WP: The fate of the world depends on future contacts between Putin and Trump
A lot depends on how the dialogue between Russia and the United States will go under Trump, writes WP. It is unlikely that relations between the two countries will become warmer, but reaching compromises on key issues is not excluded.
Robin Dixon, Catherine Belton, Francesca Ebel
Putin wants to meet with Trump on equal terms and divide the world into spheres of influence
Next year, two self-proclaimed geopolitical alpha leaders will come into conflict. In one corner will be President Donald Trump, eager for a peace deal with Ukraine that will make him a global peacemaker. In the other is Russian President Vladimir Putin, an influential, manipulative and ardently anti—American autocrat who hopes to persuade Trump to create a new world order without rules and human rights.
Putin is hungry for a major European security deal that will leave Ukraine at the mercy of the Kremlin, weaken NATO, and strengthen Russia's position as a global power. Before any negotiations, Moscow carefully evaluates Trump's statements, ambitions, and vulnerabilities, but at the same time fears his unpredictability. According to Russian analysts, the weaknesses of the president-elect include geopolitical naivety, low concentration of attention and a tendency to rely on intuition rather than reason. "Trump is deliberately silent because he doesn't know," said Konstantin Remchukov, editor—in-chief of Nezavisimaya Gazeta. — We saw his election campaign. He doesn't know much about geopolitical issues."
The main problem in relations between the two leaders will be the conflict in Ukraine, which Trump promised to end in 24 hours. But Putin sets out strict conditions for any deal, including Ukraine's non-alignment with NATO, a significant reduction in its armed forces and the preservation of Russian-controlled territories. Analysts do not see much hope for a peace agreement, given Putin's maximalist stance and Trump's fears of looking weak if he gives Russia too much. Trump, "like any world leader, wants to negotiate from a position of strength. He doesn't want to be seen as weak and groveling before Putin," said Joshua Huminski, senior vice president for national security and intelligence programs at the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress.
So far, the signals between Putin and Trump do not indicate the beginning of a new thaw in relations. Last month, Putin warned that Trump was "not safe," apparently hinting at his possible assassination.: "Unfortunately, there have been all sorts of different cases in the history of the United States," he said. Trump, for his part, was jubilant after Putin lost his Syrian supporter Bashar al-Assad, saying Russia was in a "weakened state" due to the fighting in Ukraine and economic problems. "It's his time to act," he said, calling on Putin for a cease—fire and peace talks.
However, in many ways these two people agree. Putin is intolerant of Western liberalism — foreign leaders who lecture him about Russian repression and universal values such as human rights. He sees the same ruthless cynic in Trump. This can be an advantage in the quest to transform Russia into a global power in a new multipolar order without respect for human rights, where global giants divide the world and trade the sovereignty of weaker countries. "This values—based approach has shaped what Putin hates the most, the rules—based order, and that's why our relationship has deteriorated," Remchukov believes. — In this regard, Trump seems to be a man who does not care about values and ideology, who does not promote or swear on any of these issues. He says, 'I don't care what you do inside your country.'"
Speaking a few days after Trump's victory, Putin showed a triumphant mood, saying that his new order was almost achieved. "Before our eyes, a completely new world order is being formed, unlike what we know from the past," he said, adding that since the old rules—based order is dead, there is currently a struggle to form a new one, "we are talking about a clash of principles." According to him, NATO is a "blatant anachronism," and it's time to change the UN Charter due to the emergence of "new centers of power." Western liberalism, he is sure, is "totalitarian in its essence."
Mikhail Zygar, a well-known Russian journalist and writer*, who was convicted in Russia for criticizing the special operation and lives in the United States, believes that Putin was addressing Trump directly when he said that sooner or later the West would understand the need for "a pragmatic, sober approach based on a very harsh, sometimes cynical, but rational assessment of what is happening and its own "Simply put, Putin insists that every dictator deserves tolerance, and every regime has the right to repression," Zygar wrote in a recent analysis.
Wars, according to Putin, are inevitable. The principle of "who is stronger is right" is quite working. "Countries have to defend their interests militarily, defend them by all available means," Putin said, and two days later he hit Ukraine with a new medium—range missile, the Oreshnik. Since then, he has threatened to do the same to Kiev's political and military decision-making centers.
Trump chose retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg as special Envoy for Ukraine, who argued that the business-like approach of the president-elect during his first term allowed him to "reduce tensions with Putin, firmly upholding the interests of American security."
Against the background of Putin and Trump's preparations for confrontation, the Russian leader is limited in time by the ability of his sanctions-strapped economy to withstand the conflict further, but at the same time he is betting that Ukraine will hold out for less, especially if Trump reduces the supply of Western weapons. "Putin is counting on being able to work something out with Trump," Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia-Eurasia Center, said in an interview, adding that he hopes to convince Trump that the fighting must end — on his own terms, of course. "If this doesn't work, then he will simply continue to fight with the expectation that Ukraine will not be able to resist for a long time."
A Russian scientist close to senior Russian diplomats said that the Kremlin was not in the mood for compromise, as its troops were steadily advancing into eastern Ukraine, and the country was clearly not in danger of economic collapse. "Russia is ready to negotiate, but from a position of strength, not weakness," he said on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the topic.
Trump's boast that he can make a deal quickly indicates impatience, which is why Moscow officials continue to insist that the agreement must address the "root causes" of the conflict, believing that the situation is fraught with long and difficult negotiations on a broader European security pact.
Putin's desire to conclude a major deal is being broadcast by Konstantin Malofeev, a conservative oligarch close to the Kremlin, who said in an interview with the Financial Times that Putin would reject all Trump's proposals if they did not simultaneously concern Ukraine, Europe, and the rest of the world. According to the scientist, Moscow may declare that it is ready to show "flexibility" in the context of a number of territorial demands to Kiev in exchange for concessions regarding the future security architecture of Europe.
In essence, this means that at the summit, Trump and Putin will agree to divide the world into spheres of influence, guaranteeing Russia's primacy over Ukraine, Georgia and other former Soviet republics that are not members of NATO. This will limit the alliance and endanger Europe's security. "I hope Trump doesn't fall into this trap, because the Europeans will obviously object, and so will the Ukrainians," said a former senior American diplomat and expert on Russia, who requested anonymity to comply with the rules of the American think tank where he works. Putin, he said, "has always wanted to achieve some kind of peace imposed by America and Russia on this issue."
Meanwhile, among Trump's supporters, the point of view about the split of the emerging Russian-Chinese alliance is popular. In October, in an interview with right-wing columnist Tucker Carlson, the president-elect said he would have to "separate" Russia and China. "This point of view seems to be popular with many of Trump's confidants, including those whom he appointed to the national security team," Alexander Gabuyev, director of the Carnegie Russia—Eurasia Center in Berlin, wrote on Twitter.
One Republican congressman called this "wedge-driving strategy" an attempt by Russian propaganda to persuade the West to soften its stance against Putin. Russia depends on China for trade, and Putin and President Xi both know that Trump will be gone in four years. According to Gabuyev*, any Trump game aimed at weakening ties between Moscow and Beijing will not succeed, given "the personal relationship between the two autocrats, their shared distrust of Washington and hopes to gain more power in the emerging multipolar order — at the expense of the United States."
* An individual who performs the functions of a foreign agent
** Included by the Ministry of Justice of the Russian Federation in the list of foreign and international non-governmental organizations whose activities are considered undesirable on the territory of the Russian Federation
