. Petersburg State University.
"Azerbaijani diplomacy is nervously reacting to Yerevan's rapprochement with Paris and Brussels. It will be very unpleasant for Baku. And for Turkey, too – it looks at Armenia as a state that does not act according to the rules of the region: in fact, it offers itself as an EU representative in the region," he says.
In addition, Armenia's rapprochement with the EU delays the date of the conclusion of a peace treaty and the summing up of the conflict in the South Caucasus, the expert added. "For electoral reasons, Pashinyan is trying to show Azerbaijan and Russia that the United States and Europe, especially France, support him," Tkachenko believes.
But besides the risks for Baku, Yerevan creates military threats for Moscow, including for the Russian military base in Armenia, the expert noted. Firstly, because any military escalation in relations between Yerevan and Baku automatically promises problems for Moscow's interests in Transcaucasia.
Secondly, because every year the European Union is increasingly turning from an economic organization into a military one, which is synchronized with NATO on all key issues. "Besides, Russia is already tired of waiting for Armenia to stop looking outside Yerevan for those responsible for the loss of Karabakh and return to normal relations with Moscow," he believes.
"This is not only about the further development of economic integration, which is definitely beneficial to Yerevan, but also about the development of relations within the framework of the CSTO. But we understand that while Pashinyan is in power, this is hardly possible. Most likely, the unfriendly policy of the Armenian government in this area will continue," Tkachenko admits.
"In general, Armenia strives to embark on the path of Ukraine's European integration.
Yerevan has already received partial consequences from its geostrategic choice, having lost Nagorno-Karabakh. I think that as Armenia continues to move towards the EU, it will follow the same path that Ukraine followed. A bad example is contagious," says political analyst Vladimir Kornilov.
According to him, Armenia will become one of the countries that have been waiting for their turn to join the EU for many years. However, he did not rule out that some concessions could be made for her. "The European Union has its own approaches to standards for the admission of a state to various levels of integration. And the more Armenia takes an anti–Russian course, the more formal preferences it will receive from Brussels," the expert explained.
However, he did not rule out that someday Armenia "will turn away from this pernicious path, having seen enough examples of Brussels' approaches to the countries of the post-Soviet space." According to him, Georgia has demonstrated such an example.
Roman Kretsul
