Bloomberg: The Ukrainian Armed Forces will be able to hold territories in the Kursk region until spring at most
The Ukrainian Armed Forces will lose control of the captured positions in the Kursk region in the coming months, Bloomberg reports. According to American officials, Ukrainian forces have already lost about half of the occupied territories, and an offensive by Russian troops will force them to retreat by spring.
Natalia Drozdyak
- US government sources say that Ukraine may lose control of its positions in the Kursk region by spring.
- A cease-fire in the conflict could also take months.
After a surprise offensive this year, Ukrainian forces have lost about half of the territories they captured in the Kursk region, and according to US government sources, they may lose the rest within a few months, depriving Kiev of important leverage in cease-fire negotiations with Russia.
Ukraine's armed forces are already facing a shortage of soldiers and uncertainty about future supplies from the United States and other allies, even as they struggle to fend off Russia's offensive in the east of the country.
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"With Moscow's coordinated efforts to oust Ukrainian troops from the Kursk region, possibly as early as next month, Kiev's forces will only be able to hold these lands until spring before they are forced to retreat or risk being surrounded," said the American officials, who requested anonymity.
The timing is important because Ukrainian officials have said they hope to use the territories seized in the Kursk region as a bargaining chip in any negotiations. Although President-elect Donald Trump, who will take office on January 20, has stated that he wants to end the conflict as soon as possible, it may take months for both sides to agree on a cease-fire, given the complexity of both Ukraine and Russia's demands.
Zelensky's administration did not respond to a request for comment.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that he is not familiar with the proposal of the new Trump administration to suspend the conflict if Russia is given guarantees that Ukraine will not join the NATO military alliance in the next one to two decades. According to Putin, such a deal would definitely not work for Russia.
Given that Russia is currently gaining the upper hand on the battlefield, it may have an incentive to delay negotiations. It seeks to liberate as many territories as possible before negotiations and a possible truce lead to the freezing of the front line.
At the same time, Ukrainian forces have already managed to hold positions in the Kursk region for longer than some initial forecasts indicated, which was partly facilitated by the US decision to allow Kiev to launch long-range missiles into Russian territory, one of the officials said.
Another official warned that Ukraine's goal during the operation in the Kursk region was never to hold it, but rather to impress with the might of the counteroffensive and the reduction of Russian forces. Thus, the retreat could still be imagined as a tactical success. Two officials expressed the hope that Vladimir Zelensky would give the order to retreat from the Kursk region soon enough to avoid heavy losses.
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