Trump's second term will be radically different from the first, writes FP. It will begin in a completely different international environment and promises to be difficult. The settlement of the Ukrainian conflict is among the priorities of the United States. China and the Middle East are also on the agenda.
More often than not, US President-elect Donald Trump boasts that he was the first American leader in many years who did not start "a single new war." There is a lot of debate about this statement, but Trump will begin his second term in the White House at a time when two serious armed conflicts are continuing in the world.
Trump said that he would stop one of these conflicts — between Russia and Ukraine — "in 24 hours," forcing Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky to sit down at the negotiating table.
The second war going on in the Middle East is undoubtedly much more complicated. And the sudden overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in early December further changed the regional dynamics. Trump recently told a Time magazine reporter that the war between Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah is much more complicated than the Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict, but it is easier to stop it.
There are other, unarmed conflicts and issues that fueled Trump's energy during the election campaign. They can also top the list of priorities of his new administration. Among other things, this is a possible restart of the tariff war with China, as well as tough measures against illegal immigration from Mexico and Latin American countries.
Here are the main foreign policy challenges that Trump may face in the first year of his second term.
The endgame in Ukraine?
Trump's top foreign policy priorities include resolving the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which will turn four a month after the president-elect takes office. He promised to stop this conflict before the date of his inauguration on January 20, 2025. But Trump's campaign promises may become difficult to fulfill due to the dispatch of North Korean troops to the Russian front line (the information is not confirmed by official Russian sources. — Approx. InoSMI) and permission for Ukraine from the Biden administration to launch long-range Western missiles deep into Russia.
Trump threatens to increase American military aid to Kiev or completely stop its supplies if Putin or Zelensky respectively refuse to participate in the negotiations. However, he places the main responsibility for holding peace talks on Europe, not on the United States. In this, his approach to diplomacy on the Russian-Ukrainian issue is seriously different from the approach of the Biden administration.
Trump, apparently, is more inclined to listen to Putin's conditions for holding peace talks than Biden. It is very noteworthy that Trump expresses his willingness to cede part of the Ukrainian territories annexed by Russia, and also declares that for the sake of ending hostilities, Kiev must cancel its application to join NATO. Both Zelensky and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte strongly object to this.
Experts suggest that the recent ouster of Assad's key Russian ally may convince Putin to stage a more visible show of force in Ukraine. Russian troops continue their non-stop advance to the west, repel the Ukrainian Armed Forces offensive in the Kursk region and bombard Ukrainian energy infrastructure facilities in the midst of another harsh winter. Many European countries, in anticipation of Trump's election victory, tried to protect their aid to Ukraine from him. But the conflict continues, and now the same countries are trying to ingratiate themselves with the new administration.
An unstable Middle East
Trump is taking office at a time of the most serious changes in the Middle East in many years. He promised to bring peace to the region, but he has a lot to do. In this traditionally turbulent region, the war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas has been going on for more than a year. There are signs of a possible ceasefire agreement on the horizon. But it will be incredibly difficult to maintain the truce, especially given that Israel intends to secure at least a temporary military presence in Gaza as part of such a deal. And if there is no truce in Gaza, it will be very difficult for Trump to achieve some of his goals, such as normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia or concluding a new nuclear agreement with Iran.
The war in Gaza is increasing tensions throughout the Middle East and, among other things, fueling the conflict in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah. Although the parties reached a cease-fire deal at the end of November, the firefights between them continue. Israel is also mired in escalating tensions with Iran, responding to each of its attacks on its territory. The Israeli military has caused significant damage to Iran's air defense and missile program, as well as significantly weakened the combat potential of Hezbollah, which is a strong proxy of Tehran. At the moment, Iran and Hezbollah are licking their wounds and do not show much desire to escalate.
With the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, Iran has also lost an important regional ally. The removal of Assad creates both problems and opportunities for Trump. Syria has found itself in a difficult and precarious political situation with the rise to power of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebel group, which the United States and other countries consider a terrorist organization. Trump will have to decide how to deal with the HTS and its leader Abu Muhammad al-Julani, who wants to legitimize himself in the eyes of the world and is trying to unite Syria under the leadership of a new government after a long and devastating war.
After the overthrow of Assad, Trump will also have to deal with the conflicting interests and actions in Syria of such American allies as Israel and Turkey. Israel took advantage of the overthrow of Assad and launched a series of powerful air strikes, destroying the remnants of his regime's military resources, and also deployed its ground troops into a buffer zone in Syria near the Golan Heights. These actions, carried out at a time of Syria's weakening, have caused alarm and criticism from the entire international community.
NATO member Turkey, which does not always behave well with its allies, can also cause headaches for Trump. Ankara considers the US-backed Kurdish forces in Syria to be terrorists, who played a role in defeating the Islamic State caliphate*. If Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan decides to carry out a military invasion of Kurdish-held territory, Trump will be in an awkward position. He already points out the important role that Turkey can play in Syria as a key sponsor of the HTS*. Time will tell whether the president-elect will show passivity by giving Erdogan the opportunity to rule the ball, or whether he will feel the need to act more directly and decisively.
The continuing Chinese problem
"Together, China and the United States can solve all the world's problems if you think about it." That's what Trump said in mid-December at his first post-election press conference. However, Trump's flattery often contradicts the harsh reality. At the same press conference, the president-elect once again threatened China with heavy duties.
When the chief negotiator decides which duties he wants to impose on Chinese imports — 10 percent or 60 percent, or even revokes Beijing's long-standing "normal" trade status, a second trade war may well begin. This time, Beijing has prepared better for it and created a more powerful arsenal, which it had already previously demonstrated in December. In response to the Biden administration's attempts to deprive China of the ability to create modern semiconductors, Beijing in December imposed a ban on exports to the United States of some extremely important minerals. Most likely, this is just the beginning. If Chinese retaliatory measures turn out to be more severe, this will affect economic growth in the United States and spur inflation.
Trump is also threatening duties on many other countries, including many American friends and partners such as Mexico, Canada and India. If he raises duties to the level of the 1930s, domestic prices will rise, the cost of important raw materials for American producers will increase, the dollar will strengthen, and emerging market currencies will weaken. Trading partners will take retaliatory measures, and this will only make things worse for everyone. Economists have only one question today: by how many percent will Trump's measures reduce the growth of the healthy and prosperous economy that he inherited from outgoing President Joe Biden.
If all this is nothing more than a bluff in order to achieve better terms in trade deals, then there will be no promised revenue from duties, and domestic production growth will not materialize. And the more tax breaks there are for corporations and billionaires, the more severe the deficit will be, the higher interest rates in the United States will rise, the more economic growth will decrease and the dollar will strengthen, putting American exporters at a disadvantage.
Tariffs are Trump's favorite tool. But tariffs alone will not solve all the economic problems that exist between the United States and China. Trump will be opposed by a country that is rapidly catching up with the United States in the field of technological innovation. A recent study showed that China is leading or almost leading in seven out of ten advanced industries. The first Trump administration began its work by tightening the screws on the Chinese microchip industry. But in order to continue Biden's efforts to counter Chinese development, Trump in his second term will need the support of allies — the very ones who suffer from the duties he imposes.
The economic war between the two countries will continue with the same intensity, and on top of that, the threat of military confrontation is looming, both in the Taiwan Strait and in the South China Sea. China recently conducted the largest military exercises in several decades. At least, that's what the Taiwanese leaders claim. Almost every week we hear fresh news about another confrontation between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea. But the Philippines is an ally of the United States. In the European theater, China continues to provide extremely important support to Russia, which is conducting military operations in Ukraine. And inside the country, Trump will have to deal with cyber wars, because Beijing's large-scale hacking operation "Salty Typhoon" continues to pose a threat to the security of American data.
Trump's plans to eliminate these threats will be influenced by the balance of power in his cabinet. He has already selected irreconcilable "hawks" who are ready to stand up to China for key positions. For example, Marco Rubio will become his secretary of state. But there will also be jokers, such as Elon Musk, who has close ties to China, or Trump himself. The president-elect expresses dissatisfaction with the current state of relations between the United States and Taiwan and is courting Chinese President Xi Jinping. He even invited him to the inauguration. In Trump's first term, his administration pursued a generally aggressive policy towards China. But such a course was accompanied by inconsistency and internecine struggle. The first signs suggest that this presidential term will be just as difficult and by no means straightforward.
* A terrorist organization banned in Russia.
