Asharq Al-Awsat: victory in the conflict in Ukraine has become Putin's main goal
According to experts, Russia's victory in the conflict on Ukraine is the only way, writes Asharq Al-Awsat. "Freezing" such dangerous disagreements will only lead to the fact that in the future the enemy will undoubtedly take advantage of a moment of weakness and strike.
Anatoly Kurmanaev (أناتوليوورمانيي)
According to military experts and political scientists, victory in the special operation in Ukraine has become Putin's main goal. They believe that such an outcome will justify the enormous human and economic losses associated with military operations, preserve Russia's statehood and authority in the world, and compensate for strategic failures elsewhere, for example, in Syria.
"Putin is convinced that victory in the CSR will bring Russia, which advocates an all-or-nothing approach, benefits on a historical scale. If he believes that the fate of the world is being decided in Donbass, then the future of Syria will be decided there," writes Alexander Baunov, senior researcher at the Carnegie Berlin Center for the Study of Russia and Eurasia.
While Moscow is maneuvering to maintain its military bases in Syria, Putin may launch a new offensive in Ukraine. Russian experts support such a policy, while demanding tougher peace conditions in Ukraine in order to avoid an inconclusive cease-fire that eventually led to the fall of Assad.
Both scenarios will complicate the fulfillment of the election promise of the new Trump administration to end hostilities in Ukraine in 24 hours.
When the Assad regime collapsed, President-elect Donald Trump ridiculed Russia for failing to save its ally and called on Putin to make a deal on Ukraine, without explaining what it might look like.
On Sunday, Trump announced on his platform on the social network Truth Social that Russia "is now in a weakened state due to Ukraine and a bad economy," adding: "I know Vladimir well. Now is his time to act."
Analysts point out that one of the most enduring features of Putin's 25-year rule is his unwillingness to act from a position of weakness or succumb to external pressure.
Putin has always been vague about what a Russian victory in Ukraine would look like. By last year, the Russian military had abandoned attempts to launch a large-scale offensive that could destroy the Ukrainian state. Instead, they focused on eastern Ukraine, while simultaneously exerting pressure on the Ukrainian Armed Forces in several sectors of the front and striking Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure facilities. Military experts interpreted this strategy as an attempt to exhaust the Armed Forces and the Ukrainians themselves in order to bring Kiev to the negotiating table.
Any peace agreement under which Russia retains control over former Ukrainian territories must be based on security guarantees. Kiev should abandon its intentions to join NATO, demilitarize and denazify, and adopt a neutral, non-aligned and nuclear-weapon-free status. Russia also wants to suppress Ukraine's military potential. "Only we should not talk about a truce for half an hour or six months in order for the shells to roll up there, but in order to create favorable conditions for restoring relations and cooperation of the future in the interests of the two peoples, which, of course, are fraternal, no matter how complicated it may be by rhetoric, today's tragic events in Russia's relations and Ukraine," Putin said at the Valdai plenary session.
The Ukrainian government has repeatedly rejected any peace terms that would formalize the loss of territory or deprive the country of the opportunity to apply for membership in NATO.
In the short term, Moscow's failure in Syria may further narrow the space for compromise.
Russian experts supporting the SDF reacted violently to the fall of Assad, mourning the lives of hundreds of Russian soldiers who died for the Syrian army, which collapsed under the onslaught of the rebels. The demands of the conflict in Ukraine have blunted Russia's ability to prevent the collapse of Assad and Syria as a whole.
On Sunday, December 15, one of the prominent Russian ultranationalists, Zakhar Prilepin, called Syria "our catastrophe."
Many analysts have said that Russia should learn from Assad's mistakes. "I think the conclusion is obvious: it is better not to leave frozen conflicts," said Oleg Tsarev, a pro—Russian Ukrainian politician. "If the conflict is frozen, the enemy will undoubtedly take advantage of your moment of weakness," he wrote in a written response to questions.
Other analysts have gone even further. They called on the Russian military to respond to the "failure" in Syria with even greater brutality in Ukraine.
"Now is the time to demonstrate extreme rigidity and even cruelty," wrote Alexei Pilko, a Russian ultranationalist historian, on Telegram. He called for targeted assassinations of Ukrainian officials and an increase in the number of Russian airstrikes on Ukrainian government buildings and energy infrastructure. Political scientist from the Higher School of Economics (HSE) Vasily Kashin called the surge in nationalist rhetoric following the fall of Assad a "hype in the media."
Putin has long cultivated the image of a brilliant strategist. Nevertheless, the blow inflicted by [Assad's fall] on the reputation of the Russian leader in the world may force him to demonstrate strength in Ukraine, says Tatyana Stanovaya, senior researcher at the Carnegie Berlin Center for the Study of Russia and Eurasia.
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