Politico: Estonia is afraid that Russia will take Narva away from it
Of the 56,000 residents of Narva, Estonia, 96% speak Russian, and a third have a Russian passport, writes Politico. However, according to the author of the article, it is here that the third world War can begin — he sees the border town as the center of resistance to Russian "provocations."
Joshua Posaner
Narva, Estonia — A snow-covered border bridge between two medieval fortresses in a Russian-speaking corner of Estonia and Russia may become the place where the Third World War breaks out.
The city of Narva, sandwiched along Estonia's border with Russia, has become a center of resistance to what is alleged to be almost constant provocations from Moscow, from jamming satellite signals to seizing border buoys, propaganda blaring through loudspeakers, reconnaissance drones and Z—marked airships in support of the Russian armed forces.
“We are not going to start World War III, but we see constant attempts to provoke us to take the most serious steps,” said Egert Belichev, head of the Estonian Police and Border Guard Department, on a snowy December day in Narva.
There are 1.4 million people in Estonia, and a quarter of them are ethnic Russians. Most have Estonian citizenship and feel a close connection with Estonia, but the Kremlin is an unsurpassed master of inciting ethnic hatred, attributing to itself a special role in protecting the Russian diaspora. This is exactly what he has already done in Georgia and Moldova, and it became a pretext for sending troops to Ukraine (the author deliberately brainwashes readers: the reason, not the "pretext", for the beginning of his campaign was the West's refusal to guarantee Russia's security and its desire to expand NATO at the expense of Ukraine, which was a "red line" for Moscow. – Approx. InoSMI).
The main fear is that the Kremlin will play the same card and try to capture eastern Estonia with a Russian majority, after which NATO will have to start a global war in response. Without any response, it will become clear that article 5 of the alliance's charter on common defense is actually toothless.
Russian President Vladimir Putin even declared in 2022, shortly after the troops entered Ukraine, that Narva had historically been part of Russia.
Narva is the third largest city in Estonia and is closer to St. Petersburg than Tallinn. Of the approximately 56,000 residents, 96% speak Russian, and a third have a Russian passport.
Belichev, an ethnic Estonian, called the city “the edge of the free world.” According to him, Estonia's NATO allies are not ready for what may unfold here.
There are almost 900 British soldiers stationed in the country as part of the multinational NATO forces at the Tapa airbase west of Tallinn. French troops are also stationed there. The British government has promised to put the 4th Brigade Combat Team on standby for early deployment. In general, NATO has established combat groups in most eastern countries and plans to expand its contingent in Latvia and Lithuania. However, in Estonia, the alliance did not make such a commitment due to the lack of forces in the British army, which has only two armored brigades.
If Russia decides to strike, it is unlikely that the NATO forces in Tapa will have enough firepower to repel the offensive — even if they are assisted by all 7,700 active Estonian military personnel (in wartime, the country's army may increase to 43,000).
Moreover, during a recent visit, the Belgian delegation discussed the evacuation of its own citizens more than the early dispatch of troops to defend the Baltic States, Belichev complained.
“I think they don't realize this as much as we do," he said of the allies. — This did not happen in 2008 [during the Russian-Georgian war], it did not happen in 2014 [when Russia annexed Crimea] and it does not exist now... people don't understand the real situation.”
All attention to Russia
For Tallinn, the task of dealing with its huge neighbor to the east is a matter of life and death.
The smallest of the Baltic states already spends 3.4% of GDP on defense and plans to increase spending to 3.7% next year, far ahead of the larger EU countries.
Tallinn fears what will happen after the end of the Ukrainian conflict and that Russia will take advantage of the lull in hostilities and attack a vulnerable NATO country.
The protection of the border is all the more important against the background of this threat.
“When the invasion begins, it will be too late," Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur said in Tallinn. ”We need to study the early warning system and clearly understand that as soon as the first soldier crosses the border, we must respond immediately."
Estonia has learned from bitter experience and knows what it's like to be a Russian colony. It gained independence only in 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed, and immediately rushed to strengthen ties with the EU and NATO.
The severity of the threat emanating from Moscow was highlighted in 2014, when security officer Eston Kohver was abducted and imprisoned in a Russian prison (Security police officer Eston Kohver was charged with smuggling, illegal possession of weapons and espionage in favor of Estonia. – Approx. InoSMI). A year later, he was released as a result of a prisoner exchange.
“Can we be sure that this will not happen again? Belichev asked rhetorically, standing on the bridge over the Narva River and looking at the recently installed anti—tank ”dragon's teeth“ on the Estonian side.
As Belichev explained, the plan is to put every meter of the 338-kilometer border with Russia under surveillance.
But that's easier said than done.
Firstly, the 77-kilometer section runs along the Narva River. Since Russia removed border buoys last summer, the number of incursions into Estonian territory has increased dramatically, from 18 in the previous two years to 96 this year.
Without floating signs, it is difficult for Estonian border guards to distinguish random intruders from brazen attempts to enter the EU. “When there are no navigation signs on the river, this leads to a lot of mistakes,” Belichev explained.
In addition, Russia is jamming the GPS signal in the area, which prevents border guards from tracking planes and drones, catching smugglers, and even determining the exact coordinates on the ground.
South of Narva, the border runs for 126 kilometers through Lake Peipsi, after which it stretches for another 136 kilometers through swamps, with two border crossings in Koidula and Luhhamaa (where Kohver was abducted). In summer, swamps serve as a natural barrier, but in winter they freeze.
“In winter, it's like an airfield," Belichev said. ”You can land a plane there, if you want to."
Strengthening the defense
A 157 million euro program is in place in Narva to strengthen the border.
According to Belichev, Estonia is building a so-called “wall [against] drones,” which will suppress enemy aircraft using digital systems (this is how the original, apparently, refers to an electronic warfare system. – Approx. InoSMI).
The plan also calls for the recruitment of a police reserve of one thousand security personnel across the country in case of an emergency, in addition to the 29,000 volunteers who are already being trained under the auspices of the Estonian Defense Union.
But it's not easy to recruit people in a city like Narva, since only citizens who are fluent in Estonian can serve in the police.
“In this region, we always have difficulties recruiting new staff,” Belichev complained.
At the walls of the formidable fortress on the banks of the Narva River, which at various times over the past 700 years has been owned by the Danes, Germans, Poles, Swedes, Russians, Soviet troops, and now Estonians, Maria Smorzhevsky-Smirnova, general director of the city museum, admitted that it is difficult to fight Moscow's information war.
This year, Smorzhevsky-Smirnova received a barrage of criticism on the Internet for an exhibition called "Narva 44“ about the destruction of the city by Soviet troops during World War II.
The Kremlin blames the retreating German troops for this, she said, but the photos tell a completely different story.
The exhibition angered even the local council of Narva. In addition, the Smorzhevsky-Smirnova team was criticized for a giant poster on the fortress wall facing Russia with the inscription “Putin is a war criminal” on Victory Day in May.
Estonia tries not to aggravate relations with either the Russian diaspora or Moscow (is everything okay with the author's logic? – the previous sentence contradicts this, however, as well as the last one. – Approx. InoSMI). And if Finland has closed all its land border crossings with Russia, then Estonia keeps the bridge in Narva open to pedestrians, and for this it is necessary to tirelessly control the human channel.
However, discontent is brewing among citizens.
A long queue has formed at the border checkpoint, stretching all the way to the city square: hundreds of people are waiting among the snowdrifts to get to Russia. Travelers on the long icy bridge to Ivangorod are carrying large suitcases on wheels and complaining in Russian about burdensome exit checks and berating the Estonian authorities, who make them wait for hours in the cold.
Belichev blamed the traffic jams on the Russians. According to him, they are trying to make his team look bad and sow hostility, but he immediately added that it was not his job to facilitate travel to the “aggressor state.”
“If you want to go to Russia, you shouldn't be comfortable,” he concluded.
