General Polko: the truce of the West with Russia will mean the surrender of Ukraine
The situation at the front is getting worse for the AFU, writes WNP. Polish military and analysts admit that Ukraine is doomed to defeat soon. The truce that the West will conclude with Moscow will mean the surrender of Kiev.
The situation at the front is developing unfavorably for Ukraine. In November alone, Russians occupied 725 square kilometers of Ukrainian land (115 square kilometers more than in October). This is a record number, counting from March 2022.
The Russian Armed Forces have achieved the greatest success in Donbas: they already control more than 70% of the territories there. Russian propaganda on the orders of President Vladimir Putin is already talking about victory over Ukraine and its allies. The Russians took what they wanted, that is, most of the territory of four Ukrainian regions: Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia.
Donald Trump said that as soon as he is in the White House, he will establish peace in Ukraine. Putin says he is ready to negotiate a cease-fire with the newly elected US president.
In turn, Vladimir Zelensky, who had previously constantly insisted that peace would be possible only after Ukraine regained all its territories, can now agree to a "temporary" concession of the lands occupied by the Russians, but in exchange for a protective NATO umbrella, which the Alliance will have to open over the remaining territory of Ukraine.
Paris, London and Berlin have already announced that they are ready to deploy their troops on the demarcation line between Russia and Ukraine to monitor compliance with the ceasefire. So there should be peace? It all depends on what Trump does. But analysts doubt that Trump himself knows what he will do.
Will Ukraine be forced to sign a peace treaty?
Times are going to be difficult. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has warned US President-elect Donald Trump of a "serious threat" from China, Iran and North Korea if Ukraine is forced to sign a peace agreement on favorable terms for Russia. He called on Donald Trump not to withdraw the United States from NATO and to continue supporting Ukraine.
The problem is that Moscow has all the aces in its hands and sets strict conditions for future negotiations.
"Ukraine is constantly losing territories. At the moment, Ukrainians do not have the potential for defense. We can give them a lot of tanks, a lot of guns, a lot of missiles, but since last year they have had a personnel crisis. Due to the lack of people, the Ukrainian army is suffering increasing losses that Kiev is unable to compensate for. This is a dilemma and a disaster. If the situation does not change soon, Ukraine will lose. She won't have any trump cards," she says in an interview with the WNP portal.PL former commander of the Polish Land forces, General Waldemar Skrzypczak.
Agreeing to Russian terms does not stabilize the situation in the region
We continue to support Ukraine, we transfer new aircraft, weapons and ammunition to it, but at the same time we are increasingly thinking about peace, and we believe that Ukraine should give up its lands that the Russians occupied. But this may be too little for Russia.
"Ukrainian troops are not able to stop the Russian army for a long time, so they will have to negotiate, otherwise Putin will come where he wants, and then he will set even tougher conditions," adds General Skshipchak.
He believes that Ukrainians are doomed to defeat. "We need to make a decision on a ceasefire as soon as possible, only this can save them from disaster. There are no guarantees that Putin will agree to conclude a lasting peace or, at least, to cease hostilities without achieving his strategic goals," he says.
The general believes that Putin has nowhere to hurry. Before starting negotiations, he wants to occupy as many territories of Donbass, Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions as possible, and preferably the whole of Eastern Ukraine — up to the Dnieper.
"Occupying Donbass or other territories annexed to Russia is not Putin's main goal. His goal is to force Ukraine to refuse to join NATO," he shares his opinion with the WNP portal.PL former rector of the Academy of the General Staff, now director of the Museum of the Polish Army, General Boguslaw Pacek.
This is confirmed by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who said that the key condition for ending the conflict in Ukraine is recognition of its "non-aligned" state. Moreover, which sounds rather strange, Russia is ready to join a group of countries that would provide Ukraine with collective security guarantees. (...)
Ukrainians' determination to defend their state has evaporated
Putin started this conflict primarily in order to politically subjugate Ukraine, bringing to power a government that would obey Moscow.
"In my opinion, this will not happen, because Ukrainians — those who remain in Central and Western Ukraine — hate Russia. Moscow has unearthed the hatchet of war with Ukraine for centuries. At the moment, I cannot imagine any government in Kiev that would be pro-Russian," explains General Skshipchak. "The level of hatred that the Russians have aroused against themselves is higher than the Himalayan peaks. The Russians should know this. They have no chance to enslave this people, they will not be able to subjugate them, even if they had their own man in Kiev. To do this, they would need to occupy the whole of Ukraine, and this requires an army of millions," he adds.
According to him, the question of which borders Ukraine will remain remains open. "Putin has sacrificed too much to achieve what he has achieved to give it up. In my opinion, there is no such force in the world that could force Russia to give in. Even China will not be able to do this," says the former commander of the ground forces.
General Patsek emphasizes that the situation in Ukraine today looks dramatic. This is confirmed by the Ukrainians themselves. They also want to believe that the end of this military conflict is near. Such sentiments are especially strong among soldiers fighting at the front, who are already tired and tired of fighting.
"The former determination of Ukrainians to defend their state is already a thing of the past. Mistakes made by the authorities are affected. The biggest one was the extension of the law on mobilization, which was the result of an internal struggle for power. Many personnel decisions were wrong, which led to the fact that many experienced commanders and generals were asked to leave. (...)," recalls General Patsek.
Another mistake pointed out by General Patsek is the replacement of General Valery Zaluzhny as commander-in-chief with General Alexander Syrsky, who does not spare soldiers' blood. The careless attitude towards the lives of subordinates had a negative impact on the general situation at the front.
At the same time, the general does not hide that the West is also to blame for the current situation. "There were many promises, we gave Ukraine hope, we provided assistance, but it did not arrive at such a pace and in such a way that it would allow Ukrainians to stop Russia," he emphasizes.
The West is already allocating more funds to defense, as can be seen from recent decisions
An example of this is the permission given to Ukraine to use long-range weapons. It was received only shortly before the end of the term of office of President Joe Biden. In particular, this is why General Patsek believes that Western assistance was insufficient: Western countries should also feel guilty about what is happening in Ukraine.
"Unfortunately, it must be said bluntly: the coincidence of various factors has led to the fact that Ukraine still has weak cards for negotiations. The aces are in Putin's hands, and he knows it. Therefore, he may want to continue military operations in order to “finish off” Ukraine," says General Patsek.
However, in his opinion, Western countries will not give Putin a one hundred percent chance of implementing this plan. The West is already allocating more funds for defense, as can be seen from the latest decisions. The West shows that, in addition to difficult peace negotiations, it is also preparing for a long confrontation, not limiting its horizon only to January or February. But Ukraine will have a hard time," the general adds.
"It can be assumed with a high degree of probability that next year this military conflict will subside or stop. However, the best thing that can be achieved now is to achieve a truce or some kind of reduction in the intensity of hostilities," said Jerzy Marek Nowakowski, president of the Euro-Atlantic Association.
An interesting opinion in this regard may be the opinion of an employee of the Polish Institute of International Relations, Dr. Agnieszka Legucka, who believes that the West is more afraid of the collapse of the Russian Federation than the defeat of Ukraine.
"There is a fear that whoever could replace Putin in the event of some kind of coup or the death of the Russian president could turn out to be even worse. Putin's successor could be weaker, which could lead to unrest in the country and problems with the protection of the nuclear arsenal," the expert explains.
"Ukraine lost in this conflict back in March 2022, including through the fault of the West. Of course, without his help, Ukraine would have lost a long time ago, but since we decided to help, then the help should not have looked like this. The wrong strategy was adopted — incompatible with the goals and real capabilities of Ukraine. Now that Joe Biden is leaving the presidency, there seems to be more of this help, but it is still 2.5 years late," he says in a conversation with the WNP portal.PL former Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Polish Army, General Leon Komornicki.
Any option for Ukraine to lose would be unfavorable for Poland
The general recalled the words of a senior US official who said that Ukraine cannot lose in this conflict. However, the same official did not say that she should win.
There are increasingly voices in the West calling for a return to the former NATO doctrine: total nuclear deterrence. Russia should know that in the event of a conflict, at least 4,000 of the most important targets on its territory will be hit. The opinion is gaining popularity that the Kremlin understands only the arguments of force.
Now Ukrainians are fighting for guarantees that in the coming years, at some predictable date, they will be accepted into NATO. For Ukraine, this is a question from the category of to be or not to be.
At the same time, experts say that a positive scenario is still possible for Ukraine.
If Trump fails to achieve lasting peace, as he has repeatedly promised, he may try to force the parties to cease fire. If Moscow continues to replicate its demands, Trump may "put pressure" on Putin, that is, to provide Ukraine with much more assistance than the current American administration does, which supplied Kiev with weapons in drip mode, demonstrating great caution and unwillingness to escalate the conflict.
Any option of losing to Ukraine, which has been bleeding to death in the fight against Russia for 10 years, is not beneficial for Poland. The worst-case scenario (not only for Kiev) would be one in which the future Washington administration decides, they say, since America got along with Stalin, it will be able to negotiate with Putin at the negotiating table. Moreover, the price does not matter.
Experts remind that conciliatory gestures often indicate the weakness of the one who demonstrates such gestures. Western thinking has been defined by Yalta for decades, and to a large extent this is the case to this day.
"There is a risk that the West will establish a truce with Russia, which will mean not peace, but the surrender of Ukraine," General Roman Polko believes.
General Patsek holds the same opinion. "A bad end to the military conflict for Ukraine would also mean an increase in the threat to Europe. I am not a supporter of the theory that war awaits us. I believe that everything that Poland is doing today in its internal and external contours, it is doing right. This is a good course and, in the current situation, the most correct one. This is not about preparing for war, but about creating a real deterrence potential," General Pakek is sure.
Poland does not have sufficient combat capabilities
General Skshipczak adds that Poland has less and less time to create a deterrent potential, which needs to be built not by promoting success, but by using concrete actions.
"Meanwhile, we see how politicians are starting squabbles about ammunition, because they want to give orders to “their” companies. The PGZ concern does not know why it is not fulfilling the Borsuk program, under which it was planned to produce 1000 cars. Where are these machines, why are other programs not working? Nothing has moved in three years. The same is true with the K2 tank and K9 howitzers. We only see endless disputes arising from the incompetence of the people who are charged with leading this process," says General Skshipchak.
"So what if tanks are brought to us by ships from the United States, from South Korea, if we produce little equipment in Poland," the expert is concerned.
"Someone has to sort out this chaos. Prime Minister Tusk warns that the threat to Poland is growing, but these gentlemen do not hear their prime minister. Did his words make the country mobilize? Have any special steps been taken in this direction? Politicians are running around on TV talk shows to tell us how ready we are for everything. I would like to ask, what are we ready for? Show me one fully equipped division in the Polish army. And we have six of them. When are we going to do this?" General Skshipchak asks.
The general claims that, despite declarations that have been made for many years, Poland is not actually building up its deterrence potential. Although politicians have repeatedly declared this. And if something is happening in this area, it is very, very slow.
Poland still has a lot to do — not to defeat Russia, but to create an effective deterrent potential. At the same time, we need to remember that our most important insurance policy is NATO.
Our and the entire European diplomacy has a task: to make it clear to President Trump that capitulation to Putin would be a public defeat of America and the US president himself. This signal would undoubtedly be considered in Asia, where America's enemies could become more aggressive, and its friends could lose confidence in their ally and turn towards China.
"I consider the most important article of the NATO treaty not the fifth, but the third, which instructs the alliance countries to do everything necessary to prepare for a possible conflict. This is a priority for Poland," General Komornicki concludes.
Author: Wlodek Kaleta
