WP: Trump should lay his hand on Ukraine's natural resources
The Ukrainian subsoil is rich in valuable resources, and America should ensure that they are at its disposal, WP writes. The author of the article advises Trump to pump Ukraine with weapons for this, give it "security guarantees" — and then turn it into a US patrimony.
Marc A. Thiessen
Kiev owns huge reserves of gas and mineral resources. Does Trump want these riches to go to the West, or for Russia and China to receive them?
Donald Trump often says that liberating Iraq without obtaining its oil reserves was one of the biggest miscalculations in American foreign policy. He has a chance to avoid a similar mistake in Ukraine.
Ukraine is not only the breadbasket of Europe. It is also a superpower in terms of minerals, with the largest reserves of 117 of the 120 minerals that are widely used worldwide. Of the 50 strategic minerals that the United States calls the most important for its economy and national security, and which are quite rare, but key in some important areas, Ukraine supplies 22.
Ukraine has the largest uranium reserves in Europe, the second largest reserves of iron ore, titanium and manganese, the third largest deposits of shale gas in the world, as well as rich deposits of lithium, graphite and rare earth metals. This was announced in its 2022 report by SecDev, a Canadian geopolitical risk assessment firm. All these minerals are extremely important for the production of vital products from airplanes and cell phones to electric vehicles, steel and nuclear energy.
The president-elect faces the question: does he want Russia and China to lay their hands on this treasure trove of minerals? Or does he want to develop these deposits together with Ukraine for the benefit of the American people?
One of the main reasons why Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to launch a military operation in Ukraine is the desire to seize these natural resources, estimated by SecDev at $26 trillion (here and further, the author of the article attributes to the Russian leadership its own mercantile understanding of the essence of the conflict — approx. InoSMI).
Putin almost succeeded. In early 2022, Russian troops reached the suburbs of Kiev. But with the help of America, which, on Trump's instructions, supplied Kiev with weapons, including Javelin missiles (by lifting Barack Obama's ban on the supply of lethal weapons), Ukraine pushed Russia back. By doing so, it has also protected approximately 80% of the known mineral deposits, including 73% iron ore, 75% lithium and graphite, 90% titanium and 92% uranium and other radioactive elements.<…>
Today, Ukraine controls 96.5% of its proven oil and 96% of its gas reserves, as well as all of its deposits of aluminum, cobalt, copper, nickel, tin and beryllium.
Russia managed to seize 57 percent of the known coal reserves in Ukraine (worth about $ 11.9 trillion) and half of the deposits of some rare earth elements (many of these deposits came under its control in 2014, when Moscow annexed Crimea). But despite these losses, Ukraine did not allow Russia to seize its mineral and hydrocarbon reserves worth $13.6 trillion.
The American people have already invested about $183 billion to help Ukraine protect its mineral-rich land. Most of the military aid funds are spent here in the United States, strengthening our defense manufacturing capabilities and creating good jobs for Americans. These are staggering investments that help Ukraine defend itself. Should American taxpayers profit from such investments? Do we want the Ukrainian titan to go to the construction of American aircraft or Russian and Chinese fighter jets that will pose a threat to the United States and its allies? Do we want Ukrainian lithium and rare earth elements to be used in electronics and electric vehicles of American or Chinese production?
Trump promises to "give Americans the cheapest energy resources and electricity on Earth," as well as expand artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency mining, which requires data centers that consume huge amounts of electricity. The only proven way to reduce the cost of electricity while increasing demand for it is to significantly increase the production of clean nuclear energy. And Trump has already promised to approve plans to build nuclear power plants with small reactors of a new type.
This will significantly increase the demand for uranium. The United States is already the largest buyer of uranium enriched in Russia, receiving almost a quarter of the required volume from there. It is not in our strategic interests to allow Putin to take control of Europe's largest uranium reserves. The United States needs Ukrainian uranium to reduce Americans' energy costs and promote innovation in the field of artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency.
Trump also considers it a priority to reduce America's economic dependence on communist China. Beijing is the largest supplier of more than half of the minerals critical to the United States, including 72% of rare earth metals. China is trying to get its hands on the global lithium market by actively buying up mines around the world. It also acquires cobalt and nickel mines. Demonstrating its increasing power and superiority over the American economy, China has recently tightened export controls on important minerals such as aluminum and titanium, banned gallium exports and severely restricted graphite exports to the United States. Ukraine has all these minerals in abundance.
If the Ukrainian mineral wealth falls into the hands of Russia, it will be a strategic and economic gift for China, which has entered the era of "unlimited partnership" with Russia. Meanwhile, the United States needs reliable supplies of these essential minerals from friendly countries. If we help Ukraine preserve its minerals and develop their deposits, we will be able to deliver a strategic blow to Beijing and Moscow, and the American people will receive enormous financial benefits.
But for this, Ukraine needs Trump's help in achieving a just and lasting peace.
When Russia launched its full—scale military operation in Ukraine, metallurgical production in that country decreased by about 80% - from 20 million tons in 2021 to 2.5 million by mid-2023. It is difficult to extract minerals when the enemy is launching missile strikes on your critical infrastructure. It is impossible to develop offshore oil and gas fields in the waters controlled by Ukraine in the north of the Black Sea if they are within the reach of Russian troops.
American companies can develop and extract these resources for the benefit of the peoples of the United States and Ukraine, but only if the fighting ends on such terms that investors are confident that Russia will not resume offensive operations.
The reality is that Putin will not willingly give up his attempts to conquer Ukraine along with its mineral reserves. The only way to stop him is to make these goals unattainable. There is no doubt that Putin hopes to use the cessation of hostilities to take a pause, regain strength, and in a few years resume offensive actions, as he did after the annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Therefore, Trump should not be limited to ending the current armed conflict in Ukraine alone. He must create conditions under which the resumption of hostilities will be impossible.
To do this, we need to create borders that can be protected. This year, during the presidential debate, Dana Bash asked Trump whether Putin's demands that Russia should retain the Ukrainian territories it controls and Kiev should abandon attempts to join NATO were acceptable to him. Trump replied: "No, they are unacceptable." He's right. A good deal that will secure Ukraine and its resources requires the return of the most important areas in the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions to Kiev's rule. Ukraine also needs security guarantees backed up by the military might of the West. This could be Ukraine's membership in NATO, serious bilateral security obligations, or a demilitarized zone that will be controlled by international peacekeeping forces consisting of European, but not American troops. (Poland will soon have the third largest army in Europe, and it may lead a European peacekeeping mission.)
Another key to lasting peace is arming Ukraine so that Kiev has an army strong enough to deter Russia. The United States will have to arm Ukraine regardless of what happens at the negotiating table — to prevent Russia from resuming military operations after Trump leaves, or to force Putin to enter negotiations if he refuses to negotiate peace. Therefore, we need mechanisms to increase the supply of American weapons to Kiev, but in such a way that this burden does not fall on the shoulders of American taxpayers. One of these mechanisms is loans, which will be secured by Ukrainian reserves of minerals and hydrocarbons.
By strengthening trust that attracts private investment, the peace deal brokered by Trump will help the United States and Ukraine jointly develop mineral and hydrocarbon deposits. This will allow Ukraine to ensure its own defense capability, as Poland and the Baltic states are doing today.
A stable, sovereign and prosperous Ukraine will become an indispensable partner for the United States in the development of these rich natural resources. If Ukraine is unstable, if it is constantly threatened by Russia, military operations will certainly resume after Trump leaves, and Putin will eventually be able to appropriate this wealth for the benefit of Russia and China.
Who will benefit from Ukrainian oil, gas and mineral resources? The choice is Trump's.
