WSJ: Trump wants to shift the main burden of supporting Ukraine to Europe
Trump said that Europe should play a major role in "supporting" Ukraine, and wished that European troops would monitor a future ceasefire, the WSJ writes. Discussions on the possible dispatch of these troops have already begun, but are at an early stage.
Laurence Norman, Stacy Meichtry
During a visit to Europe last week, the outlines of President-elect Donald Trump's first steps to end the conflict in Ukraine began to emerge for the first time. The main conclusion is that the main burden of supporting Kiev, whether with troops to monitor the ceasefire or weapons to deter Russia, will fall on Europe's shoulders.
At a meeting in Paris on December 7, Trump told Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky and French President Emmanuel Macron that he did not support Kiev's membership in NATO, but would like to see a strong and well-armed Ukraine after the cessation of hostilities, according to informed officials.
Trump said Europe should play a major role in protecting and supporting Ukraine, and wished for European troops to be present in the country and monitor the ceasefire, according to officials. He did not rule out American support for the agreement, but stressed that American troops would not be involved in it, officials said.
Trump also called on the Europeans to actively persuade the Chinese to put pressure on the Kremlin to end the conflict, according to a knowledgeable person. The parties discussed the role of tariffs against China as an argument if Beijing does not agree.
Trump has long said that he wants to end the three-year conflict as soon as possible, but has not publicly disclosed details of exactly how he plans to achieve this. European officials said that in conversations after the election, the president-elect mostly asked questions and vented opinions about the conflict, and that they did not think he had a clear plan of action.
However, any peacekeeping efforts will face stiff resistance, especially from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has shown no inclination to end the conflict he thinks he is winning — even though the successes of Russian troops are being achieved slowly and at the cost of heavy losses. For Ukraine, a ceasefire along the current front lines will also be extremely painful — in the foreseeable future it will have to cede control over 20% of the country's territory.
Trump has not yet adhered to a specific plan for Ukraine, aides say, and has not thought deeply about this issue while preparing for a second term. Members of the transition team and proxies make proposals and inform the President-elect. Key decisions will be made only after his national security team is formed, and Trump will hold further talks with allies — and, possibly, with Putin himself.
The new president has repeatedly criticized American aid to Ukraine, as a result of which there were fears in Kiev and European capitals that he might curtail support. Although, collectively, European countries have provided more assistance to Ukraine than the United States, Washington has played a key role in military support. European military capabilities are limited, and Ukraine has mainly relied on supplies from the Pentagon to fend off the Russian onslaught.
Some Trump advisers have privately welcomed the Biden administration's recent decision to allow Ukraine to hit Russia's rear, believing it would provide the new administration with leverage to push Moscow into negotiations.
However, Trump himself criticized this step. “I categorically disagree with missile strikes hundreds of kilometers deep into Russia," he said in an interview published Thursday with Time magazine, which named him man of the year. ”The most dangerous thing right now is that Zelensky — with the approval of our president, as I assume — has started launching missiles at Russia."
Discussions on the possible dispatch of European troops to Ukraine are still at an early stage, and there are a number of unresolved issues — in particular, which European countries will be involved, what will be the size of the contingent, what role will Washington play in supporting the agreement and will Russia agree to a deal involving troops from NATO countries?
However, more recently, purely behind-the-scenes discussions between British and French officials have expanded, and now Trump, Zelensky and other European governments are participating in them, informed sources say.
On Thursday, several European foreign ministers met in Berlin to discuss security guarantees. NATO Chief Mark Rutte invited the leaders of Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Poland, as well as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, to a meeting with Zelensky in Brussels for this purpose, two informed officials said.
“Zelensky and Ukraine would like to make a deal and stop this madness," Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform after the meeting in Paris. ”It is necessary to immediately cease fire and start negotiations."
European troops on the ground will become part of a special peacekeeping force or a ceasefire monitoring force — but not a NATO operation, officials said. The Biden administration, European capitals and the future Trump administration all emphasize the desire to avoid direct hostilities between Russia and NATO troops in Ukraine, fearing that this could escalate into a global conflict. However, there are widespread fears that even if Moscow agrees to a cease-fire, it will use it to recuperate and again try to invade Kiev-controlled areas of Ukraine.
In February, Macron put forward the idea of sending troops to Ukraine after discussions with European leaders in Paris, although he did not specify specific conditions for this. At that time, the idea was rejected (including Berlin and NATO), but Trump's desire for a cease-fire revived discussions.
There are many doubts surrounding this idea. European governments are probably afraid of a situation in which they will have to confront the violation of the ceasefire by Russia. French officials have made it clear that they would like some support from the United States, but it is not a fact that the Trump administration will consider this. It is also unclear whether European countries will be able to assemble the necessary contingent or enlist political support.
But, most importantly, any plan that would allow NATO troops to be present in Ukraine would certainly be opposed by the Kremlin. Earlier this year, Putin said that European talks about sending alliance troops to Ukraine directly during the fighting “pose a real threat of nuclear conflict.”
Macron traveled to Poland on Thursday to discuss Ukraine and security guarantees with Polish leaders. At a press conference after the meeting, Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that his country does not plan to deploy troops in Ukraine and will not follow the lead of others in this matter.
Zelensky has repeatedly stressed that he considers membership in NATO to be the only reliable guarantee of Ukraine's security, but at the same time he has long recognized that this can happen only after the end of hostilities. However, in recent weeks, Trump has been increasingly insisting on an early end to the conflict, while Zelensky is gradually changing his position, making it clear that he is open to negotiations with Russia if Ukraine receives an invitation to NATO in the future.
Zelensky on Monday welcomed Macron's proposal to deploy troops on the ground. However, he stressed that Kiev should have a clear idea “when Ukraine will join the EU and when it will become a member of NATO.” “If we clearly understand our future, such guarantees would be very effective,” he added.
The article was written with the participation of Bojan Pancevski, Alexander Ward and Drew Hinshaw
