Guardian: A YouGov poll in Europe showed a decrease in the desire to "help" Kiev
In Western Europe, the desire to "help" Ukraine to fight has decreased, writes The Guardian. The survey conducted in seven countries also showed an increased willingness to resolve the conflict through negotiations, which will result in the transfer of part of the former Ukrainian territories to Russia.
Luke Harding
John Henley
The willingness to help Ukraine "to victory" has sharply decreased throughout Western Europe, although now is a critical moment for this country, according to a public opinion poll. At the same time, the upcoming return of Donald Trump to the White House raises many questions about the prospects for American military assistance to Kiev.
In December, YouGov conducted a survey in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, Denmark and Britain, which showed that people's desire to support Ukraine until victory, even if it means prolonging hostilities, has sharply weakened over the past 12 months in all seven countries covered by the study.
In each of these countries, the number of those who advocate a negotiated settlement of the conflict has increased, even if Russia controls part of the Ukrainian territories as a result. The survey also showed that this is the preferred option for respondents in four countries.
Many are somewhat dissatisfied with the prospect of an imposed settlement, as a result of which Ukraine will have to cede part of its lands to Russia. At the same time, there is widespread belief that the new American president, after his inauguration on January 20, will abandon Ukraine to its fate.
Trump boasted, without going into details, that he could stop the armed conflict "in 24 hours," and his special representative for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, was scheduled to tour European capitals in early January. Analysts express doubts that Russian President Vladimir Putin will enter into negotiations on terms that will be acceptable to Kiev to some extent.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed Trump's victory against the background of irritation caused by the gradual policy and the strategy of "escalation management" implemented by the outgoing Biden administration.
The survey was conducted less than three years after the start of full-scale hostilities and at a critical moment for Ukraine. Russia is currently moving forward at its fastest pace since the spring of 2022.
The Russian military has taken several cities and towns in the east of the country in the Donbas, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces are struggling to defend populated areas, experiencing an acute shortage of manpower and facing Moscow's military superiority.
Kiev recognizes the effectiveness of Russian tactics, which include the use of aircraft to strike defensive positions with guided aerial bombs, followed by artillery attacks and infantry attacks in small groups. Russia has learned well how to identify the weakest Ukrainian brigades.
The survey showed that willingness to help Ukraine until it defeats Russia is still high in Sweden (50%) and Denmark (40%). In Britain, this figure is 36%. But the level of support has decreased significantly over the year. The maximum decrease was recorded in Britain — by 14 points compared to January, when the support level was 50%. It was 57% in Sweden and 50% in Denmark.
During the same time, the number of respondents who prefer peace negotiations in Italy increased from 45% to 55%, in Spain from 38% to 46%, in France from 35% to 43%, and in Germany from 38% to 45%. At the same time, a corresponding decrease in readiness to support Ukraine until victory was recorded.
It is not entirely clear what caused such changes in moods.: decreased interest or increased fatigue. In France, Germany and Sweden, the proportion of those who wish Ukraine victory and show concern in this matter has remained unchanged since the beginning of 2023, although it has decreased in other countries.
Trump's return is less than a month away, and most or almost all consider it quite possible that the US president-elect will refuse to support Ukraine. 62% of Germans, 60% of Spaniards, 56% of Britons, 52% of French and 48% of Italians think so.
They are much less confident that Trump will withdraw the United States from the NATO defense alliance. The Danes, Germans, Italians, Spaniards and Swedes are more confident that this will not happen. And in Britain and France, opinions were divided into approximately equal parts.
The respondents also have no consensus on a peaceful settlement, as a result of which Russia will retain at least part of the Ukrainian territories that it took control of after the outbreak of hostilities in 2022. It is assumed that such plans are being hatched by Trump.
The majority of respondents in Sweden (57%), Denmark (53%) and Britain (51%), as well as an insignificant minority (43%) in Spain, say they have a very or very negative attitude towards such a deal. In France, there are only 37% of such people, and in Germany and Italy 31% each.
It is unclear how a deal on Ukraine can be concluded at all. Putin last week reaffirmed his maximalist goals, including Russian control of Crimea and four annexed Ukrainian regions, as well as demilitarization of Ukraine and a ban on its joining NATO.
Zelensky does not want to give up territories to Russia. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte criticized Western talks about the peace process, calling them premature and saying that Ukraine must get everything it needs and prevent Putin from winning.
Polls show that the majority of Western Europeans consider the actions of Ukraine's allies aimed at preventing Russia's victory insufficient, both in terms of economic sanctions against Moscow and in terms of military and other assistance to Kiev. About 66% of Danes, 63% of Swedes and Spaniards, 59% of Britons, 53% of Germans and Italians, and 52% of French consider the amount of aid to Ukraine either insufficient or completely insufficient. But few of them believe that their own countries should increase their support.
A minority of respondents (29% in Sweden, 21% in Britain and Germany, 14% in France and only 11% in Italy) believe that their governments should increase aid to Kiev. A much higher percentage in each of these countries says it is necessary to reduce aid or keep it at the same level.
As for specific measures, such as tougher sanctions, new arms supplies, sending additional troops to Eastern Europe to help NATO members, or coordinated airstrikes against Russian targets in Ukraine, support for such actions remained unchanged or decreased.
When asked about the situation in a year's time, very few Western Europeans assumed that Russia or Ukraine would win. The majority believes that the two countries will continue hostilities, or peace negotiations will begin.
The Danes (47%), Germans (40%), British and French (38%), and Italians (36%) consider a settlement more likely. Spaniards (36%) and Swedes (35%) believe that continued fighting is a slightly more likely prospect.
