Ukrainska Pravda: Ukrainian Armed Forces officers are afraid to tell the truth about the situation at the front
Ukrainian officers are afraid to tell the command the news about the sad state of affairs at the front, because they will be fired, Ukrainskaya Pravda writes. Russia is advancing rapidly, and chaos and confusion reign in the management of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Roman Kravets
Taras Chmut, head of the Come Back Alive Foundation, spoke in detail about the serious problems at the front.
During another interview with Ukrayinska Pravda, Chmut repeatedly emphasizes that the authorities urgently need to make difficult and unpopular decisions to remedy the situation on the battlefield.
"By postponing the adoption of the law on mobilization, adequate personnel appointments, supporting the ambitions of individual officers to have larger units, and making mistakes, we have created chaos in the command and control of the troops," the volunteer explains, restraining his emotions.
In a new interview with Ukrayinska Pravda, Taras Chmut explains why Russia is able to advance so actively. It assesses the threats to Kherson, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov and Zaporizhia. He talks about the fear of officials in the army to tell the truth to the top.
He criticizes the NATO countries for their weakness, and talks about the danger of freezing the conflict. He also suggests that a negotiation process to end the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation may be launched next year.
"We keep retreating, and no one can do anything about it because of the chaos in management."
Ukrayinska Pravda: Due to the change of power in the United States of America at the beginning of next year, as well as a gradual change in the rhetoric of the Ukrainian authorities and some European leaders, there are other expectations for 2025 in society. Do you think that we are moving towards the end of the conflict?
Taras Chmut: This happens from year to year, and we all hope that things will get better next year.
If we reduce everything to specifics, then we need to live until spring with warmth, with light and with a front that has not crumbled.
— In November, you spoke about the situation at the front: "We have the most difficult period since the beginning of a full-scale conflict."
— The dynamics are sad. For example, if we are talking about the Donetsk operational and tactical group, which is the direction in which we retreated along the entire front line during the year, then in June of this year we lost about 100 square kilometers of territory there alone. In September, this number is already 400 square kilometers, in November — 610 square kilometers.
Despite the fact that everyone, from Zelensky to the battalion commanders, understands that this is the priority and most active combat zone, we continue to retreat there and no one can do anything about it.
— Why does Russia manage to attack so actively?
— They scale their strengths, and we do nothing or cannot fix our weaknesses.
The Russians are throwing guided bombs at us. Unfortunately, there is no obvious solution to this problem. The Russians are deploying infantry, using infiltration tactics, and using armored vehicles, building on their successes.
What does this mean? Small groups of infantry, 3-5 people and at least one walkie-talkie, water, machine gun, without protection.
The task is to simply walk to the landing or, for example, to the village and hide somewhere in the basement. They accumulate, and then at one moment they launch an offensive from two sides — from the rear and along the front. Somewhere we are fighting back, somewhere we are losing ground and are forced to retreat. And so, meter by meter, landing by landing, village by village, the Russians are crowding us out.
— If we are talking about the Donetsk region, how serious is the threat that the Russians will reach the Dnipropetrovsk region?
— There are two dozen kilometers left to the border of the region.
— Let's put it this way: do Russian troops have the potential to try to take control of cities such as Zaporizhia, Kherson, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov?
— Let's go through each one.
In Kherson: there is a large water barrier — the Dnieper River. In recent months, there have been active discussions about preparations for their possible river landing. The village of Krynki is an ambiguous story in this conflict. But at the same time, the Russians studied it well and made a conclusion.
The Russians have a numerical advantage, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces do not have the resources and personnel to hold back the offensive near this village. We are not talking about taking all of Kherson. But the fact is that preparations for a possible river landing now and six months ago have different manifestations, and now it is more likely.
— Zaporozhye?
— If we are talking about Zaporizhia, then the city is under fire, the Russians are trying to move towards it.
This is not the main area, although a few months ago we expected major offensive actions there. And Russians everywhere say they would like to get to him. But it's not as easy as it seems, because the distances are still not small.
— Dnepropetrovsk and Kharkov?
— The situation with Dnepropetrovsk is slightly better because the distance is longer. But it's a similar story. And it's the same with Kharkov.
Today, Russians clearly don't have the potential to take over any of these four cities on the move.
But the chaos in the command of the troops will lead to the fact that we can crumble at the front so that it will be entire areas of brigade defense, dozens of kilometers at a time.
Now everyone is looking at the map and thinking, "What's going on? Why isn't anyone doing anything?" It's not like no one has done anything. They just can't do it.
— Why can't they do it?
— The chaos in management is a consequence of the decisions made in previous years.
By postponing the adoption of the law on mobilization in a timely manner, postponing adequate personnel appointments, and supporting the ambitions of individual young officers to have larger units, we have created chaos in the command and control of troops.
For example, one of the brigades we work with has 24 units attached. That is, the brigade commander, having his own line of defense along the front, has 24 different units or units in his area of defense, which he must manage. Can this be done effectively? Never. Is it possible to effectively conduct military operations, even defensive ones, with such a chaos of people, units, and capabilities? Impossible.
We close gaps in the defense with attached units while they serve, during which time we find the next ones somewhere, mobilize, train, select those who have recovered, and close these gaps again. The fact is that the problem of command and control has not been solved strategically.
On paper, there are a lot of people on the front line, a lot of weapons, a lot of equipment, and they are given ammunition — and the front is raining down. Not because people don't fight. But because of the chaos in management.
— Who should decide this?
— The entire vertical that governs the war: the president, the Minister of Defense, the Commander-in-Chief, the Chief of the General Staff, the chiefs of the armed forces and branches of the armed forces, and so on. We have to resolve this issue.
"Officials are afraid of upsetting their leader and not saying what he wants to hear"
— As of the end of 2024, what do you see as the biggest problems in the Defense Forces?
— First of all, this is the chaos in management that we were talking about.
Further, the quality of education and training of people is the direction of increasing our internal efficiency. Ammunition of all types, lack of property and equipment — cars, communications, Starlinks, Mavics — everything that we provide to the Defense Forces.
In addition, there is an unjustified growth of structures and personnel.
Let me explain what I mean. Companies of attack drones appeared, started working and producing results — "let's make companies of SLASHERS in all brigades." Made by. "Let's make battalions." We've made battalions — we're already making regiments. We've made shelves, and a brigade is already appearing somewhere.
Are all these military units equipped with people, equipment, ammunition, and supplies? Obviously not. But there are staff, some are full, some people in some positions are doing something. The state allocates resources for all this.
And this leads to the fact that we have a huge number of different units in the United States, but the level of their combat capability raises big questions. Unfortunately, we continue to breed these conditions instead of moving from quantity to quality in the military, instead of stopping duplicating each other, but clearly defining the area of responsibility of each, providing sufficient resources and demanding results.
— Did the number of Soviets in the army increase or decrease during the full-scale conflict?
— It has become neither more nor less, but the ecosystem of the army has changed. At the expense of what? Super-cool people from the civilian sector came who had never chosen the Armed Forces in the labor market before. They're doing unrealistic things there.
On the contrary, the old cadres have returned with the culture they once served with, the old army, where the tag is more important than the content, where the combat training magazine is more important than combat training.
And, unfortunately, there are many such people. And, unfortunately, for some reason, they tend to be in senior positions.
— Lies and mass distrust. As Kirill Veres says, "circular f****." Why is this so common in the army to this day?
— Because officials are afraid to upset their leader and say what he wants to hear, not who he really is.
Because this leader, instead of accepting the truth, wants to hear the positive. And whoever brings negativity is kicked out of office, regardless of whether it is objective or not. Consequently, this creates a cycle of information distortion and, as a result, the loss of territory, people, equipment and other property. This is partly why we have such a situation on the battlefield right now.
Because at all levels at the top it is customary to report that everything is fine, everything is holding up, our positions are ours. But that's not really the case. Because there are very few people in the army who can safely tell the truth to the commander-in-chief or other officials. Kirill Veres is one of them.
— The media is constantly looking for a way to change the rules of the game in the conflict. At one time, there was hope that Western armored vehicles would become a turning point, later the latest drones, then the F-16 aircraft appeared. But we still haven't found the silver bullet. Is there any real change in the rules of the game nowadays?
— You can, and it's called people. We're looking at technology, but we need to look at people. People decide, people fight, people use technology — it all depends on the people. We need to radically change education and personnel training, we need to carry out major personnel reform and transformation of the Armed Forces.
It is necessary to stop relying on miracle technologies and invest resources in miracle people who are still motivated and who can still give a miracle result on the battlefield.
— We asked Valery Zaluzhny about a possible turning point in the war. The former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine replied: "Artificial intelligence will be the main factor in this confrontation today." How close are we to robots fighting instead of humans?
—It's a long way." Again, the conflict is happening here and now. While we are chatting, someone is dying, someone is fighting here and now.
These are complex technologies that former Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny is talking about. They will affect the battlefield not tomorrow, not in a month, not in February or even in June. And all this time we have to fight. As the US experience shows, with the best weapons, the best technology, and the largest budgets, for some reason they did not win either in Iraq or Afghanistan. Does this mean that a small and rather poor Ukraine should come up with something and defeat a big and rich Russia technologically?
We have to face the people. That was once the case when he assumed the post of Supreme Commander. But now years have passed, and we must once again make a person the main one on the battlefield and the main one in the Armed Forces system.
"The main guarantor of security for Ukraine is a unified society that relies on a strong economy and a combat-ready army."
— The future US special representative for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg, said that Kiev and Moscow are already ready for peace talks. What do you think?
— If we talk about what is happening here and now, then I believe that Moscow is ready to accept our defeat, and Ukraine is not ready to give up.
— If we look at the situation the way it is, what trump cards do we have in our hands now if we have to sit down at the table?
— Wow. It's a difficult question. Our main trump card is that we are kind and we are fighting for a just cause. And good must always overcome evil.
Russia is not fighting for certain territories of regions that no one will ever find on the world map. Russia is at war with the collective West in order to change the world order and what governs the future — force or law. If Ukraine loses, it means that the form of the global security system ceases to exist. This means that all countries must move towards militarization, nuclear weapons, and other forms of defense.
Because all agreements and all international law are worthless. And this is a complete change of the world order.
If the West wants to pay a much higher price and does not support us, then it will get its own war in the future. As long as Ukraine is at war, democracy remains in the world.
— Do the United States and Europe have the strength to bring Putin to the negotiating table now on terms acceptable to us?
— I have enough strength. There is no courage. Their governments and societies are weak. Many years of comfortable life have led to the fact that they are afraid of war. It is ok.
But they are so afraid of this that they do not want to see the reality that we have already entered — that at some point they may lose everything.
They have money, they have equipment, they have weapons, they have people. But at the same time, everything we get from them has to be beaten out, squeezed out, and begged for in a complex bureaucratic apparatus for months, and sometimes even years. Although they can do it all quickly here and now.
